WC26 Simulator

Latest current-state group forecasts

Latest current-state group forecasts with expected tables and finish-position probabilities.

This page uses the latest archived current-state group forecast snapshot as a simulation reference for the current tournament state.

xP is the average points across simulations. Finish probabilities show final group rank after tie-breaks and simulated scorelines, so a team with lower xP can still have a higher chance of finishing 1st.

10k current-state simulations 12 groups 48 teams

Group A

Finish probabilities

# Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Q
1 Mexico Mexico 48.0% 33.0% 18.2% 0.8% 97.0%
2 South Korea South Korea 45.3% 40.6% 12.5% 1.6% 97.0%
3 Czechia Czechia 6.0% 22.1% 51.4% 20.5% 63.5%
4 South Africa South Africa 0.7% 4.3% 17.9% 77.1% 15.2%

Expected metrics

Team xGA xGD xGF xP
Mexico Mexico 2.21 +2.44 4.65 6.06
South Korea South Korea 3.12 +1.96 5.08 6.36
Czechia Czechia 4.17 -0.35 3.82 3.18
South Africa South Africa 5.69 -4.05 1.64 1.41

Group B

Finish probabilities

# Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Q
1 Switzerland Switzerland 41.7% 25.5% 22.0% 10.8% 80.5%
2 Canada Canada 29.1% 29.6% 24.7% 16.6% 75.3%
3 Bosnia-Herz. Bosnia-Herz. 20.6% 27.6% 28.3% 23.5% 67.4%
4 Qatar Qatar 8.6% 17.2% 25.0% 49.1% 41.9%

Expected metrics

Team xGA xGD xGF xP
Switzerland Switzerland 2.81 +1.05 3.86 4.49
Canada Canada 3.18 +0.40 3.58 4.04
Bosnia-Herz. Bosnia-Herz. 3.35 -0.06 3.29 3.70
Qatar Qatar 4.07 -1.39 2.68 2.74

Group C

Finish probabilities

# Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Q
1 Brazil Brazil 53.4% 30.3% 13.1% 3.2% 95.0%
2 Morocco Morocco 27.2% 40.9% 24.2% 7.7% 87.2%
3 Scotland Scotland 18.7% 27.1% 50.4% 3.9% 82.0%
4 Haiti Haiti 0.8% 1.7% 12.3% 85.2% 10.2%

Expected metrics

Team xGA xGD xGF xP
Brazil Brazil 2.32 +2.99 5.31 5.62
Morocco Morocco 2.60 +1.69 4.29 4.93
Scotland Scotland 3.18 -0.59 2.60 4.64
Haiti Haiti 5.41 -4.09 1.33 0.97

Group D

Finish probabilities

# Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Q
1 USA USA 69.9% 19.4% 9.7% 1.0% 98.3%
2 Australia Australia 23.3% 45.5% 26.0% 5.2% 90.0%
3 Türkiye Türkiye 4.8% 20.2% 38.6% 36.4% 50.7%
4 Paraguay Paraguay 2.0% 14.8% 25.7% 57.4% 34.4%

Expected metrics

Team xGA xGD xGF xP
USA USA 2.89 +3.78 6.67 6.29
Australia Australia 2.65 +1.02 3.68 5.00
Türkiye Türkiye 4.11 -1.61 2.49 3.01
Paraguay Paraguay 6.28 -3.19 3.09 2.59

Group E

Finish probabilities

# Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Q
1 Germany Germany 68.8% 22.9% 8.2% 0.1% 99.8%
2 Ivory Coast Ivory Coast 29.5% 57.5% 12.7% 0.4% 98.0%
3 Ecuador Ecuador 1.6% 18.4% 70.5% 9.5% 71.5%
4 Curaçao Curaçao 0.0% 1.3% 8.6% 90.0% 4.2%

Expected metrics

Team xGA xGD xGF xP
Germany Germany 2.77 +7.30 10.07 6.67
Ivory Coast Ivory Coast 2.21 +1.99 4.20 6.31
Ecuador Ecuador 3.08 +0.01 3.09 3.35
Curaçao Curaçao 11.52 -9.30 2.22 0.83

Group F

Finish probabilities

# Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Q
1 Netherlands Netherlands 39.5% 34.4% 21.6% 4.4% 92.1%
2 Sweden Sweden 35.3% 28.6% 35.3% 0.8% 97.5%
3 Japan Japan 24.8% 35.3% 32.1% 7.8% 86.2%
4 Tunisia Tunisia 0.4% 1.6% 10.9% 87.0% 6.7%

Expected metrics

Team xGA xGD xGF xP
Netherlands Netherlands 3.62 +2.31 5.92 5.22
Sweden Sweden 3.91 +3.26 7.17 5.23
Japan Japan 3.94 +1.49 5.44 4.72
Tunisia Tunisia 9.45 -7.06 2.39 0.97

Group G

Finish probabilities

# Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Q
1 Belgium Belgium 59.3% 30.4% 7.3% 3.1% 95.3%
2 Egypt Egypt 31.1% 47.0% 14.4% 7.5% 88.3%
3 Iran Iran 6.0% 13.6% 43.0% 37.5% 34.5%
4 New Zealand New Zealand 3.7% 9.1% 35.3% 51.9% 24.8%

Expected metrics

Team xGA xGD xGF xP
Belgium Belgium 2.40 +3.24 5.64 5.76
Egypt Egypt 3.00 +1.92 4.92 5.00
Iran Iran 6.13 -2.26 3.87 2.41
New Zealand New Zealand 6.43 -2.89 3.54 2.07

Group H

Finish probabilities

# Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Q
1 Spain Spain 63.7% 23.6% 10.1% 2.7% 94.5%
2 Uruguay Uruguay 25.9% 37.9% 25.0% 11.2% 77.8%
3 Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia 5.5% 16.6% 33.9% 44.1% 42.5%
4 Cape Verde Cape Verde 5.0% 22.0% 31.0% 42.0% 47.9%

Expected metrics

Team xGA xGD xGF xP
Spain Spain 1.32 +2.71 4.04 5.48
Uruguay Uruguay 3.23 +0.46 3.69 4.04
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia 4.49 -1.94 2.55 2.67
Cape Verde Cape Verde 2.91 -1.23 1.68 2.91

Group I

Finish probabilities

# Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Q
1 France France 74.0% 24.3% 1.7% 0.0% 99.9%
2 Norway Norway 24.6% 53.1% 22.1% 0.2% 97.3%
3 Senegal Senegal 1.3% 22.0% 65.1% 11.6% 63.1%
4 Iraq Iraq 0.1% 0.6% 11.1% 88.2% 4.3%

Expected metrics

Team xGA xGD xGF xP
France France 2.50 +5.45 7.94 7.63
Norway Norway 3.93 +2.71 6.64 5.56
Senegal Senegal 5.37 -1.13 4.25 3.32
Iraq Iraq 9.26 -7.03 2.23 0.74

Group J

Finish probabilities

# Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Q
1 Argentina Argentina 83.5% 15.8% 0.7% 0.1% 99.9%
2 Austria Austria 15.8% 61.5% 22.5% 0.2% 94.5%
3 Algeria Algeria 0.7% 21.7% 58.9% 18.7% 54.6%
4 Jordan Jordan 0.0% 1.1% 17.9% 81.0% 7.1%

Expected metrics

Team xGA xGD xGF xP
Argentina Argentina 1.40 +6.81 8.21 7.78
Austria Austria 3.78 +1.43 5.21 5.38
Algeria Algeria 5.19 -2.21 2.98 3.25
Jordan Jordan 8.41 -6.04 2.37 0.82

Group K

Finish probabilities

# Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Q
1 Colombia Colombia 48.4% 32.2% 18.3% 1.1% 96.9%
2 Portugal Portugal 41.1% 37.4% 17.2% 4.3% 91.4%
3 DR Congo DR Congo 9.7% 26.2% 43.2% 21.0% 65.5%
4 Uzbekistan Uzbekistan 0.8% 4.2% 21.3% 73.7% 16.0%

Expected metrics

Team xGA xGD xGF xP
Colombia Colombia 3.22 +2.26 5.48 5.92
Portugal Portugal 2.55 +2.09 4.64 5.10
DR Congo DR Congo 3.46 -0.21 3.25 3.60
Uzbekistan Uzbekistan 6.67 -4.15 2.53 1.41

Group L

Finish probabilities

# Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Q
1 England England 88.7% 9.8% 1.4% 0.1% 99.8%
2 Ghana Ghana 8.0% 35.5% 52.6% 3.9% 76.9%
3 Croatia Croatia 3.1% 52.0% 34.4% 10.5% 77.6%
4 Panama Panama 0.2% 2.7% 11.6% 85.5% 8.1%

Expected metrics

Team xGA xGD xGF xP
England England 3.19 +5.26 8.45 7.80
Ghana Ghana 3.53 -0.95 2.58 4.48
Croatia Croatia 5.48 -0.14 5.33 4.04
Panama Panama 5.25 -4.17 1.08 0.86

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Important note: This simulator and its probability outputs are for entertainment and informational purposes only. They are not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, trade, or participate in any prediction market. No real-money contest is offered or accepted on baplab.