Group
Finish probabilities
1st 0%
2nd 100.0%
3rd place 0% Qualified from 3rd 0% Eliminated in 3rd 0%
4th 0%
Group F
Japan
The most improved national team of the last decade, which is a statement that keeps being true. The Bundesliga cohort has given them genuine tactical sophistication, pressing intensity, and belief. Physically they are limited against elite opponents and aerial duels are a persistent problem. They beat Germany and Spain in 2022. Nobody is writing them off anymore.
This profile summarizes Japan's World Cup 2026 simulation path from the latest current-state snapshot: group outlook, finish distribution, possible knockout routes, opponent pools, squad context, and title chances.
Champion 0%
Group qualification 100%
Squad market €277.9m
Avg age 27.5
Avg height 1.819m
Manager Hajime Moriyasu
Saved forecast
Forecast as of Updated 2026-07-15 10:47 UTC, based on 10k current-state simulations. Tournament-wide official results included at that time stay fixed. These are saved model forecasts, not the team's actual final finish.
Tournament-wide result cutoff: France 0-2 Spain
Guide
How to read this team profile
Group finish and stage reach values are model outputs from the latest current-state team profile snapshot. Path sections show how Japan's route changes by group finish, while opponent pools summarize the teams most often appearing in each round.
Other forecast pages may show a different saved date. The interactive replay simulator is separate: changing Team Strength settings creates alternative scenarios without changing this saved forecast.
Tournament
Stage reach probabilities
R32 100%
R16 0%
QF 0%
SF 0%
Final 0%
Champion 0%
Conditional path
Path by group finish
| Finish | Sample | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | No longer possible | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2nd | 100.0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 3rd | No longer possible | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Overall opponent pool
Most common opponents by round
If reached shows the opponent split among this team's matches in that round. All sims shows how often the matchup happens across the latest current-state snapshot.
R32
Brazil If reached: 100.0% All sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 0% R16
No opponent samples.
QF
No opponent samples.
SF
No opponent samples.
Final
No opponent samples.
Finish 1st
Japan opponent pool if finishing 1st
For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.
R32
No longer possible
R16
No longer possible
QF
No longer possible
SF
No longer possible
Final
No longer possible
Finish 2nd
Japan opponent pool if finishing 2nd
For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.
R32
Brazil If reached: 100.0% Path sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 0% R16
Not enough samples.
QF
Not enough samples.
SF
Not enough samples.
Final
Not enough samples.
Finish 3rd
Japan opponent pool if finishing 3rd
For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.
R32
No longer possible
R16
No longer possible
QF
No longer possible
SF
No longer possible
Final
No longer possible
Squad
Current squad
| Pos | Player | Age | Height | Club | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GK | Zion Suzuki | 23 | 1,90m | Parma Calcio 1913 | €20.0m |
| GK | Keisuke Osako | 26 | 1,90m | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | €2.0m |
| GK | Tomoki Hayakawa | 27 | 1,87m | Kashima Antlers | €1.5m |
| CB | Hiroki Ito | 27 | 1,88m | Bayern Munich | €18.0m |
| CB | Tsuyoshi Watanabe | 29 | 1,86m | Feyenoord Rotterdam | €10.0m |
| CB | Ko Itakura | 29 | 1.88m | Ajax Amsterdam | €8.0m |
| CB | Junnosuke Suzuki | 22 | 1,85m | FC Copenhagen | €3.5m |
| CB | Shogo Taniguchi | 34 | 1,83m | Sint-Truidense VV | €800k |
| LB | Yuto Nagatomo | 39 | 1,70m | FC Tokyo | €100k |
| RB | Yukinari Sugawara | 25 | 1,79m | SV Werder Bremen | €5.5m |
| RB | Takehiro Tomiyasu | 27 | 1.87m | Ajax Amsterdam | €5.0m |
| DM | Kaishu Sano | 25 | 1,76m | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | €40.0m |
| DM | Ayumu Seko | 26 | 1,86m | Le Havre AC | €5.0m |
| CM | Ao Tanaka | 27 | 1,80m | Leeds United | €10.0m |
| AM | Daichi Kamada | 29 | 1,80m | Crystal Palace | €12.0m |
| LW | Ritsu Doan | 27 | 1,72m | Eintracht Frankfurt | €17.0m |
| LW | Daizen Maeda | 28 | 1,73m | Celtic FC | €13.0m |
| LW | Keito Nakamura | 25 | 1,80m | Stade Reims | €10.0m |
| RW | Takefusa Kubo | 25 | 1.73m | Real Sociedad | €30.0m |
| RW | Junya Ito | 33 | 1,77m | KRC Genk | €3.5m |
| SS | Yuito Suzuki | 24 | 1,75m | SC Freiburg | €24.0m |
| CF | Ayase Ueda | 27 | 1,82m | Feyenoord Rotterdam | €17.0m |
| CF | Kento Shiogai | 21 | 1,80m | VfL Wolfsburg | €8.0m |
| CF | Keisuke Goto | 21 | 1,91m | Sint-Truidense VV | €8.0m |
| CF | Shuto Machino | 26 | 1,85m | Borussia Mönchengladbach | €4.0m |
| CF | Koki Ogawa | 28 | 1,86m | NEC Nijmegen | €2.0m |
Important note: This simulator and its probability outputs are for entertainment and informational purposes only. They are not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, trade, or participate in any prediction market. No real-money contest is offered or accepted on baplab.