Group F

Sweden Sweden

This profile is based on 100,000 simulations using the current WC26 simulator engine. The numbers are a model snapshot, not a guarantee. Team ratings, squads and injury updates may change over time.

Champion 0.6%
Group qualification 76.0%
Squad value €428.2m
Avg age 27.6
Avg height 1.863m
Manager Graham Potter

Group

Finish probabilities

1st 21.3%
2nd 30.2%
3rd qualified 24.6%
3rd not qualified 8.8%
4th 15.1%

Tournament

Stage reach probabilities

R32 76.0%
R16 28.8%
QF 13.1%
SF 5.0%
Final 1.8%
Champion 0.6%

Conditional path

Path by group finish

Finish Sample R32R16QFSFFinalChampion
1st 21.3% 100.0%46.9%25.4%8.9%3.1%1.0%
2nd 30.2% 100.0%36.4%14.2%5.6%2.1%0.7%
3rd 33.4% 73.5%23.6%10.2%4.4%1.6%0.5%

Overall opponent pool

Most common opponents by round

If reached shows the opponent split among this team's matches in that round. All sims shows how often the matchup happens across the full 100,000-simulation snapshot.

R32

Brazil Brazil If reached: 32.4% All sims: 24.7% Win rate: 28.0%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 21.2% All sims: 16.1% Win rate: 45.0%
France France If reached: 17.5% All sims: 13.3% Win rate: 22.4%
Scotland Scotland If reached: 10.9% All sims: 8.3% Win rate: 59.6%
Norway Norway If reached: 7.0% All sims: 5.3% Win rate: 37.7%

R16

Germany Germany If reached: 14.9% All sims: 4.3% Win rate: 32.2%
Norway Norway If reached: 9.7% All sims: 2.8% Win rate: 37.5%
France France If reached: 8.7% All sims: 2.5% Win rate: 22.3%
Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 8.6% All sims: 2.5% Win rate: 47.4%
Ivory Coast Ivory Coast If reached: 7.3% All sims: 2.1% Win rate: 50.6%

QF

France France If reached: 14.6% All sims: 1.9% Win rate: 22.7%
England England If reached: 11.4% All sims: 1.5% Win rate: 26.4%
Germany Germany If reached: 9.2% All sims: 1.2% Win rate: 37.1%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 8.8% All sims: 1.2% Win rate: 35.7%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 5.0% All sims: 0.6% Win rate: 47.0%

SF

Spain Spain If reached: 21.1% All sims: 1.1% Win rate: 21.6%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 11.9% All sims: 0.6% Win rate: 28.4%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 9.9% All sims: 0.5% Win rate: 30.7%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 9.4% All sims: 0.5% Win rate: 35.9%
Uruguay Uruguay If reached: 5.0% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 44.8%

Final

Argentina Argentina If reached: 11.4% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 22.5%
France France If reached: 11.2% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 24.4%
England England If reached: 9.5% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 24.7%
Spain Spain If reached: 9.4% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 21.5%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 9.2% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 22.6%

Finish 1st

Sweden opponent pool if finishing 1st

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Morocco Morocco If reached: 41.8% Path sims: 41.8% Win rate: 45.1%
Scotland Scotland If reached: 24.9% Path sims: 24.9% Win rate: 59.3%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 24.9% Path sims: 24.9% Win rate: 27.1%
Haiti Haiti If reached: 8.4% Path sims: 8.4% Win rate: 77.9%

R16

Mexico Mexico If reached: 18.2% Path sims: 8.6% Win rate: 44.2%
South Korea South Korea If reached: 17.5% Path sims: 8.2% Win rate: 51.2%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 16.3% Path sims: 7.6% Win rate: 44.6%
Canada Canada If reached: 15.7% Path sims: 7.4% Win rate: 57.7%
Czechia Czechia If reached: 14.1% Path sims: 6.6% Win rate: 57.5%

QF

France France If reached: 33.8% Path sims: 8.6% Win rate: 22.7%
Germany Germany If reached: 19.8% Path sims: 5.0% Win rate: 37.0%
Norway Norway If reached: 8.5% Path sims: 2.2% Win rate: 33.4%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 6.8% Path sims: 1.7% Win rate: 38.4%
Japan Japan If reached: 5.3% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 39.3%

SF

Spain Spain If reached: 29.6% Path sims: 2.6% Win rate: 20.6%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 12.2% Path sims: 1.1% Win rate: 39.6%
England England If reached: 7.1% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 33.6%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 6.9% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 33.8%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 5.1% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 32.0%

Final

Argentina Argentina If reached: 15.6% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 16.5%
England England If reached: 12.4% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 25.6%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 10.8% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 19.7%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 10.0% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 24.2%
France France If reached: 7.4% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 28.6%

Finish 2nd

Sweden opponent pool if finishing 2nd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Brazil Brazil If reached: 64.1% Path sims: 64.1% Win rate: 28.2%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 24.0% Path sims: 24.0% Win rate: 44.9%
Scotland Scotland If reached: 9.9% Path sims: 9.9% Win rate: 60.1%
Haiti Haiti If reached: 2.0% Path sims: 2.0% Win rate: 79.2%

R16

Norway Norway If reached: 23.7% Path sims: 8.6% Win rate: 37.4%
France France If reached: 18.3% Path sims: 6.7% Win rate: 22.5%
Germany Germany If reached: 16.3% Path sims: 6.0% Win rate: 32.8%
Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 14.4% Path sims: 5.2% Win rate: 46.3%
Senegal Senegal If reached: 13.4% Path sims: 4.9% Win rate: 48.9%

QF

England England If reached: 34.4% Path sims: 4.9% Win rate: 26.4%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 9.6% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 47.0%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 8.7% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 43.8%
South Korea South Korea If reached: 5.7% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 50.0%
Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 3.8% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 46.3%

SF

Argentina Argentina If reached: 25.4% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 29.1%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 17.9% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 28.8%
Spain Spain If reached: 7.2% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 24.8%
Uruguay Uruguay If reached: 6.9% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 43.1%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 5.6% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 44.2%

Final

France France If reached: 17.0% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 21.5%
Spain Spain If reached: 16.7% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 23.8%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 9.4% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 45.8%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 6.7% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 42.9%
Germany Germany If reached: 6.0% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 39.5%

Finish 3rd

Sweden opponent pool if finishing 3rd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

France France If reached: 54.2% Path sims: 39.8% Win rate: 22.4%
Norway Norway If reached: 21.8% Path sims: 16.0% Win rate: 37.7%
Senegal Senegal If reached: 10.2% Path sims: 7.5% Win rate: 50.5%
Germany Germany If reached: 4.9% Path sims: 3.6% Win rate: 33.0%
Ivory Coast Ivory Coast If reached: 1.9% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 53.6%

R16

Germany Germany If reached: 31.9% Path sims: 7.5% Win rate: 31.8%
Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 11.4% Path sims: 2.7% Win rate: 49.3%
Ivory Coast Ivory Coast If reached: 9.2% Path sims: 2.2% Win rate: 52.2%
France France If reached: 6.4% Path sims: 1.5% Win rate: 21.4%
Paraguay Paraguay If reached: 5.6% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 61.8%

QF

Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 23.1% Path sims: 2.3% Win rate: 34.4%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 11.9% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 27.5%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 10.4% Path sims: 1.1% Win rate: 41.8%
Japan Japan If reached: 10.1% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 43.4%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 6.9% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 47.6%

SF

Spain Spain If reached: 26.3% Path sims: 1.1% Win rate: 22.2%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 12.2% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 35.0%
USA USA If reached: 5.6% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 57.3%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 5.4% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 38.5%
England England If reached: 5.3% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 28.6%

Final

Argentina Argentina If reached: 15.0% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 27.2%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 12.6% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 26.5%
England England If reached: 12.4% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 22.4%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 10.4% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 30.4%
France France If reached: 9.1% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 26.5%

Squad

Current squad

26 players
Pos Player Age Height Club Value
GK Viktor Johansson 27 1,86m Stoke City €12.0m
GK Jacob Widell Zetterström 27 1,97m Derby County €2.5m
GK Kristoffer Nordfeldt 36 1,90m AIK €175k
CB Isak Hien 27 1,91m Atalanta BC €22.0m
CB Gustaf Lagerbielke 26 1,93m SC Braga €10.0m
CB Victor Lindelöf 31 1,87m Aston Villa €6.0m
CB Hjalmar Ekdal 27 1,87m Burnley FC €6.0m
CB Carl Starfelt 31 1,87m Celta de Vigo €5.0m
CB Eric Smith 29 1,92m FC St. Pauli €5.0m
LB Daniel Svensson 24 1,83m Borussia Dortmund €22.0m
LB Gabriel Gudmundsson 27 1,80m Leeds United €20.0m
LB Ken Sema 32 1,80m Pafos FC €1.0m
DM Jesper Karlström 30 1,85m Udinese Calcio €4.0m
CM Lucas Bergvall 20 1,87m Tottenham Hotspur €40.0m
CM Yasin Ayari 22 1,72m Brighton & Hove Albion €30.0m
CM Mattias Svanberg 27 1,85m VfL Wolfsburg €8.0m
CM Besfort Zeneli 23 1,87m Union Saint-Gilloise €4.5m
LM Elliot Stroud 23 1,85m Mjällby AIF €3.0m
RM Herman Johansson 28 1,90m FC Dallas €1.8m
AM Benjamin Nygren 24 1,88m Celtic FC €14.0m
LW Taha Ali 27 1,74m Malmö FF €1.2m
RW Anthony Elanga 24 1,78m Newcastle United €40.0m
RW Alexander Bernhardsson 27 1,84m Holstein Kiel €3.0m
CF Alexander Isak 26 1,92m Liverpool FC €100.0m
CF Viktor Gyökeres 28 1,89m Arsenal FC €65.0m
CF Gustaf Nilsson 29 1,96m Club Brugge KV €2.0m