Group I

Norway Norway

This profile is based on 100,000 simulations using the current WC26 simulator engine. The numbers are a model snapshot, not a guarantee. Team ratings, squads and injury updates may change over time.

Champion 2.9%
Group qualification 88.7%
Squad value €601.0m
Avg age 26.8
Avg height 1.871m
Manager Ståle Solbakken

Group

Finish probabilities

1st 25.1%
2nd 41.8%
3rd qualified 21.7%
3rd not qualified 6.3%
4th 5.1%

Tournament

Stage reach probabilities

R32 88.7%
R16 51.5%
QF 27.7%
SF 14.4%
Final 6.7%
Champion 2.9%

Conditional path

Path by group finish

Finish Sample R32R16QFSFFinalChampion
1st 25.1% 100.0%65.9%36.4%20.4%9.5%4.1%
2nd 41.8% 100.0%56.8%27.9%14.3%6.6%2.8%
3rd 28.0% 77.6%40.1%24.8%11.6%5.5%2.4%

Overall opponent pool

Most common opponents by round

If reached shows the opponent split among this team's matches in that round. All sims shows how often the matchup happens across the full 100,000-simulation snapshot.

R32

Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 16.3% All sims: 14.5% Win rate: 59.0%
Ivory Coast Ivory Coast If reached: 15.4% All sims: 13.7% Win rate: 62.0%
Germany Germany If reached: 13.5% All sims: 11.9% Win rate: 43.3%
Sweden Sweden If reached: 6.0% All sims: 5.3% Win rate: 62.3%
England England If reached: 5.5% All sims: 4.9% Win rate: 36.9%

R16

Brazil Brazil If reached: 21.1% All sims: 10.9% Win rate: 38.1%
Germany Germany If reached: 12.7% All sims: 6.6% Win rate: 44.4%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 7.7% All sims: 4.0% Win rate: 56.9%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 7.3% All sims: 3.7% Win rate: 46.2%
Japan Japan If reached: 6.2% All sims: 3.2% Win rate: 57.9%

QF

England England If reached: 14.5% All sims: 4.0% Win rate: 37.9%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 8.1% All sims: 2.2% Win rate: 45.9%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 7.2% All sims: 2.0% Win rate: 36.4%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 6.8% All sims: 1.9% Win rate: 59.1%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 5.3% All sims: 1.5% Win rate: 57.8%

SF

Argentina Argentina If reached: 14.8% All sims: 2.1% Win rate: 35.4%
Spain Spain If reached: 14.6% All sims: 2.1% Win rate: 29.6%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 11.6% All sims: 1.7% Win rate: 39.7%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 6.4% All sims: 0.9% Win rate: 50.7%
England England If reached: 5.4% All sims: 0.8% Win rate: 39.1%

Final

France France If reached: 18.6% All sims: 1.2% Win rate: 30.8%
Spain Spain If reached: 13.5% All sims: 0.9% Win rate: 33.7%
England England If reached: 8.2% All sims: 0.5% Win rate: 37.2%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 7.4% All sims: 0.5% Win rate: 37.1%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 6.7% All sims: 0.5% Win rate: 39.1%

Finish 1st

Norway opponent pool if finishing 1st

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Sweden Sweden If reached: 21.3% Path sims: 21.3% Win rate: 62.3%
Japan Japan If reached: 18.5% Path sims: 18.5% Win rate: 57.0%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 11.6% Path sims: 11.6% Win rate: 45.7%
Tunisia Tunisia If reached: 10.7% Path sims: 10.7% Win rate: 84.6%
Paraguay Paraguay If reached: 5.4% Path sims: 5.4% Win rate: 72.8%

R16

Germany Germany If reached: 38.5% Path sims: 25.4% Win rate: 44.5%
Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 13.5% Path sims: 8.9% Win rate: 60.1%
Ivory Coast Ivory Coast If reached: 12.0% Path sims: 7.9% Win rate: 63.4%
Scotland Scotland If reached: 5.3% Path sims: 3.5% Win rate: 69.9%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 5.2% Path sims: 3.4% Win rate: 58.0%

QF

Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 22.1% Path sims: 8.0% Win rate: 45.8%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 12.3% Path sims: 4.5% Win rate: 57.4%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 11.9% Path sims: 4.3% Win rate: 37.6%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 8.0% Path sims: 2.9% Win rate: 59.1%
Japan Japan If reached: 7.7% Path sims: 2.8% Win rate: 59.2%

SF

Spain Spain If reached: 29.6% Path sims: 6.1% Win rate: 31.1%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 12.1% Path sims: 2.5% Win rate: 49.8%
England England If reached: 7.0% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 41.6%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 6.1% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 41.0%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 5.2% Path sims: 1.1% Win rate: 58.9%

Final

France France If reached: 18.0% Path sims: 1.7% Win rate: 33.5%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 13.2% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 37.6%
England England If reached: 13.1% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 37.3%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 11.2% Path sims: 1.1% Win rate: 38.3%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 8.4% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 41.5%

Finish 2nd

Norway opponent pool if finishing 2nd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 34.6% Path sims: 34.6% Win rate: 59.0%
Ivory Coast Ivory Coast If reached: 32.7% Path sims: 32.7% Win rate: 62.0%
Germany Germany If reached: 28.5% Path sims: 28.5% Win rate: 43.3%
Curaçao Curaçao If reached: 4.2% Path sims: 4.2% Win rate: 91.2%

R16

Brazil Brazil If reached: 43.3% Path sims: 24.6% Win rate: 38.2%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 15.1% Path sims: 8.6% Win rate: 46.4%
Japan Japan If reached: 12.7% Path sims: 7.2% Win rate: 57.9%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 12.3% Path sims: 7.0% Win rate: 56.4%
Sweden Sweden If reached: 10.9% Path sims: 6.2% Win rate: 62.6%

QF

England England If reached: 32.9% Path sims: 9.2% Win rate: 38.0%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 9.9% Path sims: 2.8% Win rate: 59.1%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 9.7% Path sims: 2.7% Win rate: 54.2%
South Korea South Korea If reached: 6.4% Path sims: 1.8% Win rate: 65.3%
Senegal Senegal If reached: 3.8% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 62.0%

SF

Argentina Argentina If reached: 25.5% Path sims: 3.6% Win rate: 35.1%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 18.2% Path sims: 2.6% Win rate: 38.4%
Spain Spain If reached: 8.0% Path sims: 1.1% Win rate: 25.9%
Uruguay Uruguay If reached: 6.6% Path sims: 0.9% Win rate: 51.0%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 5.5% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 56.2%

Final

France France If reached: 21.2% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 29.0%
Spain Spain If reached: 19.2% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 33.0%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 6.4% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 44.3%
Germany Germany If reached: 6.2% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 44.1%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 5.8% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 38.8%

Finish 3rd

Norway opponent pool if finishing 3rd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

England England If reached: 22.3% Path sims: 17.3% Win rate: 36.9%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 17.8% Path sims: 13.8% Win rate: 38.8%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 10.4% Path sims: 8.1% Win rate: 54.0%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 8.4% Path sims: 6.5% Win rate: 53.1%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 7.6% Path sims: 5.9% Win rate: 51.4%

R16

Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 10.1% Path sims: 4.0% Win rate: 61.2%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 9.3% Path sims: 3.7% Win rate: 59.2%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 7.7% Path sims: 3.1% Win rate: 49.4%
South Korea South Korea If reached: 6.7% Path sims: 2.7% Win rate: 62.0%
Canada Canada If reached: 5.5% Path sims: 2.2% Win rate: 72.3%

QF

Spain Spain If reached: 15.1% Path sims: 3.8% Win rate: 31.8%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 14.5% Path sims: 3.6% Win rate: 37.1%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 10.7% Path sims: 2.7% Win rate: 35.4%
Uruguay Uruguay If reached: 6.3% Path sims: 1.6% Win rate: 55.1%
France France If reached: 5.1% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 31.5%

SF

Argentina Argentina If reached: 10.2% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 37.7%
France France If reached: 10.0% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 31.3%
England England If reached: 8.6% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 39.4%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 8.3% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 43.1%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 8.2% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 40.1%

Final

Spain Spain If reached: 15.5% Path sims: 0.9% Win rate: 33.8%
France France If reached: 14.8% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 30.6%
England England If reached: 8.2% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 40.2%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 6.3% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 32.7%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 6.3% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 39.2%

Squad

Current squad

26 players
Pos Player Age Height Club Value
GK Sander Tangvik 23 1,93m Hamburger SV €3.0m
GK Egil Selvik 28 1,93m Watford FC €1.5m
GK Ørjan Nyland 35 1,92m Sevilla FC €900k
CB Kristoffer Ajer 28 1,98m Brentford FC €18.0m
CB Leo Østigård 26 1,83m Genoa CFC €13.0m
CB Torbjørn Heggem 27 1,92m Bologna FC 1909 €13.0m
CB Henrik Falchener 23 1,94m Viking FK €6.0m
CB Sondre Langås 25 1,90m Derby County €4.0m
LB David Møller Wolfe 24 1,87m Wolverhampton Wanderers €10.0m
LB Fredrik Bjørkan 27 1,80m FK Bodø/Glimt €3.5m
RB Julian Ryerson 28 1,83m Borussia Dortmund €25.0m
RB Marcus Pedersen 25 1,84m Torino FC €3.5m
DM Sander Berge 28 1,95m Fulham FC €25.0m
DM Patrick Berg 28 1,77m FK Bodø/Glimt €8.0m
CM Fredrik Aursnes 30 1,80m SL Benfica €15.0m
CM Kristian Thorstvedt 27 1,89m US Sassuolo €12.0m
CM Morten Thorsby 30 1,88m US Cremonese €2.8m
AM Martin Ødegaard 27 1,78m Arsenal FC €65.0m
AM Thelo Aasgaard 24 1,88m Rangers FC €2.8m
LW Antonio Nusa 21 1,83m RB Leipzig €32.0m
LW Andreas Schjelderup 22 1,76m SL Benfica €30.0m
LW Jens Petter Hauge 26 1,84m FK Bodø/Glimt €12.0m
RW Oscar Bobb 22 1,75m Fulham FC €30.0m
CF Erling Haaland 25 1,95m Manchester City €200.0m
CF Jørgen Strand Larsen 26 1,93m Crystal Palace €45.0m
CF Alexander Sørloth 31 1,95m Atlético de Madrid €20.0m