Group
Finish probabilities
1st 0%
2nd 0%
3rd place 100.0% Qualified from 3rd 0% Eliminated in 3rd 100.0%
4th 0%
Group H
Uruguay
Two World Cup wins from 1930 and 1950, and a chip on the shoulder that has never faded. Defensive solidity is a point of national pride. Núñez provides a physical attacking threat. The creativity is limited, the forwards are aging, and the possession play is conservative. They will be unpleasant to face and that is entirely the point.
This profile summarizes Uruguay's World Cup 2026 simulation path from the latest current-state snapshot: group outlook, finish distribution, possible knockout routes, opponent pools, squad context, and title chances.
Champion 0%
Group qualification 0%
Squad market €405.8m
Avg age 28.8
Avg height 1.815m
Manager Marcelo Bielsa
Saved forecast
Forecast as of Updated 2026-07-15 10:47 UTC, based on 10k current-state simulations. Tournament-wide official results included at that time stay fixed. These are saved model forecasts, not the team's actual final finish.
Tournament-wide result cutoff: France 0-2 Spain
Guide
How to read this team profile
Group finish and stage reach values are model outputs from the latest current-state team profile snapshot. Path sections show how Uruguay's route changes by group finish, while opponent pools summarize the teams most often appearing in each round.
Other forecast pages may show a different saved date. The interactive replay simulator is separate: changing Team Strength settings creates alternative scenarios without changing this saved forecast.
Tournament
Stage reach probabilities
R32 0%
R16 0%
QF 0%
SF 0%
Final 0%
Champion 0%
Conditional path
Path by group finish
| Finish | Sample | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | No longer possible | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2nd | No longer possible | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3rd | 100.0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Overall opponent pool
Most common opponents by round
If reached shows the opponent split among this team's matches in that round. All sims shows how often the matchup happens across the latest current-state snapshot.
R32
No opponent samples.
R16
No opponent samples.
QF
No opponent samples.
SF
No opponent samples.
Final
No opponent samples.
Finish 1st
Uruguay opponent pool if finishing 1st
For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.
R32
No longer possible
R16
No longer possible
QF
No longer possible
SF
No longer possible
Final
No longer possible
Finish 2nd
Uruguay opponent pool if finishing 2nd
For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.
R32
No longer possible
R16
No longer possible
QF
No longer possible
SF
No longer possible
Final
No longer possible
Finish 3rd
Uruguay opponent pool if finishing 3rd
For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.
R32
Not enough samples.
R16
Not enough samples.
QF
Not enough samples.
SF
Not enough samples.
Final
Not enough samples.
Squad
Current squad
| Pos | Player | Age | Height | Club | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GK | Santiago Mele | 28 | 1,84m | CF Monterrey | €2.0m |
| GK | Sergio Rochet | 33 | 1,90m | Sport Club Internacional | €1.8m |
| GK | Fernando Muslera | 39 | 1,90m | Club Estudiantes de La Plata | €700k |
| CB | Ronald Araújo | 27 | 1,92m | FC Barcelona | €20.0m |
| CB | José María Giménez | 31 | 1,85m | Atlético de Madrid | €12.0m |
| CB | Santiago Bueno | 27 | 1,90m | Wolverhampton Wanderers | €10.0m |
| CB | Sebastián Cáceres | 26 | 1,82m | CF América | €4.5m |
| LB | Maxi Araújo | 26 | 1,79m | Sporting CP | €35.0m |
| LB | Mathías Olivera | 28 | 1,85m | SSC Napoli | €15.0m |
| LB | Joaquín Piquerez | 27 | 1,84m | Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | €12.0m |
| LB | Juan Manuel Sanabria | 26 | 1,72m | Real Salt Lake City | €4.5m |
| LB | Matías Viña | 28 | 1,80m | CA River Plate | €3.5m |
| RB | Guillermo Varela | 33 | 1,73m | CR Flamengo | €1.0m |
| DM | Manuel Ugarte | 25 | 1,82m | Manchester United | €30.0m |
| DM | Rodrigo Bentancur | 28 | 1,87m | Tottenham Hotspur | €22.0m |
| DM | Emiliano Martínez | 26 | 1,85m | Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | €6.5m |
| CM | Federico Valverde | 27 | 1,82m | Real Madrid | €120.0m |
| CM | Nicolás De La Cruz | 29 | 1,67m | CR Flamengo | €8.0m |
| AM | Rodrigo Zalazar | 26 | 1,79m | SC Braga | €30.0m |
| AM | Giorgian De Arrascaeta | 32 | 1,74m | CR Flamengo | €14.0m |
| LW | Brian Rodríguez | 26 | 1,76m | CF América | €8.0m |
| LW | Agustín Canobbio | 28 | 1,75m | Fluminense Football Club | €8.0m |
| RW | Facundo Pellistri | 24 | 1,75m | Panathinaikos | €6.0m |
| CF | Darwin Núñez | 26 | 1,87m | Al-Hilal SFC | €25.0m |
| CF | Federico Viñas | 27 | 1,82m | Real Oviedo | €4.0m |
| CF | Rodrigo Aguirre | 32 | 1,82m | Tigres UANL | €2.3m |
Important note: This simulator and its probability outputs are for entertainment and informational purposes only. They are not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, trade, or participate in any prediction market. No real-money contest is offered or accepted on baplab.