Group
Finish probabilities
1st 100.0%
2nd 0%
3rd place 0% Qualified from 3rd 0% Eliminated in 3rd 0%
4th 0%
Group I
France
The most embarrassing depth chart in international football. If Mbappé is fully focused, Dembélé is on form, and the dressing room is not on fire, France are the favorites. Those are three significant conditions. Defensively fragile in ways that should not be possible given the personnel, but here we are.
This profile summarizes France's World Cup 2026 simulation path from the latest current-state snapshot: group outlook, finish distribution, possible knockout routes, opponent pools, squad context, and title chances.
Champion 0%
Group qualification 100%
Squad market €1.48b
Avg age 27.1
Avg height 1.844m
Manager Didier Deschamps
Current-state snapshot
This profile is based on 10k current-state simulations using the WC26 simulator engine. The numbers are a model snapshot, not a guarantee. Team ratings, squads and injury updates may change over time.
Latest result included: France 0-2 Spain
Guide
How to read this team profile
Group finish and stage reach values are model outputs from the latest current-state team profile snapshot. Path sections show how France's route changes by group finish, while opponent pools summarize the teams most often appearing in each round.
This page uses Knockout-phase current-state snapshot using latest committed Match Updates, official locked results, current ratings, and fixed knockout bracket state as of 15 Jul 2026 1:47 PM UTC+3. Other public forecast pages may still use root compatibility datasets until they are updated separately, and custom Team Strength settings can change future tournament paths in the live simulator.
Tournament
Stage reach probabilities
R32 100%
R16 100%
QF 100%
SF 100%
Final 0%
Champion 0%
Conditional path
Path by group finish
| Finish | Sample | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 100.0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| 2nd | No longer possible | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3rd | No longer possible | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Overall opponent pool
Most common opponents by round
If reached shows the opponent split among this team's matches in that round. All sims shows how often the matchup happens across the latest current-state snapshot.
R32
Sweden If reached: 100.0% All sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 100.0% R16
Paraguay If reached: 100.0% All sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 100.0% QF
Morocco If reached: 100.0% All sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 100.0% SF
Spain If reached: 100.0% All sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 0% Final
No opponent samples.
Finish 1st
France opponent pool if finishing 1st
For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.
R32
Sweden If reached: 100.0% Path sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 100.0% R16
Paraguay If reached: 100.0% Path sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 100.0% QF
Morocco If reached: 100.0% Path sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 100.0% SF
Spain If reached: 100.0% Path sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 0% Final
Not enough samples.
Finish 2nd
France opponent pool if finishing 2nd
For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.
R32
No longer possible
R16
No longer possible
QF
No longer possible
SF
No longer possible
Final
No longer possible
Finish 3rd
France opponent pool if finishing 3rd
For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.
R32
No longer possible
R16
No longer possible
QF
No longer possible
SF
No longer possible
Final
No longer possible
Squad
Current squad
| Pos | Player | Age | Height | Club | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GK | Robin Risser | 22 | 1,92m | RC Lens | €25.0m |
| GK | Mike Maignan | 30 | 1,91m | AC Milan | €20.0m |
| GK | Brice Samba | 32 | 1,87m | Stade Rennais FC | €8.0m |
| CB | William Saliba | 25 | 1,92m | Arsenal FC | €90.0m |
| CB | Dayot Upamecano | 27 | 1,86m | Bayern Munich | €70.0m |
| CB | Ibrahima Konaté | 27 | 1,94m | Liverpool FC | €50.0m |
| CB | Maxence Lacroix | 26 | 1,90m | Crystal Palace | €40.0m |
| LB | Theo Hernández | 29 | 1,84m | Al-Hilal SFC | €28.0m |
| LB | Lucas Hernández | 30 | 1,84m | Paris Saint-Germain | €20.0m |
| LB | Lucas Digne | 32 | 1,78m | Aston Villa | €8.0m |
| RB | Jules Koundé | 27 | 1,80m | FC Barcelona | €65.0m |
| RB | Malo Gusto | 23 | 1,78m | Chelsea FC | €35.0m |
| DM | Aurélien Tchouaméni | 26 | 1,88m | Real Madrid | €75.0m |
| DM | N'Golo Kanté | 35 | 1,68m | Fenerbahce | €4.0m |
| CM | Warren Zaïre-Emery | 20 | 1,78m | Paris Saint-Germain | €60.0m |
| CM | Manu Koné | 25 | 1,85m | AS Roma | €50.0m |
| CM | Adrien Rabiot | 31 | 1,91m | AC Milan | €18.0m |
| AM | Rayan Cherki | 22 | 1,77m | Manchester City | €65.0m |
| LW | Bradley Barcola | 23 | 1,82m | Paris Saint-Germain | €70.0m |
| RW | Michael Olise | 24 | 1,84m | Bayern Munich | €150.0m |
| RW | Désiré Doué | 21 | 1,81m | Paris Saint-Germain | €90.0m |
| RW | Maghnes Akliouche | 24 | 1,83m | AS Monaco | €50.0m |
| CF | Kylian Mbappé | 27 | 1,80m | Real Madrid | €200.0m |
| CF | Ousmane Dembélé | 29 | 1,78m | Paris Saint-Germain | €100.0m |
| CF | Marcus Thuram | 28 | 1,92m | Inter Milan | €50.0m |
| CF | Jean-Philippe Mateta | 28 | 1,92m | Crystal Palace | €35.0m |
Important note: This simulator and its probability outputs are for entertainment and informational purposes only. They are not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, trade, or participate in any prediction market. No real-money contest is offered or accepted on baplab.