Match analysis
Netherlands vs Japan 
Match forecast and score distribution for Match 11, Group F, generated from the current simulator ratings.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: Netherlands 2-2 Japan ยท Final. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Goal bands
Total goals distribution
0 10.4%
1 23.6%
2 26.5%
3 20.1%
4 11.5%
5+ 8.0%
Goal thresholds
Total-goal thresholds
Total 0.5 At least 89.6% Below 10.4%
Total 1.5 At least 66.0% Below 34.0%
Total 2.5 At least 39.6% Below 60.4%
Total 3.5 At least 19.5% Below 80.5%
Total 4.5 At least 8.0% Below 92.1%
Team goals
Netherlands goal thresholds
Netherlands 0.5 At least 73.0% Below 27.0%
Netherlands 1.5 At least 37.8% Below 62.3%
Netherlands 2.5 At least 14.6% Below 85.4%
Netherlands 3.5 At least 4.5% Below 95.5%
Netherlands 4.5 At least 1.2% Below 98.8%
Team goals
Japan goal thresholds
Japan 0.5 At least 61.7% Below 38.3%
Japan 1.5 At least 24.6% Below 75.4%
Japan 2.5 At least 7.3% Below 92.7%
Japan 3.5 At least 1.7% Below 98.3%
Japan 4.5 At least 0.3% Below 99.7%
Scoring frequency
Both teams scoring
Both teams score 45.1%
Netherlands clean sheet 38.3%
Japan clean sheet 27.0%
Common scorelines
Top exact scores
1 Netherlands 1-0 Japan 13.4%
2 Netherlands 1-1 Japan 13.1%
3 Netherlands 0-0 Japan 10.4%
4 Netherlands 0-1 Japan 10.2%
5 Netherlands 2-0 Japan 8.9%
6 Netherlands 2-1 Japan 8.5%
7 Netherlands 1-2 Japan 6.3%
8 Netherlands 0-2 Japan 4.5%
9 Netherlands 2-2 Japan 4.1%
10 Netherlands 3-0 Japan 3.9%
Guide
What this simulation preview shows
This page is a direct match simulation reference for one fixture. It uses the simulator's current team ratings and venue context to estimate score patterns, not a full tournament-path run.
Score distribution
How to read the numbers
Average score is the mean goals per team across all runs. Total-goal bands group matches by combined goals, both-team scoring frequency shows how often each side scores at least once, and common scorelines show the most frequent exact results in the sample.
Model note
Simulation reference, not certainty
A real match can land far away from the most common model outcomes. Use these outputs as a way to understand the range of plausible scorelines, not as a guarantee or betting advice.