Match analysis
Mexico vs South Africa 
Match forecast and score distribution for Match 1, Group A, generated from the current simulator ratings.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: Mexico 2-0 South Africa ยท Final. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Goal bands
Total goals distribution
0 6.3%
1 17.0%
2 24.4%
3 22.4%
4 15.4%
5+ 14.5%
Goal thresholds
Total-goal thresholds
Total 0.5 At least 93.8% Below 6.3%
Total 1.5 At least 76.8% Below 23.2%
Total 2.5 At least 52.4% Below 47.6%
Total 3.5 At least 30.0% Below 70.0%
Total 4.5 At least 14.5% Below 85.5%
Team goals
Mexico goal thresholds
Mexico 0.5 At least 87.4% Below 12.6%
Mexico 1.5 At least 61.6% Below 38.4%
Mexico 2.5 At least 34.3% Below 65.7%
Mexico 3.5 At least 15.5% Below 84.5%
Mexico 4.5 At least 5.7% Below 94.3%
Team goals
South Africa goal thresholds
South Africa 0.5 At least 50.6% Below 49.4%
South Africa 1.5 At least 15.3% Below 84.8%
South Africa 2.5 At least 3.4% Below 96.6%
South Africa 3.5 At least 0.6% Below 99.4%
South Africa 4.5 At least 0.1% Below 99.9%
Scoring frequency
Both teams scoring
Both teams score 44.2%
Mexico clean sheet 49.4%
South Africa clean sheet 12.6%
Common scorelines
Top exact scores
1 Mexico 2-0 South Africa 13.6%
2 Mexico 1-0 South Africa 12.5%
3 Mexico 2-1 South Africa 9.7%
4 Mexico 1-1 South Africa 9.3%
5 Mexico 3-0 South Africa 9.3%
6 Mexico 3-1 South Africa 6.6%
7 Mexico 0-0 South Africa 6.3%
8 Mexico 4-0 South Africa 4.9%
9 Mexico 0-1 South Africa 4.4%
10 Mexico 4-1 South Africa 3.4%
Guide
What this simulation preview shows
This page is a direct match simulation reference for one fixture. It uses the simulator's current team ratings and venue context to estimate score patterns, not a full tournament-path run.
Score distribution
How to read the numbers
Average score is the mean goals per team across all runs. Total-goal bands group matches by combined goals, both-team scoring frequency shows how often each side scores at least once, and common scorelines show the most frequent exact results in the sample.
Model note
Simulation reference, not certainty
A real match can land far away from the most common model outcomes. Use these outputs as a way to understand the range of plausible scorelines, not as a guarantee or betting advice.