WC26 Simulator

Latest current-state group forecasts

Latest current-state group forecasts with expected tables and finish-position probabilities.

This page uses the latest archived current-state group forecast snapshot as a simulation reference for the current tournament state.

xP is the average points across simulations. Finish probabilities show final group rank after tie-breaks and simulated scorelines, so a team with lower xP can still have a higher chance of finishing 1st.

10k current-state simulations 12 groups 48 teams

Group A

Finish probabilities

# Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Q
1 Mexico Mexico 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
2 South Africa South Africa 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
3 South Korea South Korea 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Czechia Czechia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

Expected metrics

Team xGA xGD xGF xP
Mexico Mexico 0.00 +6.00 6.00 9.00
South Africa South Africa 3.00 -1.00 2.00 4.00
South Korea South Korea 3.00 -1.00 2.00 3.00
Czechia Czechia 6.00 -4.00 2.00 1.00

Group B

Finish probabilities

# Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Q
1 Switzerland Switzerland 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
2 Canada Canada 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
3 Bosnia-Herz. Bosnia-Herz. 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0%
4 Qatar Qatar 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

Expected metrics

Team xGA xGD xGF xP
Switzerland Switzerland 3.00 +4.00 7.00 7.00
Canada Canada 3.00 +5.00 8.00 4.00
Bosnia-Herz. Bosnia-Herz. 6.00 -1.00 5.00 4.00
Qatar Qatar 10.00 -8.00 2.00 1.00

Group C

Finish probabilities

# Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Q
1 Brazil Brazil 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
2 Morocco Morocco 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
3 Scotland Scotland 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Haiti Haiti 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

Expected metrics

Team xGA xGD xGF xP
Brazil Brazil 1.00 +6.00 7.00 7.00
Morocco Morocco 3.00 +3.00 6.00 7.00
Scotland Scotland 4.00 -3.00 1.00 3.00
Haiti Haiti 8.00 -6.00 2.00 0.00

Group D

Finish probabilities

# Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Q
1 USA USA 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
2 Australia Australia 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
3 Paraguay Paraguay 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0%
4 Türkiye Türkiye 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

Expected metrics

Team xGA xGD xGF xP
USA USA 4.00 +4.00 8.00 6.00
Australia Australia 2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00
Paraguay Paraguay 4.00 -2.00 2.00 4.00
Türkiye Türkiye 5.00 -2.00 3.00 3.00

Group E

Finish probabilities

# Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Q
1 Germany Germany 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
2 Ivory Coast Ivory Coast 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
3 Ecuador Ecuador 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0%
4 Curaçao Curaçao 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

Expected metrics

Team xGA xGD xGF xP
Germany Germany 4.00 +6.00 10.00 6.00
Ivory Coast Ivory Coast 2.00 +2.00 4.00 6.00
Ecuador Ecuador 2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00
Curaçao Curaçao 9.00 -8.00 1.00 1.00

Group F

Finish probabilities

# Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Q
1 Netherlands Netherlands 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
2 Japan Japan 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
3 Sweden Sweden 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0%
4 Tunisia Tunisia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

Expected metrics

Team xGA xGD xGF xP
Netherlands Netherlands 4.00 +6.00 10.00 7.00
Japan Japan 3.00 +4.00 7.00 5.00
Sweden Sweden 7.00 0.00 7.00 4.00
Tunisia Tunisia 12.00 -10.00 2.00 0.00

Group G

Finish probabilities

# Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Q
1 Belgium Belgium 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
2 Egypt Egypt 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
3 Iran Iran 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 New Zealand New Zealand 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

Expected metrics

Team xGA xGD xGF xP
Belgium Belgium 2.00 +4.00 6.00 5.00
Egypt Egypt 3.00 +2.00 5.00 5.00
Iran Iran 3.00 0.00 3.00 3.00
New Zealand New Zealand 10.00 -6.00 4.00 1.00

Group H

Finish probabilities

# Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Q
1 Spain Spain 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
2 Cape Verde Cape Verde 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
3 Uruguay Uruguay 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

Expected metrics

Team xGA xGD xGF xP
Spain Spain 0.00 +5.00 5.00 7.00
Cape Verde Cape Verde 2.00 0.00 2.00 3.00
Uruguay Uruguay 4.00 -1.00 3.00 2.00
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia 5.00 -4.00 1.00 2.00

Group I

Finish probabilities

# Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Q
1 France France 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
2 Norway Norway 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
3 Senegal Senegal 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0%
4 Iraq Iraq 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

Expected metrics

Team xGA xGD xGF xP
France France 2.00 +8.00 10.00 9.00
Norway Norway 7.00 +1.00 8.00 6.00
Senegal Senegal 6.00 +2.00 8.00 3.00
Iraq Iraq 12.00 -11.00 1.00 0.00

Group J

Finish probabilities

# Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Q
1 Argentina Argentina 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
2 Austria Austria 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
3 Algeria Algeria 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0%
4 Jordan Jordan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

Expected metrics

Team xGA xGD xGF xP
Argentina Argentina 1.00 +7.00 8.00 9.00
Austria Austria 6.00 0.00 6.00 4.00
Algeria Algeria 7.00 -2.00 5.00 4.00
Jordan Jordan 8.00 -5.00 3.00 0.00

Group K

Finish probabilities

# Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Q
1 Colombia Colombia 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
2 Portugal Portugal 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
3 DR Congo DR Congo 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0%
4 Uzbekistan Uzbekistan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

Expected metrics

Team xGA xGD xGF xP
Colombia Colombia 1.00 +3.00 4.00 7.00
Portugal Portugal 1.00 +5.00 6.00 5.00
DR Congo DR Congo 3.00 +1.00 4.00 4.00
Uzbekistan Uzbekistan 11.00 -9.00 2.00 0.00

Group L

Finish probabilities

# Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Q
1 England England 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
2 Croatia Croatia 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
3 Ghana Ghana 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0%
4 Panama Panama 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

Expected metrics

Team xGA xGD xGF xP
England England 2.00 +4.00 6.00 7.00
Croatia Croatia 5.00 0.00 5.00 6.00
Ghana Ghana 2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00
Panama Panama 4.00 -4.00 0.00 0.00

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Important note: This simulator and its probability outputs are for entertainment and informational purposes only. They are not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, trade, or participate in any prediction market. No real-money contest is offered or accepted on baplab.