Group
Finish probabilities
1st 100.0%
2nd 0%
3rd place 0% Qualified from 3rd 0% Eliminated in 3rd 0%
4th 0%
Group A
Mexico
CONCACAF royalty at a crossroads. Technically gifted, experienced, and capable of beautiful football. The round of 16 curse is now officially a personality trait: seven consecutive eliminations at that stage. Aging core, familiar problems, same ceiling. At some point something has to change.
This profile summarizes Mexico's World Cup 2026 simulation path from the latest current-state snapshot: group outlook, finish distribution, possible knockout routes, opponent pools, squad context, and title chances.
Champion 0%
Group qualification 100%
Squad market €194.6m
Avg age 27.9
Avg height 1.799m
Manager Javier Aguirre
Saved forecast
Forecast as of Updated 2026-07-15 10:47 UTC, based on 10k current-state simulations. Tournament-wide official results included at that time stay fixed. These are saved model forecasts, not the team's actual final finish.
Tournament-wide result cutoff: France 0-2 Spain
Guide
How to read this team profile
Group finish and stage reach values are model outputs from the latest current-state team profile snapshot. Path sections show how Mexico's route changes by group finish, while opponent pools summarize the teams most often appearing in each round.
Other forecast pages may show a different saved date. The interactive replay simulator is separate: changing Team Strength settings creates alternative scenarios without changing this saved forecast.
Tournament
Stage reach probabilities
R32 100%
R16 100%
QF 0%
SF 0%
Final 0%
Champion 0%
Conditional path
Path by group finish
| Finish | Sample | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 100.0% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 2nd | No longer possible | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3rd | No longer possible | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Overall opponent pool
Most common opponents by round
If reached shows the opponent split among this team's matches in that round. All sims shows how often the matchup happens across the latest current-state snapshot.
R32
Ecuador If reached: 100.0% All sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 100.0% R16
England If reached: 100.0% All sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 0% QF
No opponent samples.
SF
No opponent samples.
Final
No opponent samples.
Finish 1st
Mexico opponent pool if finishing 1st
For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.
R32
Ecuador If reached: 100.0% Path sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 100.0% R16
England If reached: 100.0% Path sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 0% QF
Not enough samples.
SF
Not enough samples.
Final
Not enough samples.
Finish 2nd
Mexico opponent pool if finishing 2nd
For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.
R32
No longer possible
R16
No longer possible
QF
No longer possible
SF
No longer possible
Final
No longer possible
Finish 3rd
Mexico opponent pool if finishing 3rd
For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.
R32
No longer possible
R16
No longer possible
QF
No longer possible
SF
No longer possible
Final
No longer possible
Squad
Current squad
| Pos | Player | Age | Height | Club | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GK | Raúl Rangel | 26 | 1,90m | Deportivo Guadalajara | €6.5m |
| GK | Carlos Acevedo | 30 | 1,84m | Santos Laguna | €2.8m |
| GK | Guillermo Ochoa | 40 | 1,85m | AEL Limassol | €300k |
| CB | Johan Vásquez | 27 | 1,85m | Genoa CFC | €12.0m |
| CB | César Montes | 29 | 1,95m | Lokomotiv Moscow | €7.5m |
| CB | Luis Romo | 31 | 1,80m | Deportivo Guadalajara | €3.0m |
| LB | Mateo Chávez | 22 | 1,73m | AZ Alkmaar | €4.0m |
| LB | Jesús Gallardo | 31 | 1,78m | Deportivo Toluca | €2.8m |
| RB | Israel Reyes | 26 | 1,80m | CF América | €6.5m |
| RB | Jorge Sánchez | 28 | 1,81m | PAOK Thessaloniki | €2.2m |
| DM | Edson Álvarez | 28 | 1,90m | Fenerbahce | €15.0m |
| DM | Érik Lira | 26 | 1,72m | CD Cruz Azul | €12.0m |
| DM | Luis Chávez | 30 | 1,76m | Dynamo Moscow | €6.0m |
| CM | Álvaro Fidalgo | 29 | 1,74m | Real Betis Balompié | €10.0m |
| CM | Obed Vargas | 20 | 1,75m | Atlético de Madrid | €8.0m |
| CM | Orbelín Pineda | 30 | 1,69m | AEK Athens | €7.0m |
| AM | Gilberto Mora | 17 | 1,75m | Club Tijuana | €10.0m |
| AM | Brian Gutiérrez | 22 | 1,78m | Deportivo Guadalajara | €8.0m |
| LW | Alexis Vega | 28 | 1,74m | Deportivo Toluca | €8.0m |
| LW | César Huerta | 26 | 1,72m | RSC Anderlecht | €5.0m |
| RW | Roberto Alvarado | 27 | 1,76m | Deportivo Guadalajara | €7.5m |
| CF | Santiago Gimenez | 25 | 1,80m | AC Milan | €18.0m |
| CF | Armando González | 23 | 1,79m | Deportivo Guadalajara | €15.0m |
| CF | Julián Quiñones | 29 | 1,80m | Al-Qadsiah FC | €12.0m |
| CF | Raúl Jiménez | 35 | 1,87m | Fulham FC | €4.0m |
| CF | Guillermo Martínez | 31 | 1,90m | UNAM Pumas | €1.5m |
Important note: This simulator and its probability outputs are for entertainment and informational purposes only. They are not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, trade, or participate in any prediction market. No real-money contest is offered or accepted on baplab.