Match analysis
Iraq vs Norway 
Match forecast and score distribution for Match 18, Group I, generated from the current simulator ratings.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: Iraq 1-4 Norway ยท Final. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Goal bands
Total goals distribution
0 3.3%
1 11.1%
2 19.1%
3 21.8%
4 18.7%
5+ 26.0%
Goal thresholds
Total-goal thresholds
Total 0.5 At least 96.7% Below 3.3%
Total 1.5 At least 85.6% Below 14.4%
Total 2.5 At least 66.5% Below 33.5%
Total 3.5 At least 44.7% Below 55.3%
Total 4.5 At least 26.0% Below 74.0%
Team goals
Iraq goal thresholds
Iraq 0.5 At least 49.8% Below 50.2%
Iraq 1.5 At least 15.6% Below 84.4%
Iraq 2.5 At least 3.3% Below 96.8%
Iraq 3.5 At least 0.5% Below 99.5%
Iraq 4.5 At least 0.1% Below 99.9%
Team goals
Norway goal thresholds
Norway 0.5 At least 93.7% Below 6.3%
Norway 1.5 At least 75.7% Below 24.3%
Norway 2.5 At least 51.7% Below 48.3%
Norway 3.5 At least 29.1% Below 70.9%
Norway 4.5 At least 13.8% Below 86.2%
Scoring frequency
Both teams scoring
Both teams score 46.9%
Iraq clean sheet 6.3%
Norway clean sheet 50.2%
Common scorelines
Top exact scores
1 Iraq 0-2 Norway 12.3%
2 Iraq 0-3 Norway 11.3%
3 Iraq 0-1 Norway 9.1%
4 Iraq 1-2 Norway 8.0%
5 Iraq 1-3 Norway 7.8%
6 Iraq 0-4 Norway 7.4%
7 Iraq 1-1 Norway 6.1%
8 Iraq 1-4 Norway 5.5%
9 Iraq 0-5 Norway 3.9%
10 Iraq 0-0 Norway 3.3%
Guide
What this simulation preview shows
This page is a direct match simulation reference for one fixture. It uses the simulator's current team ratings and venue context to estimate score patterns, not a full tournament-path run.
Score distribution
How to read the numbers
Average score is the mean goals per team across all runs. Total-goal bands group matches by combined goals, both-team scoring frequency shows how often each side scores at least once, and common scorelines show the most frequent exact results in the sample.
Model note
Simulation reference, not certainty
A real match can land far away from the most common model outcomes. Use these outputs as a way to understand the range of plausible scorelines, not as a guarantee or betting advice.