Match analysis
USA vs Paraguay 
Match forecast and score distribution for Match 4, Group D, generated from the current simulator ratings.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: USA 4-1 Paraguay ยท Final. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Goal bands
Total goals distribution
0 8.7%
1 21.4%
2 26.0%
3 20.9%
4 12.7%
5+ 10.3%
Goal thresholds
Total-goal thresholds
Total 0.5 At least 91.3% Below 8.7%
Total 1.5 At least 69.9% Below 30.1%
Total 2.5 At least 43.9% Below 56.1%
Total 3.5 At least 23.0% Below 77.0%
Total 4.5 At least 10.3% Below 89.8%
Team goals
USA goal thresholds
USA 0.5 At least 77.2% Below 22.8%
USA 1.5 At least 43.5% Below 56.5%
USA 2.5 At least 18.7% Below 81.3%
USA 3.5 At least 6.5% Below 93.5%
USA 4.5 At least 1.8% Below 98.2%
Team goals
Paraguay goal thresholds
Paraguay 0.5 At least 61.4% Below 38.6%
Paraguay 1.5 At least 25.0% Below 75.0%
Paraguay 2.5 At least 7.5% Below 92.5%
Paraguay 3.5 At least 1.8% Below 98.3%
Paraguay 4.5 At least 0.3% Below 99.7%
Scoring frequency
Both teams scoring
Both teams score 47.3%
USA clean sheet 38.6%
Paraguay clean sheet 22.8%
Common scorelines
Top exact scores
1 USA 1-0 Paraguay 13.0%
2 USA 1-1 Paraguay 12.4%
3 USA 2-0 Paraguay 9.6%
4 USA 2-1 Paraguay 9.0%
5 USA 0-0 Paraguay 8.7%
6 USA 0-1 Paraguay 8.4%
7 USA 1-2 Paraguay 5.7%
8 USA 3-0 Paraguay 4.7%
9 USA 2-2 Paraguay 4.4%
10 USA 3-1 Paraguay 4.3%
Guide
What this simulation preview shows
This page is a direct match simulation reference for one fixture. It uses the simulator's current team ratings and venue context to estimate score patterns, not a full tournament-path run.
Score distribution
How to read the numbers
Average score is the mean goals per team across all runs. Total-goal bands group matches by combined goals, both-team scoring frequency shows how often each side scores at least once, and common scorelines show the most frequent exact results in the sample.
Model note
Simulation reference, not certainty
A real match can land far away from the most common model outcomes. Use these outputs as a way to understand the range of plausible scorelines, not as a guarantee or betting advice.