Group H

Uruguay Uruguay

This profile is based on 100,000 simulations using the current WC26 simulator engine. The numbers are a model snapshot, not a guarantee. Team ratings, squads and injury updates may change over time.

Champion 1.9%
Group qualification 90.8%
Squad value €405.8m
Avg age 28.8
Avg height 1.815m
Manager Marcelo Bielsa

Group

Finish probabilities

1st 22.7%
2nd 57.5%
3rd qualified 10.6%
3rd not qualified 4.7%
4th 4.5%

Tournament

Stage reach probabilities

R32 90.8%
R16 42.3%
QF 23.4%
SF 11.5%
Final 5.0%
Champion 1.9%

Conditional path

Path by group finish

Finish Sample R32R16QFSFFinalChampion
1st 22.7% 100.0%56.1%27.5%14.6%6.4%2.4%
2nd 57.5% 100.0%41.5%25.0%12.1%5.2%1.9%
3rd 15.4% 69.2%37.7%18.3%7.9%3.5%1.5%

Overall opponent pool

Most common opponents by round

If reached shows the opponent split among this team's matches in that round. All sims shows how often the matchup happens across the full 100,000-simulation snapshot.

R32

Argentina Argentina If reached: 50.3% All sims: 45.7% Win rate: 33.4%
Austria Austria If reached: 21.7% All sims: 19.7% Win rate: 57.1%
Algeria Algeria If reached: 14.5% All sims: 13.2% Win rate: 65.3%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 2.9% All sims: 2.6% Win rate: 53.6%
South Korea South Korea If reached: 2.3% All sims: 2.1% Win rate: 59.8%

R16

Türkiye Türkiye If reached: 12.0% All sims: 5.1% Win rate: 53.2%
USA USA If reached: 11.8% All sims: 5.0% Win rate: 53.1%
Egypt Egypt If reached: 10.4% All sims: 4.4% Win rate: 67.2%
England England If reached: 9.7% All sims: 4.1% Win rate: 34.5%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 8.3% All sims: 3.5% Win rate: 50.1%

QF

Portugal Portugal If reached: 19.6% All sims: 4.6% Win rate: 36.5%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 9.5% All sims: 2.2% Win rate: 51.0%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 8.8% All sims: 2.1% Win rate: 45.1%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 6.3% All sims: 1.5% Win rate: 49.3%
Canada Canada If reached: 4.2% All sims: 1.0% Win rate: 65.5%

SF

France France If reached: 13.5% All sims: 1.5% Win rate: 30.2%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 13.3% All sims: 1.5% Win rate: 34.5%
England England If reached: 11.7% All sims: 1.3% Win rate: 34.7%
Germany Germany If reached: 7.5% All sims: 0.9% Win rate: 40.6%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 7.3% All sims: 0.8% Win rate: 42.0%

Final

Spain Spain If reached: 22.1% All sims: 1.1% Win rate: 27.4%
France France If reached: 13.0% All sims: 0.6% Win rate: 30.0%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 7.2% All sims: 0.4% Win rate: 37.2%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 6.5% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 32.1%
England England If reached: 6.4% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 34.6%

Finish 1st

Uruguay opponent pool if finishing 1st

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Austria Austria If reached: 42.6% Path sims: 42.6% Win rate: 56.5%
Algeria Algeria If reached: 32.1% Path sims: 32.1% Win rate: 65.1%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 20.3% Path sims: 20.3% Win rate: 32.9%
Jordan Jordan If reached: 5.1% Path sims: 5.1% Win rate: 87.0%

R16

Croatia Croatia If reached: 22.8% Path sims: 12.8% Win rate: 49.8%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 22.3% Path sims: 12.5% Win rate: 51.2%
England England If reached: 18.1% Path sims: 10.2% Win rate: 33.6%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 16.8% Path sims: 9.4% Win rate: 36.1%
Ghana Ghana If reached: 8.6% Path sims: 4.8% Win rate: 65.3%

QF

Belgium Belgium If reached: 29.4% Path sims: 8.1% Win rate: 44.4%
Türkiye Türkiye If reached: 12.9% Path sims: 3.6% Win rate: 52.0%
USA USA If reached: 12.6% Path sims: 3.4% Win rate: 52.7%
Egypt Egypt If reached: 4.9% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 64.7%
South Korea South Korea If reached: 3.9% Path sims: 1.1% Win rate: 62.7%

SF

France France If reached: 23.8% Path sims: 3.5% Win rate: 31.5%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 13.4% Path sims: 2.0% Win rate: 40.8%
Germany Germany If reached: 11.3% Path sims: 1.7% Win rate: 38.7%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 8.7% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 33.6%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 5.5% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 53.6%

Final

Spain Spain If reached: 19.4% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 25.7%
England England If reached: 11.9% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 37.2%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 11.4% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 34.8%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 9.8% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 38.7%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 9.8% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 39.4%

Finish 2nd

Uruguay opponent pool if finishing 2nd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Argentina Argentina If reached: 71.4% Path sims: 71.4% Win rate: 33.5%
Austria Austria If reached: 17.5% Path sims: 17.5% Win rate: 57.7%
Algeria Algeria If reached: 10.3% Path sims: 10.3% Win rate: 65.5%
Jordan Jordan If reached: 0.7% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 91.4%

R16

Türkiye Türkiye If reached: 19.9% Path sims: 8.3% Win rate: 53.0%
USA USA If reached: 19.6% Path sims: 8.1% Win rate: 53.5%
Egypt Egypt If reached: 18.5% Path sims: 7.7% Win rate: 67.2%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 14.3% Path sims: 5.9% Win rate: 46.2%
Paraguay Paraguay If reached: 12.6% Path sims: 5.2% Win rate: 66.1%

QF

Portugal Portugal If reached: 31.5% Path sims: 7.9% Win rate: 36.4%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 13.9% Path sims: 3.5% Win rate: 50.9%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 10.0% Path sims: 2.5% Win rate: 49.5%
Canada Canada If reached: 5.3% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 65.4%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 4.3% Path sims: 1.1% Win rate: 50.2%

SF

England England If reached: 19.1% Path sims: 2.3% Win rate: 34.4%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 17.3% Path sims: 2.1% Win rate: 34.8%
France France If reached: 9.8% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 29.4%
Norway Norway If reached: 7.2% Path sims: 0.9% Win rate: 47.7%
Germany Germany If reached: 6.5% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 41.4%

Final

Spain Spain If reached: 24.5% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 28.8%
France France If reached: 16.1% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 30.2%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 6.5% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 39.9%
Germany Germany If reached: 6.5% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 41.5%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 5.9% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 40.3%

Finish 3rd

Uruguay opponent pool if finishing 3rd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Mexico Mexico If reached: 24.8% Path sims: 17.2% Win rate: 53.6%
South Korea South Korea If reached: 19.8% Path sims: 13.7% Win rate: 59.8%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 15.8% Path sims: 10.9% Win rate: 44.3%
Czechia Czechia If reached: 13.5% Path sims: 9.3% Win rate: 63.0%
France France If reached: 8.7% Path sims: 6.0% Win rate: 31.1%

R16

England England If reached: 31.1% Path sims: 11.7% Win rate: 35.8%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 11.1% Path sims: 4.2% Win rate: 51.5%
USA USA If reached: 5.8% Path sims: 2.2% Win rate: 47.2%
Türkiye Türkiye If reached: 5.6% Path sims: 2.1% Win rate: 56.6%
Germany Germany If reached: 4.7% Path sims: 1.8% Win rate: 41.0%

QF

Brazil Brazil If reached: 16.7% Path sims: 3.0% Win rate: 38.5%
Spain Spain If reached: 12.6% Path sims: 2.3% Win rate: 30.2%
France France If reached: 8.3% Path sims: 1.5% Win rate: 28.0%
Norway Norway If reached: 8.1% Path sims: 1.5% Win rate: 44.7%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 7.0% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 41.5%

SF

Argentina Argentina If reached: 21.7% Path sims: 1.7% Win rate: 36.6%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 12.8% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 36.1%
Spain Spain If reached: 7.3% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 26.1%
France France If reached: 6.2% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 24.0%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 4.9% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 52.5%

Final

Spain Spain If reached: 16.2% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 21.6%
France France If reached: 11.8% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 35.9%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 9.4% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 49.0%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 7.7% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 31.0%
England England If reached: 7.7% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 31.0%

Squad

Current squad

26 players
Pos Player Age Height Club Value
GK Santiago Mele 28 1,84m CF Monterrey €2.0m
GK Sergio Rochet 33 1,90m Sport Club Internacional €1.8m
GK Fernando Muslera 39 1,90m Club Estudiantes de La Plata €700k
CB Ronald Araújo 27 1,92m FC Barcelona €20.0m
CB José María Giménez 31 1,85m Atlético de Madrid €12.0m
CB Santiago Bueno 27 1,90m Wolverhampton Wanderers €10.0m
CB Sebastián Cáceres 26 1,82m CF América €4.5m
LB Maxi Araújo 26 1,79m Sporting CP €35.0m
LB Mathías Olivera 28 1,85m SSC Napoli €15.0m
LB Joaquín Piquerez 27 1,84m Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras €12.0m
LB Juan Manuel Sanabria 26 1,72m Real Salt Lake City €4.5m
LB Matías Viña 28 1,80m CA River Plate €3.5m
RB Guillermo Varela 33 1,73m CR Flamengo €1.0m
DM Manuel Ugarte 25 1,82m Manchester United €30.0m
DM Rodrigo Bentancur 28 1,87m Tottenham Hotspur €22.0m
DM Emiliano Martínez 26 1,85m Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras €6.5m
CM Federico Valverde 27 1,82m Real Madrid €120.0m
CM Nicolás De La Cruz 29 1,67m CR Flamengo €8.0m
AM Rodrigo Zalazar 26 1,79m SC Braga €30.0m
AM Giorgian De Arrascaeta 32 1,74m CR Flamengo €14.0m
LW Brian Rodríguez 26 1,76m CF América €8.0m
LW Agustín Canobbio 28 1,75m Fluminense Football Club €8.0m
RW Facundo Pellistri 24 1,75m Panathinaikos €6.0m
CF Darwin Núñez 26 1,87m Al-Hilal SFC €25.0m
CF Federico Viñas 27 1,82m Real Oviedo €4.0m
CF Rodrigo Aguirre 32 1,82m Tigres UANL €2.3m