Match analysis
Sweden vs Tunisia 
Match forecast and score distribution for Match 12, Group F, generated from the current simulator ratings.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: Sweden 5-1 Tunisia ยท Final. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Goal bands
Total goals distribution
0 5.0%
1 14.6%
2 21.9%
3 22.4%
4 16.6%
5+ 19.4%
Goal thresholds
Total-goal thresholds
Total 0.5 At least 95.0% Below 5.0%
Total 1.5 At least 80.4% Below 19.6%
Total 2.5 At least 58.5% Below 41.6%
Total 3.5 At least 36.0% Below 64.0%
Total 4.5 At least 19.4% Below 80.6%
Team goals
Sweden goal thresholds
Sweden 0.5 At least 88.0% Below 12.0%
Sweden 1.5 At least 63.0% Below 37.1%
Sweden 2.5 At least 36.6% Below 63.5%
Sweden 3.5 At least 17.0% Below 83.0%
Sweden 4.5 At least 7.2% Below 92.8%
Team goals
Tunisia goal thresholds
Tunisia 0.5 At least 59.0% Below 41.0%
Tunisia 1.5 At least 22.4% Below 77.6%
Tunisia 2.5 At least 6.1% Below 93.9%
Tunisia 3.5 At least 1.4% Below 98.7%
Tunisia 4.5 At least 0.2% Below 99.8%
Scoring frequency
Both teams scoring
Both teams score 52.0%
Sweden clean sheet 41.0%
Tunisia clean sheet 12.0%
Common scorelines
Top exact scores
1 Sweden 2-0 Tunisia 10.8%
2 Sweden 1-0 Tunisia 10.4%
3 Sweden 2-1 Tunisia 9.8%
4 Sweden 1-1 Tunisia 9.2%
5 Sweden 3-0 Tunisia 8.0%
6 Sweden 3-1 Tunisia 7.2%
7 Sweden 0-0 Tunisia 5.0%
8 Sweden 2-2 Tunisia 4.3%
9 Sweden 0-1 Tunisia 4.3%
10 Sweden 1-2 Tunisia 4.1%
Guide
What this simulation preview shows
This page is a direct match simulation reference for one fixture. It uses the simulator's current team ratings and venue context to estimate score patterns, not a full tournament-path run.
Score distribution
How to read the numbers
Average score is the mean goals per team across all runs. Total-goal bands group matches by combined goals, both-team scoring frequency shows how often each side scores at least once, and common scorelines show the most frequent exact results in the sample.
Model note
Simulation reference, not certainty
A real match can land far away from the most common model outcomes. Use these outputs as a way to understand the range of plausible scorelines, not as a guarantee or betting advice.