Group
Finish probabilities
1st 0%
2nd 100.0%
3rd place 0% Qualified from 3rd 0% Eliminated in 3rd 0%
4th 0%
Group I
Norway
Erling Haaland is the most dangerous target man on earth and the entire Norwegian system is built around delivering the ball to him as efficiently as possible. This is both their greatest strength and their greatest vulnerability: teams that neutralize Haaland neutralize Norway. The wide creativity to offer an alternative is largely absent.
This profile summarizes Norway's World Cup 2026 simulation path from the latest current-state snapshot: group outlook, finish distribution, possible knockout routes, opponent pools, squad context, and title chances.
Champion 0%
Group qualification 100%
Squad market €601.0m
Avg age 26.8
Avg height 1.871m
Manager Ståle Solbakken
Saved forecast
Forecast as of Updated 2026-07-15 10:47 UTC, based on 10k current-state simulations. Tournament-wide official results included at that time stay fixed. These are saved model forecasts, not the team's actual final finish.
Tournament-wide result cutoff: France 0-2 Spain
Guide
How to read this team profile
Group finish and stage reach values are model outputs from the latest current-state team profile snapshot. Path sections show how Norway's route changes by group finish, while opponent pools summarize the teams most often appearing in each round.
Other forecast pages may show a different saved date. The interactive replay simulator is separate: changing Team Strength settings creates alternative scenarios without changing this saved forecast.
Tournament
Stage reach probabilities
R32 100%
R16 100%
QF 100%
SF 0%
Final 0%
Champion 0%
Conditional path
Path by group finish
| Finish | Sample | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | No longer possible | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2nd | 100.0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 3rd | No longer possible | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Overall opponent pool
Most common opponents by round
If reached shows the opponent split among this team's matches in that round. All sims shows how often the matchup happens across the latest current-state snapshot.
R32
Ivory Coast If reached: 100.0% All sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 100.0% R16
Brazil If reached: 100.0% All sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 100.0% QF
England If reached: 100.0% All sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 0% SF
No opponent samples.
Final
No opponent samples.
Finish 1st
Norway opponent pool if finishing 1st
For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.
R32
No longer possible
R16
No longer possible
QF
No longer possible
SF
No longer possible
Final
No longer possible
Finish 2nd
Norway opponent pool if finishing 2nd
For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.
R32
Ivory Coast If reached: 100.0% Path sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 100.0% R16
Brazil If reached: 100.0% Path sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 100.0% QF
England If reached: 100.0% Path sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 0% SF
Not enough samples.
Final
Not enough samples.
Finish 3rd
Norway opponent pool if finishing 3rd
For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.
R32
No longer possible
R16
No longer possible
QF
No longer possible
SF
No longer possible
Final
No longer possible
Squad
Current squad
| Pos | Player | Age | Height | Club | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GK | Sander Tangvik | 23 | 1,93m | Hamburger SV | €3.0m |
| GK | Egil Selvik | 28 | 1,93m | Watford FC | €1.5m |
| GK | Ørjan Nyland | 35 | 1,92m | Sevilla FC | €900k |
| CB | Kristoffer Ajer | 28 | 1,98m | Brentford FC | €18.0m |
| CB | Leo Østigård | 26 | 1,83m | Genoa CFC | €13.0m |
| CB | Torbjørn Heggem | 27 | 1,92m | Bologna FC 1909 | €13.0m |
| CB | Henrik Falchener | 23 | 1,94m | Viking FK | €6.0m |
| CB | Sondre Langås | 25 | 1,90m | Derby County | €4.0m |
| LB | David Møller Wolfe | 24 | 1,87m | Wolverhampton Wanderers | €10.0m |
| LB | Fredrik Bjørkan | 27 | 1,80m | FK Bodø/Glimt | €3.5m |
| RB | Julian Ryerson | 28 | 1,83m | Borussia Dortmund | €25.0m |
| RB | Marcus Pedersen | 25 | 1,84m | Torino FC | €3.5m |
| DM | Sander Berge | 28 | 1,95m | Fulham FC | €25.0m |
| DM | Patrick Berg | 28 | 1,77m | FK Bodø/Glimt | €8.0m |
| CM | Fredrik Aursnes | 30 | 1,80m | SL Benfica | €15.0m |
| CM | Kristian Thorstvedt | 27 | 1,89m | US Sassuolo | €12.0m |
| CM | Morten Thorsby | 30 | 1,88m | US Cremonese | €2.8m |
| AM | Martin Ødegaard | 27 | 1,78m | Arsenal FC | €65.0m |
| AM | Thelo Aasgaard | 24 | 1,88m | Rangers FC | €2.8m |
| LW | Antonio Nusa | 21 | 1,83m | RB Leipzig | €32.0m |
| LW | Andreas Schjelderup | 22 | 1,76m | SL Benfica | €30.0m |
| LW | Jens Petter Hauge | 26 | 1,84m | FK Bodø/Glimt | €12.0m |
| RW | Oscar Bobb | 22 | 1,75m | Fulham FC | €30.0m |
| CF | Erling Haaland | 25 | 1,95m | Manchester City | €200.0m |
| CF | Jørgen Strand Larsen | 26 | 1,93m | Crystal Palace | €45.0m |
| CF | Alexander Sørloth | 31 | 1,95m | Atlético de Madrid | €20.0m |
Important note: This simulator and its probability outputs are for entertainment and informational purposes only. They are not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, trade, or participate in any prediction market. No real-money contest is offered or accepted on baplab.