Group D

Türkiye Türkiye

This profile is based on 100,000 simulations using the current WC26 simulator engine. The numbers are a model snapshot, not a guarantee. Team ratings, squads and injury updates may change over time.

Champion 1.4%
Group qualification 84.2%
Squad value €472.7m
Avg age 27.7
Avg height 1.838m
Manager Vincenzo Montella

Group

Finish probabilities

1st 37.5%
2nd 31.0%
3rd qualified 15.7%
3rd not qualified 4.9%
4th 11.0%

Tournament

Stage reach probabilities

R32 84.2%
R16 49.7%
QF 22.7%
SF 9.4%
Final 3.7%
Champion 1.4%

Conditional path

Path by group finish

Finish Sample R32R16QFSFFinalChampion
1st 37.5% 100.0%62.1%32.7%12.2%5.0%1.9%
2nd 31.0% 100.0%64.6%24.8%11.4%4.4%1.5%
3rd 20.5% 76.4%31.2%13.2%6.4%2.5%0.9%

Overall opponent pool

Most common opponents by round

If reached shows the opponent split among this team's matches in that round. All sims shows how often the matchup happens across the full 100,000-simulation snapshot.

R32

Egypt Egypt If reached: 15.9% All sims: 13.4% Win rate: 64.3%
Bosnia-Herz. Bosnia-Herz. If reached: 11.0% All sims: 9.3% Win rate: 67.0%
Canada Canada If reached: 8.6% All sims: 7.3% Win rate: 60.7%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 8.4% All sims: 7.1% Win rate: 42.9%
Germany Germany If reached: 8.0% All sims: 6.7% Win rate: 36.3%

R16

Belgium Belgium If reached: 22.0% All sims: 10.9% Win rate: 43.6%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 19.5% All sims: 9.7% Win rate: 31.5%
Uruguay Uruguay If reached: 10.2% All sims: 5.1% Win rate: 46.8%
Spain Spain If reached: 5.9% All sims: 2.9% Win rate: 25.9%
Egypt Egypt If reached: 5.0% All sims: 2.5% Win rate: 63.8%

QF

Spain Spain If reached: 20.9% All sims: 4.7% Win rate: 26.7%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 15.6% All sims: 3.5% Win rate: 35.0%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 8.0% All sims: 1.8% Win rate: 46.2%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 6.4% All sims: 1.4% Win rate: 49.8%
England England If reached: 6.3% All sims: 1.4% Win rate: 28.5%

SF

France France If reached: 15.8% All sims: 1.5% Win rate: 28.6%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 10.1% All sims: 1.0% Win rate: 31.9%
Germany Germany If reached: 8.5% All sims: 0.8% Win rate: 37.4%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 8.3% All sims: 0.8% Win rate: 38.2%
England England If reached: 8.1% All sims: 0.8% Win rate: 27.9%

Final

Argentina Argentina If reached: 11.5% All sims: 0.4% Win rate: 31.9%
Spain Spain If reached: 11.4% All sims: 0.4% Win rate: 25.4%
France France If reached: 10.7% All sims: 0.4% Win rate: 24.9%
England England If reached: 9.3% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 29.5%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 8.4% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 27.2%

Finish 1st

Türkiye opponent pool if finishing 1st

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Bosnia-Herz. Bosnia-Herz. If reached: 24.7% Path sims: 24.7% Win rate: 67.0%
Canada Canada If reached: 19.4% Path sims: 19.4% Win rate: 60.7%
Qatar Qatar If reached: 14.8% Path sims: 14.8% Win rate: 82.8%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 12.6% Path sims: 12.6% Win rate: 49.3%
Algeria Algeria If reached: 4.8% Path sims: 4.8% Win rate: 62.6%

R16

Belgium Belgium If reached: 46.8% Path sims: 29.1% Win rate: 43.6%
Egypt Egypt If reached: 10.5% Path sims: 6.5% Win rate: 63.8%
Czechia Czechia If reached: 8.2% Path sims: 5.1% Win rate: 65.4%
South Korea South Korea If reached: 8.1% Path sims: 5.0% Win rate: 57.8%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 7.2% Path sims: 4.5% Win rate: 51.3%

QF

Spain Spain If reached: 38.4% Path sims: 12.5% Win rate: 26.7%
England England If reached: 9.7% Path sims: 3.2% Win rate: 28.5%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 9.3% Path sims: 3.1% Win rate: 50.1%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 8.8% Path sims: 2.9% Win rate: 36.0%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 8.2% Path sims: 2.7% Win rate: 47.5%

SF

France France If reached: 24.7% Path sims: 3.0% Win rate: 29.5%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 13.6% Path sims: 1.7% Win rate: 38.2%
Germany Germany If reached: 11.4% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 38.6%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 8.3% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 30.3%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 6.4% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 48.8%

Final

Argentina Argentina If reached: 16.2% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 32.8%
England England If reached: 12.8% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 30.7%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 10.8% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 33.3%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 10.3% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 28.9%
France France If reached: 7.3% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 26.3%

Finish 2nd

Türkiye opponent pool if finishing 2nd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Egypt Egypt If reached: 43.3% Path sims: 43.3% Win rate: 64.3%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 22.8% Path sims: 22.8% Win rate: 42.9%
Iran Iran If reached: 21.3% Path sims: 21.3% Win rate: 77.4%
New Zealand New Zealand If reached: 12.6% Path sims: 12.6% Win rate: 83.2%

R16

Argentina Argentina If reached: 47.8% Path sims: 30.9% Win rate: 31.5%
Uruguay Uruguay If reached: 23.7% Path sims: 15.3% Win rate: 47.0%
Spain Spain If reached: 14.0% Path sims: 9.1% Win rate: 25.7%
Austria Austria If reached: 7.8% Path sims: 5.1% Win rate: 52.8%
Algeria Algeria If reached: 3.7% Path sims: 2.4% Win rate: 61.1%

QF

Portugal Portugal If reached: 32.0% Path sims: 7.9% Win rate: 34.5%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 12.9% Path sims: 3.2% Win rate: 50.2%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 10.4% Path sims: 2.6% Win rate: 44.7%
Canada Canada If reached: 5.0% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 61.7%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 4.0% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 48.7%

SF

England England If reached: 19.3% Path sims: 2.2% Win rate: 27.6%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 15.8% Path sims: 1.8% Win rate: 33.0%
France France If reached: 9.4% Path sims: 1.1% Win rate: 25.2%
Norway Norway If reached: 7.8% Path sims: 0.9% Win rate: 40.2%
Germany Germany If reached: 7.6% Path sims: 0.9% Win rate: 35.4%

Final

Spain Spain If reached: 19.6% Path sims: 0.9% Win rate: 21.9%
France France If reached: 16.5% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 19.7%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 6.4% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 34.5%
Germany Germany If reached: 5.9% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 27.8%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 5.9% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 43.0%

Finish 3rd

Türkiye opponent pool if finishing 3rd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Germany Germany If reached: 39.3% Path sims: 30.0% Win rate: 36.5%
Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 15.9% Path sims: 12.1% Win rate: 50.6%
France France If reached: 15.4% Path sims: 11.8% Win rate: 27.2%
Ivory Coast Ivory Coast If reached: 14.1% Path sims: 10.8% Win rate: 53.7%
Norway Norway If reached: 6.5% Path sims: 5.0% Win rate: 42.4%

R16

France France If reached: 35.7% Path sims: 11.1% Win rate: 28.8%
Norway Norway If reached: 12.2% Path sims: 3.8% Win rate: 45.3%
Germany Germany If reached: 8.2% Path sims: 2.6% Win rate: 37.4%
Sweden Sweden If reached: 6.6% Path sims: 2.1% Win rate: 51.1%
Japan Japan If reached: 6.5% Path sims: 2.0% Win rate: 52.7%

QF

Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 20.4% Path sims: 2.7% Win rate: 36.9%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 10.8% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 32.2%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 10.1% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 50.5%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 8.5% Path sims: 1.1% Win rate: 50.9%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 7.4% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 58.0%

SF

Spain Spain If reached: 27.3% Path sims: 1.7% Win rate: 32.9%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 11.6% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 40.5%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 7.0% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 30.4%
England England If reached: 6.6% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 29.9%
USA USA If reached: 6.3% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 44.6%

Final

Argentina Argentina If reached: 13.7% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 26.1%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 12.5% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 30.2%
England England If reached: 11.3% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 24.6%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 10.7% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 27.8%
France France If reached: 8.1% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 48.8%

Squad

Current squad

26 players
Pos Player Age Height Club Value
GK Uğurcan Çakır 30 1,91m Galatasaray €15.0m
GK Altay Bayındır 28 1,98m Manchester United €7.0m
GK Mert Günok 37 1,96m Fenerbahçe €500k
CB Ozan Kabak 26 1,87m TSG 1899 Hoffenheim €15.0m
CB Merih Demiral 28 1,90m Al-Ahli SFC €14.0m
CB Abdülkerim Bardakcı 31 1,85m Galatasaray €6.5m
CB Çağlar Söyüncü 30 1,85m Fenerbahçe €3.5m
CB Samet Akaydin 32 1,90m Caykur Rizespor €1.2m
LB Ferdi Kadıoğlu 26 1,74m Brighton & Hove Albion €30.0m
LB Eren Elmalı 25 1,81m Galatasaray €5.0m
RB Zeki Çelik 29 1,80m AS Roma €14.0m
RB Mert Müldür 27 1,84m Fenerbahçe €7.0m
DM Hakan Çalhanoğlu 32 1,78m Inter Milan €16.0m
DM İsmail Yüksek 27 1,83m Fenerbahçe €15.0m
DM Salih Özcan 28 1,83m Borussia Dortmund €3.5m
DM Kaan Ayhan 31 1,85m Galatasaray €1.5m
CM Orkun Kökçü 25 1,75m Beşiktaş €25.0m
AM Arda Güler 21 1,75m Real Madrid €90.0m
AM Can Uzun 20 1,86m Eintracht Frankfurt €45.0m
LW Kenan Yıldız 21 1,87m Juventus FC €75.0m
LW Barış Alper Yılmaz 26 1,86m Galatasaray €30.0m
LW Kerem Aktürkoğlu 27 1,73m Fenerbahçe €20.0m
LW Oğuz Aydın 25 1,83m Fenerbahçe €7.0m
RW Yunus Akgün 25 1,73m Galatasaray €18.0m
RW İrfan Can Kahveci 30 1,80m Kasımpaşa €3.0m
CF Deniz Gül 21 1,90m FC Porto €5.0m