Group F

Japan Japan

This profile is based on 100,000 simulations using the current WC26 simulator engine. The numbers are a model snapshot, not a guarantee. Team ratings, squads and injury updates may change over time.

Champion 1.0%
Group qualification 80.8%
Squad value €278.9m
Avg age 27.8
Avg height 1.816m
Manager Hajime Moriyasu

Group

Finish probabilities

1st 26.1%
2nd 32.8%
3rd qualified 21.9%
3rd not qualified 7.3%
4th 11.9%

Tournament

Stage reach probabilities

R32 80.8%
R16 34.2%
QF 17.1%
SF 7.2%
Final 2.8%
Champion 1.0%

Conditional path

Path by group finish

Finish Sample R32R16QFSFFinalChampion
1st 26.1% 100.0%50.7%29.6%11.6%4.7%1.7%
2nd 32.8% 100.0%40.0%17.4%7.6%2.9%1.1%
3rd 29.2% 74.9%26.9%12.5%5.9%2.2%0.8%

Overall opponent pool

Most common opponents by round

If reached shows the opponent split among this team's matches in that round. All sims shows how often the matchup happens across the full 100,000-simulation snapshot.

R32

Brazil Brazil If reached: 34.0% All sims: 27.5% Win rate: 31.6%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 23.2% All sims: 18.8% Win rate: 49.2%
France France If reached: 14.8% All sims: 12.0% Win rate: 27.0%
Scotland Scotland If reached: 12.3% All sims: 9.9% Win rate: 62.8%
Norway Norway If reached: 5.7% All sims: 4.6% Win rate: 43.0%

R16

Germany Germany If reached: 13.4% All sims: 4.6% Win rate: 37.4%
Norway Norway If reached: 9.4% All sims: 3.2% Win rate: 42.1%
France France If reached: 8.7% All sims: 3.0% Win rate: 26.4%
Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 8.3% All sims: 2.8% Win rate: 51.6%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 7.2% All sims: 2.4% Win rate: 51.4%

QF

France France If reached: 16.2% All sims: 2.8% Win rate: 26.7%
England England If reached: 11.2% All sims: 1.9% Win rate: 31.0%
Germany Germany If reached: 9.7% All sims: 1.7% Win rate: 38.4%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 8.3% All sims: 1.4% Win rate: 40.0%
Norway Norway If reached: 5.2% All sims: 0.9% Win rate: 41.5%

SF

Spain Spain If reached: 22.6% All sims: 1.6% Win rate: 25.7%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 11.4% All sims: 0.8% Win rate: 29.6%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 10.2% All sims: 0.7% Win rate: 31.8%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 8.9% All sims: 0.6% Win rate: 41.1%
England England If reached: 5.1% All sims: 0.4% Win rate: 30.6%

Final

Spain Spain If reached: 11.1% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 28.8%
France France If reached: 10.7% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 27.0%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 10.0% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 27.2%
England England If reached: 9.6% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 34.3%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 9.3% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 31.1%

Finish 1st

Japan opponent pool if finishing 1st

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Morocco Morocco If reached: 41.5% Path sims: 41.5% Win rate: 49.2%
Scotland Scotland If reached: 25.6% Path sims: 25.6% Win rate: 62.9%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 24.7% Path sims: 24.7% Win rate: 30.9%
Haiti Haiti If reached: 8.2% Path sims: 8.2% Win rate: 79.7%

R16

Mexico Mexico If reached: 18.2% Path sims: 9.2% Win rate: 51.4%
South Korea South Korea If reached: 17.2% Path sims: 8.7% Win rate: 54.0%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 16.7% Path sims: 8.5% Win rate: 50.0%
Canada Canada If reached: 15.5% Path sims: 7.9% Win rate: 60.3%
Czechia Czechia If reached: 13.7% Path sims: 7.0% Win rate: 62.8%

QF

France France If reached: 34.4% Path sims: 10.2% Win rate: 26.5%
Germany Germany If reached: 19.1% Path sims: 5.7% Win rate: 38.0%
Norway Norway If reached: 9.1% Path sims: 2.7% Win rate: 40.8%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 6.6% Path sims: 2.0% Win rate: 43.1%
Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 5.2% Path sims: 1.5% Win rate: 50.4%

SF

Spain Spain If reached: 30.9% Path sims: 3.6% Win rate: 25.9%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 11.7% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 42.0%
England England If reached: 7.0% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 32.9%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 5.6% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 46.2%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 5.2% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 35.0%

Final

England England If reached: 13.3% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 40.7%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 12.5% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 25.0%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 11.4% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 30.2%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 11.2% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 35.3%
France France If reached: 6.7% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 26.8%

Finish 2nd

Japan opponent pool if finishing 2nd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Brazil Brazil If reached: 64.1% Path sims: 64.1% Win rate: 31.8%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 24.1% Path sims: 24.1% Win rate: 49.3%
Scotland Scotland If reached: 9.8% Path sims: 9.8% Win rate: 62.6%
Haiti Haiti If reached: 1.9% Path sims: 1.9% Win rate: 77.8%

R16

Norway Norway If reached: 23.1% Path sims: 9.2% Win rate: 42.1%
France France If reached: 19.3% Path sims: 7.7% Win rate: 26.5%
Germany Germany If reached: 15.8% Path sims: 6.3% Win rate: 37.8%
Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 14.5% Path sims: 5.8% Win rate: 52.1%
Senegal Senegal If reached: 13.4% Path sims: 5.3% Win rate: 53.9%

QF

England England If reached: 33.4% Path sims: 5.8% Win rate: 31.0%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 10.1% Path sims: 1.8% Win rate: 49.7%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 9.6% Path sims: 1.7% Win rate: 45.7%
South Korea South Korea If reached: 5.5% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 61.5%
Ivory Coast Ivory Coast If reached: 4.0% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 51.8%

SF

Argentina Argentina If reached: 23.7% Path sims: 1.8% Win rate: 28.1%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 19.2% Path sims: 1.5% Win rate: 31.4%
Spain Spain If reached: 7.4% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 30.8%
Uruguay Uruguay If reached: 6.9% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 40.9%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 6.0% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 54.1%

Final

Spain Spain If reached: 20.3% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 31.1%
France France If reached: 16.9% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 28.2%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 7.8% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 36.0%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 6.8% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 24.2%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 5.8% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 33.9%

Finish 3rd

Japan opponent pool if finishing 3rd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

France France If reached: 54.7% Path sims: 40.9% Win rate: 27.0%
Norway Norway If reached: 21.2% Path sims: 15.9% Win rate: 43.0%
Senegal Senegal If reached: 9.6% Path sims: 7.2% Win rate: 51.5%
Germany Germany If reached: 5.0% Path sims: 3.8% Win rate: 35.5%
Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 2.0% Path sims: 1.5% Win rate: 47.1%

R16

Germany Germany If reached: 32.0% Path sims: 8.6% Win rate: 37.1%
Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 11.7% Path sims: 3.1% Win rate: 50.6%
Ivory Coast Ivory Coast If reached: 9.2% Path sims: 2.5% Win rate: 53.8%
France France If reached: 5.8% Path sims: 1.6% Win rate: 25.4%
Paraguay Paraguay If reached: 5.5% Path sims: 1.5% Win rate: 61.7%

QF

Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 24.7% Path sims: 3.1% Win rate: 38.4%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 11.9% Path sims: 1.5% Win rate: 48.4%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 11.6% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 28.7%
Sweden Sweden If reached: 8.1% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 60.8%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 6.9% Path sims: 0.9% Win rate: 57.8%

SF

Spain Spain If reached: 29.6% Path sims: 1.7% Win rate: 23.5%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 10.9% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 37.2%
England England If reached: 6.2% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 28.0%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 6.1% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 27.4%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 6.0% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 29.1%

Final

Argentina Argentina If reached: 12.5% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 39.5%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 12.0% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 24.4%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 11.3% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 31.5%
England England If reached: 10.6% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 21.7%
France France If reached: 9.1% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 23.7%

Squad

Current squad

26 players
Pos Player Age Height Club Value
GK Zion Suzuki 23 1,90m Parma Calcio 1913 €20.0m
GK Keisuke Osako 26 1,90m Sanfrecce Hiroshima €2.0m
GK Tomoki Hayakawa 27 1,87m Kashima Antlers €1.5m
CB Hiroki Ito 27 1,88m Bayern Munich €18.0m
CB Tsuyoshi Watanabe 29 1,86m Feyenoord Rotterdam €10.0m
CB Ko Itakura 29 1.88m Ajax Amsterdam €8.0m
CB Junnosuke Suzuki 22 1,85m FC Copenhagen €3.5m
CB Shogo Taniguchi 34 1,83m Sint-Truidense VV €800k
LB Yuto Nagatomo 39 1,70m FC Tokyo €100k
RB Yukinari Sugawara 25 1,79m SV Werder Bremen €5.5m
RB Takehiro Tomiyasu 27 1.87m Ajax Amsterdam €5.0m
DM Kaishu Sano 25 1,76m 1.FSV Mainz 05 €40.0m
DM Wataru Endo 33 1.78m Liverpool FC €5.0m
DM Ayumu Seko 26 1,86m Le Havre AC €5.0m
CM Ao Tanaka 27 1,80m Leeds United €10.0m
AM Daichi Kamada 29 1,80m Crystal Palace €12.0m
LW Ritsu Doan 27 1,72m Eintracht Frankfurt €17.0m
LW Daizen Maeda 28 1,73m Celtic FC €13.0m
LW Keito Nakamura 25 1,80m Stade Reims €10.0m
RW Takefusa Kubo 25 1.73m Real Sociedad €30.0m
RW Junya Ito 33 1,77m KRC Genk €3.5m
SS Yuito Suzuki 24 1,75m SC Freiburg €24.0m
CF Ayase Ueda 27 1,82m Feyenoord Rotterdam €17.0m
CF Kento Shiogai 21 1,80m VfL Wolfsburg €8.0m
CF Keisuke Goto 21 1,91m Sint-Truidense VV €8.0m
CF Koki Ogawa 28 1,86m NEC Nijmegen €2.0m