Group I

Senegal Senegal

This profile is based on 100,000 simulations using the current WC26 simulator engine. The numbers are a model snapshot, not a guarantee. Team ratings, squads and injury updates may change over time.

Champion 0.7%
Group qualification 73.5%
Squad value €483.4m
Avg age 26.5
Avg height 1.838m
Manager Pape Thiaw

Group

Finish probabilities

1st 11.9%
2nd 28.7%
3rd qualified 32.9%
3rd not qualified 14.3%
4th 12.2%

Tournament

Stage reach probabilities

R32 73.5%
R16 33.6%
QF 15.2%
SF 6.0%
Final 2.2%
Champion 0.7%

Conditional path

Path by group finish

Finish Sample R32R16QFSFFinalChampion
1st 11.9% 100.0%56.3%25.2%11.8%4.4%1.4%
2nd 28.7% 100.0%46.3%17.9%7.4%2.6%0.9%
3rd 47.2% 69.7%28.8%14.8%5.3%2.0%0.6%

Overall opponent pool

Most common opponents by round

If reached shows the opponent split among this team's matches in that round. All sims shows how often the matchup happens across the full 100,000-simulation snapshot.

R32

Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 13.7% All sims: 10.0% Win rate: 48.9%
Ivory Coast Ivory Coast If reached: 12.9% All sims: 9.5% Win rate: 50.5%
Germany Germany If reached: 10.9% All sims: 8.0% Win rate: 32.7%
England England If reached: 10.0% All sims: 7.4% Win rate: 27.4%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 8.1% All sims: 6.0% Win rate: 29.5%

R16

Brazil Brazil If reached: 18.1% All sims: 6.1% Win rate: 28.7%
Germany Germany If reached: 8.4% All sims: 2.8% Win rate: 34.2%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 6.4% All sims: 2.1% Win rate: 45.7%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 5.8% All sims: 2.0% Win rate: 36.8%
Japan Japan If reached: 5.4% All sims: 1.8% Win rate: 46.2%

QF

England England If reached: 12.1% All sims: 1.8% Win rate: 28.6%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 7.6% All sims: 1.2% Win rate: 26.8%
Spain Spain If reached: 7.2% All sims: 1.1% Win rate: 24.3%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 6.7% All sims: 1.0% Win rate: 26.8%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 5.6% All sims: 0.9% Win rate: 35.5%

SF

Argentina Argentina If reached: 14.1% All sims: 0.9% Win rate: 28.4%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 11.2% All sims: 0.7% Win rate: 29.2%
Spain Spain If reached: 10.0% All sims: 0.6% Win rate: 21.9%
England England If reached: 6.2% All sims: 0.4% Win rate: 29.4%
France France If reached: 5.6% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 28.2%

Final

France France If reached: 17.2% All sims: 0.4% Win rate: 24.3%
Spain Spain If reached: 15.1% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 22.9%
England England If reached: 7.2% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 25.3%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 6.6% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 26.4%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 6.5% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 31.7%

Finish 1st

Senegal opponent pool if finishing 1st

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Sweden Sweden If reached: 21.1% Path sims: 21.1% Win rate: 49.5%
Japan Japan If reached: 17.7% Path sims: 17.7% Win rate: 48.5%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 11.4% Path sims: 11.4% Win rate: 34.0%
Tunisia Tunisia If reached: 10.5% Path sims: 10.5% Win rate: 76.7%
Paraguay Paraguay If reached: 5.8% Path sims: 5.8% Win rate: 63.6%

R16

Germany Germany If reached: 38.7% Path sims: 21.8% Win rate: 33.8%
Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 13.1% Path sims: 7.4% Win rate: 45.4%
Ivory Coast Ivory Coast If reached: 11.7% Path sims: 6.6% Win rate: 53.5%
Paraguay Paraguay If reached: 5.2% Path sims: 2.9% Win rate: 62.4%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 5.1% Path sims: 2.9% Win rate: 46.4%

QF

Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 20.9% Path sims: 5.3% Win rate: 35.5%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 12.5% Path sims: 3.1% Win rate: 28.1%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 12.2% Path sims: 3.1% Win rate: 48.6%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 9.1% Path sims: 2.3% Win rate: 47.8%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 7.5% Path sims: 1.9% Win rate: 52.9%

SF

Spain Spain If reached: 27.3% Path sims: 3.2% Win rate: 22.1%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 12.9% Path sims: 1.5% Win rate: 36.5%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 7.1% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 33.0%
England England If reached: 6.7% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 27.4%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 6.5% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 30.8%

Final

France France If reached: 19.1% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 24.8%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 11.7% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 33.9%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 11.0% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 31.0%
England England If reached: 11.0% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 24.1%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 8.7% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 32.6%

Finish 2nd

Senegal opponent pool if finishing 2nd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 35.0% Path sims: 35.0% Win rate: 48.9%
Ivory Coast Ivory Coast If reached: 33.2% Path sims: 33.2% Win rate: 50.5%
Germany Germany If reached: 27.9% Path sims: 27.9% Win rate: 32.7%
Curaçao Curaçao If reached: 4.0% Path sims: 4.0% Win rate: 82.2%

R16

Brazil Brazil If reached: 43.5% Path sims: 20.1% Win rate: 28.7%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 14.2% Path sims: 6.6% Win rate: 36.7%
Japan Japan If reached: 13.2% Path sims: 6.1% Win rate: 46.1%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 12.3% Path sims: 5.7% Win rate: 45.7%
Sweden Sweden If reached: 11.1% Path sims: 5.1% Win rate: 51.1%

QF

England England If reached: 31.8% Path sims: 5.7% Win rate: 28.6%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 9.6% Path sims: 1.7% Win rate: 43.5%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 9.3% Path sims: 1.7% Win rate: 50.6%
Norway Norway If reached: 6.1% Path sims: 1.1% Win rate: 38.1%
South Korea South Korea If reached: 5.7% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 53.2%

SF

Argentina Argentina If reached: 25.5% Path sims: 1.9% Win rate: 26.9%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 17.8% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 27.6%
Spain Spain If reached: 6.7% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 21.3%
Uruguay Uruguay If reached: 6.4% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 38.5%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 5.9% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 42.9%

Final

France France If reached: 19.5% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 21.4%
Spain Spain If reached: 19.4% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 24.3%
Germany Germany If reached: 7.3% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 38.9%
England England If reached: 5.9% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 29.5%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 5.5% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 36.6%

Finish 3rd

Senegal opponent pool if finishing 3rd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

England England If reached: 22.4% Path sims: 15.6% Win rate: 27.4%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 18.1% Path sims: 12.6% Win rate: 29.5%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 10.1% Path sims: 7.0% Win rate: 43.1%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 8.3% Path sims: 5.8% Win rate: 43.7%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 7.9% Path sims: 5.5% Win rate: 39.4%

R16

Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 10.4% Path sims: 3.0% Win rate: 47.4%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 9.1% Path sims: 2.6% Win rate: 47.3%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 8.0% Path sims: 2.3% Win rate: 39.3%
South Korea South Korea If reached: 6.5% Path sims: 1.9% Win rate: 51.1%
Canada Canada If reached: 5.6% Path sims: 1.6% Win rate: 59.3%

QF

Spain Spain If reached: 15.1% Path sims: 2.2% Win rate: 24.3%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 14.3% Path sims: 2.1% Win rate: 27.1%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 10.0% Path sims: 1.5% Win rate: 26.6%
Uruguay Uruguay If reached: 6.4% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 45.9%
Norway Norway If reached: 6.3% Path sims: 0.9% Win rate: 38.0%

SF

France France If reached: 10.8% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 27.4%
England England If reached: 9.1% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 29.8%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 8.8% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 31.2%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 8.4% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 27.5%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 7.9% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 30.3%

Final

Spain Spain If reached: 16.8% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 22.6%
France France If reached: 14.3% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 27.3%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 6.8% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 20.6%
Germany Germany If reached: 6.6% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 27.9%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 6.4% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 28.8%

Squad

Current squad

26 players
Pos Player Age Height Club Value
GK Yehvann Diouf 26 1,88m OGC Nice €7.0m
GK Edouard Mendy 34 1,94m Al-Ahli SFC €4.5m
GK Mory Diaw 32 1,97m Le Havre AC €900k
CB Mamadou Sarr 20 1,94m Chelsea FC €25.0m
CB Moussa Niakhaté 30 1,90m Olympique Lyon €15.0m
CB Antoine Mendy 22 1,87m OGC Nice €10.0m
CB Moustapha Mbow 26 1,85m Paris FC €9.0m
CB Kalidou Koulibaly 34 1,86m Al-Hilal SFC €5.0m
LB El Hadji Malick Diouf 21 1,83m West Ham United €28.0m
LB Ismail Jakobs 26 1,84m Galatasaray €8.0m
RB Ilay Camara 23 1,80m RSC Anderlecht €4.0m
DM Idrissa Gueye 36 1,74m Everton FC €1.0m
CM Pape Gueye 27 1,89m Villarreal CF €40.0m
CM Lamine Camara 22 1,73m AS Monaco €40.0m
CM Pape Matar Sarr 23 1,84m Tottenham Hotspur €32.0m
CM Habib Diarra 22 1,78m Sunderland AFC €32.0m
CM Bara Sapoko Ndiaye 18 1,83m Bayern Munich €4.0m
RM Krépin Diatta 27 1,75m AS Monaco €6.0m
LW Assane Diao 20 1,85m Como 1907 €30.0m
LW Sadio Mané 34 1,75m Al-Nassr FC €7.0m
RW Iliman Ndiaye 26 1,80m Everton FC €50.0m
RW Ismaïla Sarr 28 1,85m Crystal Palace €35.0m
RW Ibrahim Mbaye 18 1,75m Paris Saint-Germain €30.0m
CF Nicolas Jackson 24 1,87m Bayern Munich €40.0m
CF Bamba Dieng 26 1,78m FC Lorient €15.0m
CF Cherif Ndiaye 30 1,90m Samsunspor €5.0m