Match analysis
France vs Senegal 
Match forecast and score distribution for Match 17, Group I, generated from the current simulator ratings.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: France 3-1 Senegal ยท Final. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Goal bands
Total goals distribution
0 7.1%
1 17.6%
2 24.9%
3 21.6%
4 14.9%
5+ 13.9%
Goal thresholds
Total-goal thresholds
Total 0.5 At least 92.9% Below 7.1%
Total 1.5 At least 75.2% Below 24.8%
Total 2.5 At least 50.4% Below 49.6%
Total 3.5 At least 28.8% Below 71.2%
Total 4.5 At least 13.9% Below 86.2%
Team goals
France goal thresholds
France 0.5 At least 84.9% Below 15.1%
France 1.5 At least 56.8% Below 43.2%
France 2.5 At least 30.0% Below 70.0%
France 3.5 At least 12.6% Below 87.4%
France 4.5 At least 4.5% Below 95.6%
Team goals
Senegal goal thresholds
Senegal 0.5 At least 54.4% Below 45.6%
Senegal 1.5 At least 18.9% Below 81.1%
Senegal 2.5 At least 4.6% Below 95.4%
Senegal 3.5 At least 0.9% Below 99.2%
Senegal 4.5 At least 0.1% Below 99.9%
Scoring frequency
Both teams scoring
Both teams score 46.4%
France clean sheet 45.6%
Senegal clean sheet 15.1%
Common scorelines
Top exact scores
1 France 2-0 Senegal 12.6%
2 France 1-0 Senegal 12.5%
3 France 1-1 Senegal 10.1%
4 France 2-1 Senegal 9.2%
5 France 3-0 Senegal 7.8%
6 France 0-0 Senegal 7.1%
7 France 3-1 Senegal 6.3%
8 France 0-1 Senegal 5.1%
9 France 1-2 Senegal 4.1%
10 France 2-2 Senegal 3.9%
Guide
What this simulation preview shows
This page is a direct match simulation reference for one fixture. It uses the simulator's current team ratings and venue context to estimate score patterns, not a full tournament-path run.
Score distribution
How to read the numbers
Average score is the mean goals per team across all runs. Total-goal bands group matches by combined goals, both-team scoring frequency shows how often each side scores at least once, and common scorelines show the most frequent exact results in the sample.
Model note
Simulation reference, not certainty
A real match can land far away from the most common model outcomes. Use these outputs as a way to understand the range of plausible scorelines, not as a guarantee or betting advice.