Group A

Mexico Mexico

This profile is based on 100,000 simulations using the current WC26 simulator engine. The numbers are a model snapshot, not a guarantee. Team ratings, squads and injury updates may change over time.

Champion 1.2%
Group qualification 86.7%
Squad value €194.6m
Avg age 27.9
Avg height 1.799m
Manager Javier Aguirre

Group

Finish probabilities

1st 41.7%
2nd 29.3%
3rd qualified 15.6%
3rd not qualified 4.2%
4th 9.2%

Tournament

Stage reach probabilities

R32 86.7%
R16 50.3%
QF 22.1%
SF 8.4%
Final 3.4%
Champion 1.2%

Conditional path

Path by group finish

Finish Sample R32R16QFSFFinalChampion
1st 41.7% 100.0%58.9%23.9%9.2%3.7%1.3%
2nd 29.3% 100.0%61.6%27.4%10.5%4.1%1.6%
3rd 19.8% 78.8%38.7%20.8%7.5%3.2%1.1%

Overall opponent pool

Most common opponents by round

If reached shows the opponent split among this team's matches in that round. All sims shows how often the matchup happens across the full 100,000-simulation snapshot.

R32

Belgium Belgium If reached: 11.8% All sims: 10.3% Win rate: 41.0%
Canada Canada If reached: 11.1% All sims: 9.6% Win rate: 60.6%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 9.8% All sims: 8.5% Win rate: 50.3%
Bosnia-Herz. Bosnia-Herz. If reached: 9.2% All sims: 8.0% Win rate: 66.1%
Ivory Coast Ivory Coast If reached: 7.4% All sims: 6.4% Win rate: 53.3%

R16

England England If reached: 22.5% All sims: 11.3% Win rate: 30.9%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 11.1% All sims: 5.6% Win rate: 37.8%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 8.1% All sims: 4.1% Win rate: 43.5%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 7.1% All sims: 3.6% Win rate: 47.2%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 5.7% All sims: 2.9% Win rate: 31.9%

QF

France France If reached: 17.9% All sims: 4.0% Win rate: 25.4%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 12.9% All sims: 2.9% Win rate: 30.6%
Germany Germany If reached: 11.1% All sims: 2.5% Win rate: 34.6%
Norway Norway If reached: 8.6% All sims: 1.9% Win rate: 40.9%
Spain Spain If reached: 7.2% All sims: 1.6% Win rate: 24.9%

SF

Spain Spain If reached: 14.7% All sims: 1.2% Win rate: 27.0%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 12.3% All sims: 1.0% Win rate: 26.6%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 10.9% All sims: 0.9% Win rate: 33.8%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 6.3% All sims: 0.5% Win rate: 44.0%
France France If reached: 4.8% All sims: 0.4% Win rate: 27.3%

Final

France France If reached: 12.2% All sims: 0.4% Win rate: 26.6%
Spain Spain If reached: 11.8% All sims: 0.4% Win rate: 27.3%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 9.5% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 26.3%
England England If reached: 8.7% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 31.7%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 8.4% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 35.0%

Finish 1st

Mexico opponent pool if finishing 1st

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Ivory Coast Ivory Coast If reached: 15.0% Path sims: 15.0% Win rate: 53.3%
Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 14.2% Path sims: 14.2% Win rate: 50.2%
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia If reached: 11.6% Path sims: 11.6% Win rate: 78.6%
Scotland Scotland If reached: 10.5% Path sims: 10.5% Win rate: 63.1%
Cape Verde Cape Verde If reached: 10.3% Path sims: 10.3% Win rate: 80.4%

R16

England England If reached: 46.0% Path sims: 27.1% Win rate: 30.9%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 16.7% Path sims: 9.8% Win rate: 43.5%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 6.2% Path sims: 3.7% Win rate: 45.9%
DR Congo DR Congo If reached: 5.7% Path sims: 3.4% Win rate: 65.7%
Senegal Senegal If reached: 4.5% Path sims: 2.7% Win rate: 52.0%

QF

Brazil Brazil If reached: 26.9% Path sims: 6.4% Win rate: 30.3%
France France If reached: 12.5% Path sims: 3.0% Win rate: 24.7%
Norway Norway If reached: 11.6% Path sims: 2.8% Win rate: 40.9%
Germany Germany If reached: 8.9% Path sims: 2.1% Win rate: 34.7%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 8.0% Path sims: 1.9% Win rate: 35.6%

SF

Argentina Argentina If reached: 22.8% Path sims: 2.1% Win rate: 26.5%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 18.5% Path sims: 1.7% Win rate: 34.3%
Spain Spain If reached: 7.9% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 27.9%
Uruguay Uruguay If reached: 7.2% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 47.3%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 5.9% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 53.1%

Final

Spain Spain If reached: 18.3% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 26.4%
France France If reached: 16.8% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 26.1%
Germany Germany If reached: 7.1% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 36.4%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 6.6% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 36.3%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 6.1% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 40.0%

Finish 2nd

Mexico opponent pool if finishing 2nd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Canada Canada If reached: 32.7% Path sims: 32.7% Win rate: 60.6%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 28.9% Path sims: 28.9% Win rate: 50.3%
Bosnia-Herz. Bosnia-Herz. If reached: 27.3% Path sims: 27.3% Win rate: 66.1%
Qatar Qatar If reached: 11.1% Path sims: 11.1% Win rate: 82.8%

R16

Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 30.7% Path sims: 18.9% Win rate: 37.7%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 19.6% Path sims: 12.1% Win rate: 47.2%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 16.0% Path sims: 9.8% Win rate: 31.9%
Japan Japan If reached: 13.3% Path sims: 8.2% Win rate: 48.6%
Sweden Sweden If reached: 10.1% Path sims: 6.2% Win rate: 55.8%

QF

France France If reached: 33.8% Path sims: 9.3% Win rate: 25.7%
Germany Germany If reached: 19.5% Path sims: 5.4% Win rate: 34.5%
Norway Norway If reached: 9.1% Path sims: 2.5% Win rate: 40.9%
Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 4.8% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 52.6%
Ivory Coast Ivory Coast If reached: 4.3% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 57.4%

SF

Spain Spain If reached: 29.6% Path sims: 3.1% Win rate: 27.2%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 12.2% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 44.8%
England England If reached: 7.1% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 30.9%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 6.6% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 31.9%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 5.9% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 40.3%

Final

Argentina Argentina If reached: 14.4% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 29.3%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 12.7% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 34.4%
England England If reached: 11.7% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 36.9%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 9.5% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 27.8%
France France If reached: 8.1% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 28.6%

Finish 3rd

Mexico opponent pool if finishing 3rd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Belgium Belgium If reached: 65.7% Path sims: 51.8% Win rate: 41.0%
Egypt Egypt If reached: 20.1% Path sims: 15.9% Win rate: 63.5%
Iran Iran If reached: 6.7% Path sims: 5.3% Win rate: 75.7%
New Zealand New Zealand If reached: 2.7% Path sims: 2.2% Win rate: 85.5%
Germany Germany If reached: 2.5% Path sims: 1.9% Win rate: 35.2%

R16

USA USA If reached: 24.3% Path sims: 9.4% Win rate: 48.4%
Türkiye Türkiye If reached: 22.0% Path sims: 8.5% Win rate: 48.7%
Bosnia-Herz. Bosnia-Herz. If reached: 8.1% Path sims: 3.1% Win rate: 68.2%
Canada Canada If reached: 8.0% Path sims: 3.1% Win rate: 62.7%
Paraguay Paraguay If reached: 7.4% Path sims: 2.9% Win rate: 63.1%

QF

Spain Spain If reached: 38.2% Path sims: 8.0% Win rate: 24.9%
England England If reached: 9.5% Path sims: 2.0% Win rate: 33.1%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 8.7% Path sims: 1.8% Win rate: 31.4%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 8.3% Path sims: 1.7% Win rate: 44.8%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 8.0% Path sims: 1.7% Win rate: 47.4%

SF

France France If reached: 23.9% Path sims: 1.8% Win rate: 26.6%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 13.4% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 43.2%
Germany Germany If reached: 13.2% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 36.9%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 7.0% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 35.0%
Norway Norway If reached: 5.6% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 44.6%

Final

Argentina Argentina If reached: 15.3% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 25.0%
England England If reached: 12.4% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 26.9%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 10.7% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 31.3%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 9.6% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 36.7%
France France If reached: 8.6% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 25.9%

Squad

Current squad

26 players
Pos Player Age Height Club Value
GK Raúl Rangel 26 1,90m Deportivo Guadalajara €6.5m
GK Carlos Acevedo 30 1,84m Santos Laguna €2.8m
GK Guillermo Ochoa 40 1,85m AEL Limassol €300k
CB Johan Vásquez 27 1,85m Genoa CFC €12.0m
CB César Montes 29 1,95m Lokomotiv Moscow €7.5m
CB Luis Romo 31 1,80m Deportivo Guadalajara €3.0m
LB Mateo Chávez 22 1,73m AZ Alkmaar €4.0m
LB Jesús Gallardo 31 1,78m Deportivo Toluca €2.8m
RB Israel Reyes 26 1,80m CF América €6.5m
RB Jorge Sánchez 28 1,81m PAOK Thessaloniki €2.2m
DM Edson Álvarez 28 1,90m Fenerbahce €15.0m
DM Érik Lira 26 1,72m CD Cruz Azul €12.0m
DM Luis Chávez 30 1,76m Dynamo Moscow €6.0m
CM Álvaro Fidalgo 29 1,74m Real Betis Balompié €10.0m
CM Obed Vargas 20 1,75m Atlético de Madrid €8.0m
CM Orbelín Pineda 30 1,69m AEK Athens €7.0m
AM Gilberto Mora 17 1,75m Club Tijuana €10.0m
AM Brian Gutiérrez 22 1,78m Deportivo Guadalajara €8.0m
LW Alexis Vega 28 1,74m Deportivo Toluca €8.0m
LW César Huerta 26 1,72m RSC Anderlecht €5.0m
RW Roberto Alvarado 27 1,76m Deportivo Guadalajara €7.5m
CF Santiago Gimenez 25 1,80m AC Milan €18.0m
CF Armando González 23 1,79m Deportivo Guadalajara €15.0m
CF Julián Quiñones 29 1,80m Al-Qadsiah FC €12.0m
CF Raúl Jiménez 35 1,87m Fulham FC €4.0m
CF Guillermo Martínez 31 1,90m UNAM Pumas €1.5m