Group I

France France

This profile is based on 100,000 simulations using the current WC26 simulator engine. The numbers are a model snapshot, not a guarantee. Team ratings, squads and injury updates may change over time.

Champion 14.1%
Group qualification 97.7%
Squad value €1.48b
Avg age 27.1
Avg height 1.844m
Manager Didier Deschamps

Group

Finish probabilities

1st 62.5%
2nd 26.3%
3rd qualified 9.0%
3rd not qualified 1.2%
4th 1.1%

Tournament

Stage reach probabilities

R32 97.7%
R16 74.1%
QF 51.4%
SF 35.9%
Final 22.5%
Champion 14.1%

Conditional path

Path by group finish

Finish Sample R32R16QFSFFinalChampion
1st 62.5% 100.0%78.9%55.1%39.5%24.6%15.3%
2nd 26.3% 100.0%71.5%46.8%31.5%20.1%12.6%
3rd 10.1% 88.3%59.9%45.4%29.0%18.6%11.5%

Overall opponent pool

Most common opponents by round

If reached shows the opponent split among this team's matches in that round. All sims shows how often the matchup happens across the full 100,000-simulation snapshot.

R32

Sweden Sweden If reached: 13.6% All sims: 13.3% Win rate: 77.6%
Japan Japan If reached: 12.2% All sims: 12.0% Win rate: 73.0%
Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 9.3% All sims: 9.1% Win rate: 73.3%
Ivory Coast Ivory Coast If reached: 8.9% All sims: 8.7% Win rate: 76.0%
Germany Germany If reached: 7.6% All sims: 7.4% Win rate: 60.3%

R16

Germany Germany If reached: 26.1% All sims: 19.3% Win rate: 60.4%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 13.1% All sims: 9.7% Win rate: 55.8%
Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 9.1% All sims: 6.8% Win rate: 73.6%
Ivory Coast Ivory Coast If reached: 8.0% All sims: 5.9% Win rate: 76.5%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 6.7% All sims: 4.9% Win rate: 72.3%

QF

Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 15.0% All sims: 7.7% Win rate: 62.7%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 9.3% All sims: 4.8% Win rate: 55.9%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 8.6% All sims: 4.4% Win rate: 72.6%
England England If reached: 8.2% All sims: 4.2% Win rate: 55.0%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 7.7% All sims: 4.0% Win rate: 74.6%

SF

Spain Spain If reached: 22.6% All sims: 8.1% Win rate: 49.0%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 10.1% All sims: 3.6% Win rate: 54.3%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 9.9% All sims: 3.6% Win rate: 67.7%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 8.8% All sims: 3.2% Win rate: 56.9%
England England If reached: 6.0% All sims: 2.2% Win rate: 56.1%

Final

Argentina Argentina If reached: 11.7% All sims: 2.6% Win rate: 54.7%
England England If reached: 10.6% All sims: 2.4% Win rate: 55.1%
Spain Spain If reached: 10.3% All sims: 2.3% Win rate: 48.3%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 9.5% All sims: 2.1% Win rate: 58.5%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 9.5% All sims: 2.1% Win rate: 57.1%

Finish 1st

France opponent pool if finishing 1st

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Sweden Sweden If reached: 21.3% Path sims: 21.3% Win rate: 77.6%
Japan Japan If reached: 19.1% Path sims: 19.1% Win rate: 73.0%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 11.5% Path sims: 11.5% Win rate: 61.3%
Tunisia Tunisia If reached: 10.7% Path sims: 10.7% Win rate: 92.6%
Paraguay Paraguay If reached: 5.6% Path sims: 5.6% Win rate: 84.8%

R16

Germany Germany If reached: 39.0% Path sims: 30.8% Win rate: 60.4%
Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 13.4% Path sims: 10.6% Win rate: 73.6%
Ivory Coast Ivory Coast If reached: 11.7% Path sims: 9.2% Win rate: 76.6%
Scotland Scotland If reached: 5.7% Path sims: 4.5% Win rate: 83.4%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 5.2% Path sims: 4.1% Win rate: 72.3%

QF

Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 21.9% Path sims: 12.1% Win rate: 62.6%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 12.0% Path sims: 6.6% Win rate: 72.6%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 11.9% Path sims: 6.6% Win rate: 56.1%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 7.9% Path sims: 4.4% Win rate: 74.3%
Japan Japan If reached: 7.7% Path sims: 4.2% Win rate: 73.5%

SF

Spain Spain If reached: 29.8% Path sims: 11.8% Win rate: 49.0%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 12.8% Path sims: 5.1% Win rate: 67.9%
England England If reached: 6.8% Path sims: 2.7% Win rate: 55.8%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 5.8% Path sims: 2.3% Win rate: 55.3%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 5.4% Path sims: 2.1% Win rate: 54.1%

Final

Argentina Argentina If reached: 15.2% Path sims: 3.7% Win rate: 54.5%
England England If reached: 13.1% Path sims: 3.2% Win rate: 55.4%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 11.9% Path sims: 2.9% Win rate: 56.9%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 10.9% Path sims: 2.7% Win rate: 59.4%
Spain Spain If reached: 5.8% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 49.3%

Finish 2nd

France opponent pool if finishing 2nd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 34.5% Path sims: 34.5% Win rate: 73.3%
Ivory Coast Ivory Coast If reached: 33.0% Path sims: 33.0% Win rate: 76.0%
Germany Germany If reached: 28.2% Path sims: 28.2% Win rate: 60.3%
Curaçao Curaçao If reached: 4.2% Path sims: 4.2% Win rate: 96.2%

R16

Brazil Brazil If reached: 43.9% Path sims: 31.4% Win rate: 56.0%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 14.2% Path sims: 10.2% Win rate: 63.7%
Japan Japan If reached: 13.5% Path sims: 9.6% Win rate: 73.5%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 12.3% Path sims: 8.8% Win rate: 72.4%
Sweden Sweden If reached: 10.7% Path sims: 7.7% Win rate: 77.5%

QF

England England If reached: 33.3% Path sims: 15.6% Win rate: 54.9%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 10.2% Path sims: 4.8% Win rate: 75.3%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 10.2% Path sims: 4.8% Win rate: 65.4%
South Korea South Korea If reached: 6.3% Path sims: 3.0% Win rate: 79.7%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 3.7% Path sims: 1.7% Win rate: 72.6%

SF

Argentina Argentina If reached: 24.3% Path sims: 7.7% Win rate: 54.5%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 17.8% Path sims: 5.6% Win rate: 58.3%
Spain Spain If reached: 8.1% Path sims: 2.6% Win rate: 49.6%
Uruguay Uruguay If reached: 7.2% Path sims: 2.3% Win rate: 70.5%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 5.5% Path sims: 1.7% Win rate: 73.7%

Final

Spain Spain If reached: 21.2% Path sims: 4.3% Win rate: 48.1%
Germany Germany If reached: 8.1% Path sims: 1.6% Win rate: 61.6%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 7.2% Path sims: 1.5% Win rate: 60.5%
Norway Norway If reached: 7.1% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 68.1%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 6.9% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 70.5%

Finish 3rd

France opponent pool if finishing 3rd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

England England If reached: 22.7% Path sims: 20.0% Win rate: 57.1%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 18.1% Path sims: 16.0% Win rate: 57.9%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 9.3% Path sims: 8.2% Win rate: 69.4%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 8.4% Path sims: 7.4% Win rate: 71.4%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 8.3% Path sims: 7.3% Win rate: 68.5%

R16

Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 10.2% Path sims: 6.1% Win rate: 73.7%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 9.8% Path sims: 5.9% Win rate: 74.5%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 7.3% Path sims: 4.4% Win rate: 68.4%
South Korea South Korea If reached: 7.0% Path sims: 4.2% Win rate: 79.8%
Canada Canada If reached: 6.4% Path sims: 3.8% Win rate: 83.8%

QF

Argentina Argentina If reached: 14.6% Path sims: 6.6% Win rate: 54.2%
Spain Spain If reached: 14.3% Path sims: 6.5% Win rate: 50.1%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 10.6% Path sims: 4.8% Win rate: 54.2%
Uruguay Uruguay If reached: 6.7% Path sims: 3.1% Win rate: 71.9%
Norway Norway If reached: 4.5% Path sims: 2.1% Win rate: 68.8%

SF

Argentina Argentina If reached: 10.1% Path sims: 2.9% Win rate: 54.7%
England England If reached: 9.2% Path sims: 2.7% Win rate: 56.1%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 8.8% Path sims: 2.5% Win rate: 58.1%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 8.5% Path sims: 2.5% Win rate: 57.6%
Germany Germany If reached: 6.4% Path sims: 1.9% Win rate: 58.2%

Final

Spain Spain If reached: 16.1% Path sims: 3.0% Win rate: 46.4%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 7.9% Path sims: 1.5% Win rate: 51.7%
England England If reached: 7.6% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 51.0%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 7.2% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 58.1%
Germany Germany If reached: 6.6% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 66.4%

Squad

Current squad

26 players
Pos Player Age Height Club Value
GK Robin Risser 22 1,92m RC Lens €25.0m
GK Mike Maignan 30 1,91m AC Milan €20.0m
GK Brice Samba 32 1,87m Stade Rennais FC €8.0m
CB William Saliba 25 1,92m Arsenal FC €90.0m
CB Dayot Upamecano 27 1,86m Bayern Munich €70.0m
CB Ibrahima Konaté 27 1,94m Liverpool FC €50.0m
CB Maxence Lacroix 26 1,90m Crystal Palace €40.0m
LB Theo Hernández 29 1,84m Al-Hilal SFC €28.0m
LB Lucas Hernández 30 1,84m Paris Saint-Germain €20.0m
LB Lucas Digne 32 1,78m Aston Villa €8.0m
RB Jules Koundé 27 1,80m FC Barcelona €65.0m
RB Malo Gusto 23 1,78m Chelsea FC €35.0m
DM Aurélien Tchouaméni 26 1,88m Real Madrid €75.0m
DM N'Golo Kanté 35 1,68m Fenerbahce €4.0m
CM Warren Zaïre-Emery 20 1,78m Paris Saint-Germain €60.0m
CM Manu Koné 25 1,85m AS Roma €50.0m
CM Adrien Rabiot 31 1,91m AC Milan €18.0m
AM Rayan Cherki 22 1,77m Manchester City €65.0m
LW Bradley Barcola 23 1,82m Paris Saint-Germain €70.0m
RW Michael Olise 24 1,84m Bayern Munich €150.0m
RW Désiré Doué 21 1,81m Paris Saint-Germain €90.0m
RW Maghnes Akliouche 24 1,83m AS Monaco €50.0m
CF Kylian Mbappé 27 1,80m Real Madrid €200.0m
CF Ousmane Dembélé 29 1,78m Paris Saint-Germain €100.0m
CF Marcus Thuram 28 1,92m Inter Milan €50.0m
CF Jean-Philippe Mateta 28 1,92m Crystal Palace €35.0m