Group D

USA USA

This profile is based on 100,000 simulations using the current WC26 simulator engine. The numbers are a model snapshot, not a guarantee. Team ratings, squads and injury updates may change over time.

Champion 1.4%
Group qualification 84.8%
Squad value €367.2m
Avg age 26.9
Avg height 1.832m
Manager Mauricio Pochettino

Group

Finish probabilities

1st 39.4%
2nd 30.0%
3rd qualified 15.4%
3rd not qualified 4.6%
4th 10.6%

Tournament

Stage reach probabilities

R32 84.8%
R16 50.5%
QF 22.9%
SF 9.3%
Final 3.6%
Champion 1.4%

Conditional path

Path by group finish

Finish Sample R32R16QFSFFinalChampion
1st 39.4% 100.0%62.8%32.5%11.7%4.7%1.8%
2nd 30.0% 100.0%64.9%24.9%11.4%4.4%1.5%
3rd 20.0% 77.0%31.7%13.1%6.2%2.3%0.9%

Overall opponent pool

Most common opponents by round

If reached shows the opponent split among this team's matches in that round. All sims shows how often the matchup happens across the full 100,000-simulation snapshot.

R32

Egypt Egypt If reached: 15.2% All sims: 12.9% Win rate: 64.7%
Bosnia-Herz. Bosnia-Herz. If reached: 11.1% All sims: 9.4% Win rate: 68.1%
Canada Canada If reached: 9.2% All sims: 7.8% Win rate: 61.7%
Iran Iran If reached: 7.9% All sims: 6.7% Win rate: 77.4%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 7.9% All sims: 6.7% Win rate: 41.7%

R16

Belgium Belgium If reached: 23.0% All sims: 11.6% Win rate: 41.9%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 18.5% All sims: 9.3% Win rate: 31.1%
Uruguay Uruguay If reached: 9.9% All sims: 5.0% Win rate: 46.9%
Spain Spain If reached: 5.6% All sims: 2.9% Win rate: 25.3%
Egypt Egypt If reached: 5.2% All sims: 2.6% Win rate: 64.6%

QF

Spain Spain If reached: 22.2% All sims: 5.1% Win rate: 26.3%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 15.4% All sims: 3.5% Win rate: 32.9%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 8.1% All sims: 1.9% Win rate: 44.8%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 6.6% All sims: 1.5% Win rate: 44.9%
England England If reached: 6.4% All sims: 1.5% Win rate: 30.5%

SF

France France If reached: 16.4% All sims: 1.5% Win rate: 28.7%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 10.3% All sims: 1.0% Win rate: 31.1%
Germany Germany If reached: 8.6% All sims: 0.8% Win rate: 38.0%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 8.3% All sims: 0.8% Win rate: 39.3%
England England If reached: 8.3% All sims: 0.8% Win rate: 30.2%

Final

Spain Spain If reached: 11.4% All sims: 0.4% Win rate: 26.5%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 11.1% All sims: 0.4% Win rate: 29.9%
France France If reached: 10.7% All sims: 0.4% Win rate: 25.8%
England England If reached: 8.6% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 32.3%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 8.3% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 35.0%

Finish 1st

USA opponent pool if finishing 1st

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Bosnia-Herz. Bosnia-Herz. If reached: 23.9% Path sims: 23.9% Win rate: 68.1%
Canada Canada If reached: 19.7% Path sims: 19.7% Win rate: 61.7%
Qatar Qatar If reached: 14.6% Path sims: 14.6% Win rate: 83.3%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 13.1% Path sims: 13.1% Win rate: 49.0%
Algeria Algeria If reached: 4.8% Path sims: 4.8% Win rate: 61.4%

R16

Belgium Belgium If reached: 46.8% Path sims: 29.4% Win rate: 42.0%
Egypt Egypt If reached: 10.5% Path sims: 6.6% Win rate: 64.7%
South Korea South Korea If reached: 8.1% Path sims: 5.1% Win rate: 57.1%
Czechia Czechia If reached: 8.0% Path sims: 5.0% Win rate: 61.6%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 7.5% Path sims: 4.7% Win rate: 51.5%

QF

Spain Spain If reached: 39.5% Path sims: 12.8% Win rate: 26.3%
England England If reached: 9.5% Path sims: 3.1% Win rate: 30.6%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 9.2% Path sims: 3.0% Win rate: 44.5%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 9.0% Path sims: 2.9% Win rate: 32.2%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 8.2% Path sims: 2.7% Win rate: 46.3%

SF

France France If reached: 25.5% Path sims: 3.0% Win rate: 29.0%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 13.1% Path sims: 1.5% Win rate: 39.4%
Germany Germany If reached: 12.2% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 38.9%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 8.1% Path sims: 0.9% Win rate: 29.7%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 5.5% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 46.1%

Final

Argentina Argentina If reached: 15.0% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 30.9%
England England If reached: 11.4% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 35.4%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 11.1% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 38.3%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 10.5% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 34.0%
France France If reached: 6.9% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 24.2%

Finish 2nd

USA opponent pool if finishing 2nd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Egypt Egypt If reached: 43.0% Path sims: 43.0% Win rate: 64.7%
Iran Iran If reached: 22.2% Path sims: 22.2% Win rate: 77.4%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 22.2% Path sims: 22.2% Win rate: 41.7%
New Zealand New Zealand If reached: 12.6% Path sims: 12.6% Win rate: 84.2%

R16

Argentina Argentina If reached: 47.3% Path sims: 30.7% Win rate: 31.0%
Uruguay Uruguay If reached: 24.0% Path sims: 15.6% Win rate: 46.5%
Spain Spain If reached: 14.0% Path sims: 9.1% Win rate: 25.2%
Austria Austria If reached: 8.0% Path sims: 5.2% Win rate: 54.4%
Algeria Algeria If reached: 4.0% Path sims: 2.6% Win rate: 61.7%

QF

Portugal Portugal If reached: 31.9% Path sims: 7.9% Win rate: 33.2%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 12.9% Path sims: 3.2% Win rate: 53.1%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 10.9% Path sims: 2.7% Win rate: 42.8%
Canada Canada If reached: 5.1% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 61.5%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 4.3% Path sims: 1.1% Win rate: 46.4%

SF

England England If reached: 19.6% Path sims: 2.2% Win rate: 30.9%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 16.6% Path sims: 1.9% Win rate: 31.9%
France France If reached: 9.8% Path sims: 1.1% Win rate: 28.4%
Norway Norway If reached: 7.5% Path sims: 0.9% Win rate: 38.3%
Germany Germany If reached: 6.5% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 35.7%

Final

Spain Spain If reached: 20.1% Path sims: 0.9% Win rate: 22.2%
France France If reached: 16.8% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 24.8%
Germany Germany If reached: 6.9% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 34.1%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 6.0% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 43.0%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 5.7% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 41.3%

Finish 3rd

USA opponent pool if finishing 3rd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Germany Germany If reached: 37.9% Path sims: 29.2% Win rate: 35.7%
Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 16.5% Path sims: 12.7% Win rate: 50.9%
France France If reached: 15.2% Path sims: 11.7% Win rate: 27.4%
Ivory Coast Ivory Coast If reached: 14.8% Path sims: 11.4% Win rate: 52.9%
Norway Norway If reached: 6.1% Path sims: 4.7% Win rate: 42.8%

R16

France France If reached: 36.1% Path sims: 11.4% Win rate: 27.1%
Norway Norway If reached: 11.5% Path sims: 3.6% Win rate: 47.7%
Germany Germany If reached: 8.5% Path sims: 2.7% Win rate: 42.4%
Japan Japan If reached: 6.5% Path sims: 2.1% Win rate: 48.9%
Sweden Sweden If reached: 6.3% Path sims: 2.0% Win rate: 53.9%

QF

Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 21.1% Path sims: 2.8% Win rate: 38.9%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 12.0% Path sims: 1.6% Win rate: 31.8%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 10.1% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 45.7%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 7.4% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 53.1%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 7.4% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 52.3%

SF

Spain Spain If reached: 26.6% Path sims: 1.7% Win rate: 25.2%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 13.6% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 45.0%
England England If reached: 8.2% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 25.5%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 6.5% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 20.0%
Türkiye Türkiye If reached: 6.1% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 49.3%

Final

Argentina Argentina If reached: 18.0% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 26.2%
England England If reached: 11.2% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 26.9%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 9.2% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 32.6%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 9.2% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 32.6%
France France If reached: 8.8% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 36.6%

Squad

Current squad

26 players
Pos Player Age Height Club Value
GK Matt Turner 31 1,91m New England Revolution €2.5m
GK Chris Brady 22 1,90m Chicago Fire FC €2.5m
GK Matt Freese 27 1,93m New York City FC €2.0m
CB Chris Richards 26 1,88m Crystal Palace €25.0m
CB Mark McKenzie 27 1,84m FC Toulouse €6.0m
CB Auston Trusty 27 1,90m Celtic FC €6.0m
CB Miles Robinson 29 1,88m FC Cincinnati €3.5m
CB Tim Ream 38 1,86m Charlotte FC €200k
LB Antonee Robinson 28 1,83m Fulham FC €25.0m
RB Sergiño Dest 25 1.73m PSV Eindhoven €18.0m
RB Joe Scally 23 1,84m Borussia Mönchengladbach €7.0m
RB Alex Freeman 21 1,88m Villarreal CF €3.5m
DM Tyler Adams 27 1,75m AFC Bournemouth €25.0m
CM Weston McKennie 27 1,85m Juventus FC €30.0m
CM Sebastian Berhalter 25 1,75m Vancouver Whitecaps FC €5.0m
CM Cristian Roldán 31 1,73m Seattle Sounders FC €3.5m
RM Timothy Weah 26 1,83m Olympique Marseille €20.0m
AM Malik Tillman 24 1,87m Bayer 04 Leverkusen €30.0m
AM Brenden Aaronson 25 1,77m Leeds United €18.0m
AM Giovanni Reyna 23 1,87m Borussia Mönchengladbach €4.0m
LW Max Arfsten 25 1,85m Columbus Crew €4.5m
RW Christian Pulisic 27 1,77m AC Milan €40.0m
RW Álex Zendejas 28 1,67m CF América €10.0m
CF Folarin Balogun 24 1,78m AS Monaco €30.0m
CF Ricardo Pepi 23 1,85m PSV Eindhoven €30.0m
CF Haji Wright 28 1.91m Coventry City €16.0m