Group F

Netherlands Netherlands

This profile is based on 100,000 simulations using the current WC26 simulator engine. The numbers are a model snapshot, not a guarantee. Team ratings, squads and injury updates may change over time.

Champion 4.4%
Group qualification 92.1%
Squad value €787.2m
Avg age 27.8
Avg height 1.852m
Manager Ronald Koeman

Group

Finish probabilities

1st 49.8%
2nd 28.9%
3rd qualified 13.4%
3rd not qualified 2.9%
4th 5.0%

Tournament

Stage reach probabilities

R32 92.1%
R16 51.8%
QF 33.0%
SF 17.6%
Final 8.9%
Champion 4.4%

Conditional path

Path by group finish

Finish Sample R32R16QFSFFinalChampion
1st 49.8% 100.0%61.5%42.7%21.7%11.0%5.4%
2nd 28.9% 100.0%50.9%27.7%15.5%7.8%3.8%
3rd 16.3% 82.2%39.6%22.9%14.2%7.3%3.6%

Overall opponent pool

Most common opponents by round

If reached shows the opponent split among this team's matches in that round. All sims shows how often the matchup happens across the full 100,000-simulation snapshot.

R32

Brazil Brazil If reached: 33.6% All sims: 30.9% Win rate: 43.0%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 29.9% All sims: 27.6% Win rate: 60.2%
Scotland Scotland If reached: 16.8% All sims: 15.5% Win rate: 73.1%
France France If reached: 7.8% All sims: 7.2% Win rate: 38.7%
Haiti Haiti If reached: 5.1% All sims: 4.7% Win rate: 87.2%

R16

Mexico Mexico If reached: 10.8% All sims: 5.6% Win rate: 62.2%
South Korea South Korea If reached: 10.5% All sims: 5.5% Win rate: 68.1%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 9.9% All sims: 5.1% Win rate: 62.0%
Canada Canada If reached: 9.2% All sims: 4.8% Win rate: 71.7%
Germany Germany If reached: 8.6% All sims: 4.5% Win rate: 49.8%

QF

France France If reached: 23.3% All sims: 7.7% Win rate: 37.3%
Germany Germany If reached: 13.6% All sims: 4.5% Win rate: 49.6%
England England If reached: 8.0% All sims: 2.7% Win rate: 45.0%
Norway Norway If reached: 6.8% All sims: 2.2% Win rate: 54.1%
Japan Japan If reached: 4.3% All sims: 1.4% Win rate: 60.0%

SF

Spain Spain If reached: 23.6% All sims: 4.1% Win rate: 38.1%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 10.5% All sims: 1.9% Win rate: 40.1%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 10.2% All sims: 1.8% Win rate: 56.0%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 9.3% All sims: 1.6% Win rate: 42.9%
England England If reached: 5.3% All sims: 0.9% Win rate: 43.9%

Final

Argentina Argentina If reached: 12.3% All sims: 1.1% Win rate: 40.3%
England England If reached: 10.7% All sims: 1.0% Win rate: 43.5%
France France If reached: 10.5% All sims: 0.9% Win rate: 39.2%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 9.9% All sims: 0.9% Win rate: 43.3%
Spain Spain If reached: 9.2% All sims: 0.8% Win rate: 38.5%

Finish 1st

Netherlands opponent pool if finishing 1st

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Morocco Morocco If reached: 41.4% Path sims: 41.4% Win rate: 60.2%
Scotland Scotland If reached: 25.4% Path sims: 25.4% Win rate: 73.1%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 25.0% Path sims: 25.0% Win rate: 43.4%
Haiti Haiti If reached: 8.2% Path sims: 8.2% Win rate: 86.8%

R16

Mexico Mexico If reached: 18.1% Path sims: 11.1% Win rate: 62.3%
South Korea South Korea If reached: 17.7% Path sims: 10.9% Win rate: 68.1%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 16.7% Path sims: 10.2% Win rate: 62.0%
Canada Canada If reached: 15.6% Path sims: 9.6% Win rate: 71.7%
Czechia Czechia If reached: 14.1% Path sims: 8.6% Win rate: 72.0%

QF

France France If reached: 35.5% Path sims: 15.2% Win rate: 37.4%
Germany Germany If reached: 20.0% Path sims: 8.5% Win rate: 49.6%
Norway Norway If reached: 9.5% Path sims: 4.0% Win rate: 54.2%
Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 5.0% Path sims: 2.1% Win rate: 63.4%
Japan Japan If reached: 4.2% Path sims: 1.8% Win rate: 61.5%

SF

Spain Spain If reached: 29.2% Path sims: 6.3% Win rate: 37.8%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 12.6% Path sims: 2.7% Win rate: 55.8%
England England If reached: 6.4% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 44.4%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 5.9% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 44.3%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 5.6% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 40.6%

Final

Argentina Argentina If reached: 15.8% Path sims: 1.7% Win rate: 40.0%
England England If reached: 13.0% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 41.9%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 11.1% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 43.7%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 10.6% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 44.6%
France France If reached: 7.3% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 40.9%

Finish 2nd

Netherlands opponent pool if finishing 2nd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Brazil Brazil If reached: 64.0% Path sims: 64.0% Win rate: 42.8%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 24.0% Path sims: 24.0% Win rate: 60.0%
Scotland Scotland If reached: 9.9% Path sims: 9.9% Win rate: 72.8%
Haiti Haiti If reached: 2.1% Path sims: 2.1% Win rate: 89.6%

R16

Norway Norway If reached: 24.5% Path sims: 12.4% Win rate: 53.6%
France France If reached: 18.2% Path sims: 9.3% Win rate: 36.3%
Germany Germany If reached: 16.3% Path sims: 8.3% Win rate: 51.0%
Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 14.6% Path sims: 7.4% Win rate: 62.4%
Senegal Senegal If reached: 12.9% Path sims: 6.6% Win rate: 63.3%

QF

England England If reached: 33.0% Path sims: 9.1% Win rate: 45.1%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 9.9% Path sims: 2.8% Win rate: 64.4%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 9.4% Path sims: 2.6% Win rate: 57.6%
South Korea South Korea If reached: 6.1% Path sims: 1.7% Win rate: 64.5%
Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 4.0% Path sims: 1.1% Win rate: 62.5%

SF

Argentina Argentina If reached: 25.1% Path sims: 3.9% Win rate: 39.3%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 19.1% Path sims: 3.0% Win rate: 41.8%
Spain Spain If reached: 8.1% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 39.7%
Uruguay Uruguay If reached: 7.5% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 55.4%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 5.5% Path sims: 0.9% Win rate: 58.9%

Final

France France If reached: 18.9% Path sims: 1.5% Win rate: 38.3%
Spain Spain If reached: 18.4% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 34.5%
Germany Germany If reached: 8.1% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 45.1%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 6.6% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 40.5%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 5.6% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 53.6%

Finish 3rd

Netherlands opponent pool if finishing 3rd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

France France If reached: 53.6% Path sims: 44.1% Win rate: 38.7%
Norway Norway If reached: 21.7% Path sims: 17.9% Win rate: 54.3%
Senegal Senegal If reached: 10.1% Path sims: 8.3% Win rate: 66.0%
Germany Germany If reached: 5.3% Path sims: 4.4% Win rate: 50.8%
Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 2.2% Path sims: 1.8% Win rate: 63.8%

R16

Germany Germany If reached: 31.8% Path sims: 12.6% Win rate: 48.3%
Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 12.0% Path sims: 4.8% Win rate: 61.5%
Ivory Coast Ivory Coast If reached: 9.6% Path sims: 3.8% Win rate: 69.4%
France France If reached: 5.8% Path sims: 2.3% Win rate: 35.9%
Türkiye Türkiye If reached: 5.5% Path sims: 2.2% Win rate: 59.6%

QF

Japan Japan If reached: 13.8% Path sims: 3.2% Win rate: 57.2%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 12.8% Path sims: 2.9% Win rate: 59.5%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 12.7% Path sims: 2.9% Win rate: 47.4%
Sweden Sweden If reached: 10.0% Path sims: 2.3% Win rate: 61.6%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 8.3% Path sims: 1.9% Win rate: 65.3%

SF

Spain Spain If reached: 27.2% Path sims: 3.8% Win rate: 38.4%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 11.6% Path sims: 1.6% Win rate: 54.9%
England England If reached: 6.5% Path sims: 0.9% Win rate: 39.7%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 6.1% Path sims: 0.9% Win rate: 43.6%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 5.7% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 44.3%

Final

Argentina Argentina If reached: 13.6% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 39.9%
England England If reached: 12.4% Path sims: 0.9% Win rate: 49.0%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 11.2% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 50.7%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 10.7% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 44.5%
France France If reached: 9.7% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 37.1%

Squad

Current squad

26 players
Pos Player Age Height Club Value
GK Bart Verbruggen 23 1,94m Brighton & Hove Albion €40.0m
GK Robin Roefs 23 1,93m Sunderland AFC €25.0m
GK Mark Flekken 33 1,95m Bayer 04 Leverkusen €6.0m
CB Micky van de Ven 25 1,93m Tottenham Hotspur €65.0m
CB Jan Paul van Hecke 26 1,89m Brighton & Hove Albion €35.0m
CB Virgil van Dijk 34 1,95m Liverpool FC €18.0m
CB Nathan Aké 31 1,80m Manchester City €15.0m
LB Jorrel Hato 20 1,82m Chelsea FC €35.0m
RB Denzel Dumfries 30 1,88m Inter Milan €25.0m
RB Mats Wieffer 26 1,88m Brighton & Hove Albion €25.0m
RB Lutsharel Geertruida 25 1,84m Sunderland AFC €20.0m
DM Ryan Gravenberch 24 1,90m Liverpool FC €90.0m
DM Teun Koopmeiners 28 1,84m Juventus FC €14.0m
DM Marten de Roon 35 1,86m Atalanta BC €3.2m
CM Tijjani Reijnders 27 1,85m Manchester City €60.0m
CM Frenkie de Jong 29 1,82m FC Barcelona €45.0m
AM Justin Kluivert 27 1,71m AFC Bournemouth €30.0m
AM Guus Til 28 1,86m PSV Eindhoven €15.0m
LW Cody Gakpo 27 1,93m Liverpool FC €65.0m
LW Crysencio Summerville 24 1,74m West Ham United €30.0m
LW Noa Lang 26 1,73m Galatasaray €22.0m
RW Quinten Timber 24 1,79m Olympique Marseille €25.0m
SS Memphis Depay 32 1,78m Sport Club Corinthians Paulista €7.0m
CF Donyell Malen 27 1,76m AS Roma €45.0m
CF Brian Brobbey 24 1,80m Sunderland AFC €25.0m
CF Wout Weghorst 33 1,97m Ajax Amsterdam €2.0m