Group
Finish probabilities
1st 100.0%
2nd 0%
3rd place 0% Qualified from 3rd 0% Eliminated in 3rd 0%
4th 0%
Group D
USA
The host nation with the world's most athletic national team and a system that has not yet caught up to the talent. Pulisic is a Champions League-caliber player. The pressing is intense, the transitions are dangerous, and the tactical maturity is still developing. Home support will be enormous. Whether that helps or amplifies the pressure is genuinely unclear.
This profile summarizes USA's World Cup 2026 simulation path from the latest current-state snapshot: group outlook, finish distribution, possible knockout routes, opponent pools, squad context, and title chances.
Champion 0%
Group qualification 100%
Squad market €367.2m
Avg age 26.9
Avg height 1.832m
Manager Mauricio Pochettino
Current-state snapshot
This profile is based on 10k current-state simulations using the WC26 simulator engine. The numbers are a model snapshot, not a guarantee. Team ratings, squads and injury updates may change over time.
Latest result included: France 0-2 Spain
Guide
How to read this team profile
Group finish and stage reach values are model outputs from the latest current-state team profile snapshot. Path sections show how USA's route changes by group finish, while opponent pools summarize the teams most often appearing in each round.
This page uses Knockout-phase current-state snapshot using latest committed Match Updates, official locked results, current ratings, and fixed knockout bracket state as of 15 Jul 2026 1:47 PM UTC+3. Other public forecast pages may still use root compatibility datasets until they are updated separately, and custom Team Strength settings can change future tournament paths in the live simulator.
Tournament
Stage reach probabilities
R32 100%
R16 100%
QF 0%
SF 0%
Final 0%
Champion 0%
Conditional path
Path by group finish
| Finish | Sample | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 100.0% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 2nd | No longer possible | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3rd | No longer possible | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Overall opponent pool
Most common opponents by round
If reached shows the opponent split among this team's matches in that round. All sims shows how often the matchup happens across the latest current-state snapshot.
R32
Bosnia-Herz. If reached: 100.0% All sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 100.0% R16
Belgium If reached: 100.0% All sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 0% QF
No opponent samples.
SF
No opponent samples.
Final
No opponent samples.
Finish 1st
USA opponent pool if finishing 1st
For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.
R32
Bosnia-Herz. If reached: 100.0% Path sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 100.0% R16
Belgium If reached: 100.0% Path sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 0% QF
Not enough samples.
SF
Not enough samples.
Final
Not enough samples.
Finish 2nd
USA opponent pool if finishing 2nd
For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.
R32
No longer possible
R16
No longer possible
QF
No longer possible
SF
No longer possible
Final
No longer possible
Finish 3rd
USA opponent pool if finishing 3rd
For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.
R32
No longer possible
R16
No longer possible
QF
No longer possible
SF
No longer possible
Final
No longer possible
Squad
Current squad
| Pos | Player | Age | Height | Club | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GK | Matt Turner | 31 | 1,91m | New England Revolution | €2.5m |
| GK | Chris Brady | 22 | 1,90m | Chicago Fire FC | €2.5m |
| GK | Matt Freese | 27 | 1,93m | New York City FC | €2.0m |
| CB | Chris Richards | 26 | 1,88m | Crystal Palace | €25.0m |
| CB | Mark McKenzie | 27 | 1,84m | FC Toulouse | €6.0m |
| CB | Auston Trusty | 27 | 1,90m | Celtic FC | €6.0m |
| CB | Miles Robinson | 29 | 1,88m | FC Cincinnati | €3.5m |
| CB | Tim Ream | 38 | 1,86m | Charlotte FC | €200k |
| LB | Antonee Robinson | 28 | 1,83m | Fulham FC | €25.0m |
| RB | Sergiño Dest | 25 | 1.73m | PSV Eindhoven | €18.0m |
| RB | Joe Scally | 23 | 1,84m | Borussia Mönchengladbach | €7.0m |
| RB | Alex Freeman | 21 | 1,88m | Villarreal CF | €3.5m |
| DM | Tyler Adams | 27 | 1,75m | AFC Bournemouth | €25.0m |
| CM | Weston McKennie | 27 | 1,85m | Juventus FC | €30.0m |
| CM | Sebastian Berhalter | 25 | 1,75m | Vancouver Whitecaps FC | €5.0m |
| CM | Cristian Roldán | 31 | 1,73m | Seattle Sounders FC | €3.5m |
| RM | Timothy Weah | 26 | 1,83m | Olympique Marseille | €20.0m |
| AM | Malik Tillman | 24 | 1,87m | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | €30.0m |
| AM | Brenden Aaronson | 25 | 1,77m | Leeds United | €18.0m |
| AM | Giovanni Reyna | 23 | 1,87m | Borussia Mönchengladbach | €4.0m |
| LW | Max Arfsten | 25 | 1,85m | Columbus Crew | €4.5m |
| RW | Christian Pulisic | 27 | 1,77m | AC Milan | €40.0m |
| RW | Álex Zendejas | 28 | 1,67m | CF América | €10.0m |
| CF | Folarin Balogun | 24 | 1,78m | AS Monaco | €30.0m |
| CF | Ricardo Pepi | 23 | 1,85m | PSV Eindhoven | €30.0m |
| CF | Haji Wright | 28 | 1.91m | Coventry City | €16.0m |
Important note: This simulator and its probability outputs are for entertainment and informational purposes only. They are not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, trade, or participate in any prediction market. No real-money contest is offered or accepted on baplab.