Group
Finish probabilities
1st 61.0%
2nd 26.8%
3rd qualified 7.8%
3rd not qualified 1.7%
4th 2.6%
Group K
Portugal
This profile is based on 100,000 simulations using the current WC26 simulator engine. The numbers are a model snapshot, not a guarantee. Team ratings, squads and injury updates may change over time.
Champion 7.9%
Group qualification 95.7%
Squad value €957.0m
Avg age 28.0
Avg height 1.822m
Manager Roberto Martínez
Tournament
Stage reach probabilities
R32 95.7%
R16 65.2%
QF 43.7%
SF 26.0%
Final 14.7%
Champion 7.9%
Conditional path
Path by group finish
| Finish | Sample | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 61.0% | 100.0% | 71.3% | 51.9% | 30.0% | 16.8% | 9.0% |
| 2nd | 26.8% | 100.0% | 64.5% | 33.4% | 22.5% | 12.9% | 6.9% |
| 3rd | 9.5% | 82.6% | 46.0% | 32.0% | 17.9% | 10.7% | 5.9% |
Overall opponent pool
Most common opponents by round
If reached shows the opponent split among this team's matches in that round. All sims shows how often the matchup happens across the full 100,000-simulation snapshot.
R32
Croatia If reached: 24.4% All sims: 23.3% Win rate: 62.7% 
Ghana If reached: 23.8% All sims: 22.7% Win rate: 78.6% 
England If reached: 17.3% All sims: 16.6% Win rate: 47.9% 
Panama If reached: 10.8% All sims: 10.3% Win rate: 89.4% 
Senegal If reached: 6.2% All sims: 6.0% Win rate: 70.5% 
Norway If reached: 4.0% All sims: 3.9% Win rate: 61.2% 
Ivory Coast If reached: 2.7% All sims: 2.6% Win rate: 69.3% 
Ecuador If reached: 2.5% All sims: 2.4% Win rate: 67.5% 
France If reached: 1.7% All sims: 1.6% Win rate: 42.1% 
Iraq If reached: 1.2% All sims: 1.1% Win rate: 91.5% 
Germany If reached: 1.2% All sims: 1.1% Win rate: 54.4% 
Paraguay If reached: 0.8% All sims: 0.8% Win rate: 78.7% 
Curaçao If reached: 0.8% All sims: 0.8% Win rate: 92.3% 
Australia If reached: 0.6% All sims: 0.6% Win rate: 86.5% 
USA If reached: 0.6% All sims: 0.5% Win rate: 67.2% 
Türkiye If reached: 0.5% All sims: 0.5% Win rate: 71.6% 
Algeria If reached: 0.4% All sims: 0.4% Win rate: 76.9% 
Austria If reached: 0.3% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 67.8% 
Jordan If reached: 0.1% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 94.4% 
Argentina If reached: 0.1% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 55.4% R16
Switzerland If reached: 21.5% All sims: 14.0% Win rate: 66.3% 
Spain If reached: 15.0% All sims: 9.8% Win rate: 41.0% 
Canada If reached: 10.1% All sims: 6.6% Win rate: 76.2% Austria If reached: 8.2% All sims: 5.3% Win rate: 70.1% Algeria If reached: 7.3% All sims: 4.7% Win rate: 77.4% 
Bosnia-Herz. If reached: 5.9% All sims: 3.8% Win rate: 80.6% Argentina If reached: 4.7% All sims: 3.0% Win rate: 49.1% 
Egypt If reached: 4.0% All sims: 2.6% Win rate: 80.3% 
Iran If reached: 3.8% All sims: 2.4% Win rate: 89.0% 
Uruguay If reached: 3.5% All sims: 2.3% Win rate: 63.8% 
Belgium If reached: 2.1% All sims: 1.4% Win rate: 60.1% 
New Zealand If reached: 1.9% All sims: 1.3% Win rate: 89.6% 
Mexico If reached: 1.6% All sims: 1.0% Win rate: 66.7% Ecuador If reached: 1.5% All sims: 1.0% Win rate: 64.8% Ivory Coast If reached: 1.5% All sims: 1.0% Win rate: 70.8% 
South Korea If reached: 1.1% All sims: 0.7% Win rate: 72.1% 
Qatar If reached: 0.9% All sims: 0.6% Win rate: 91.0% Germany If reached: 0.9% All sims: 0.6% Win rate: 54.7% Jordan If reached: 0.7% All sims: 0.5% Win rate: 93.0% Senegal If reached: 0.6% All sims: 0.4% Win rate: 70.1% 
Czechia If reached: 0.6% All sims: 0.4% Win rate: 73.3% Norway If reached: 0.5% All sims: 0.4% Win rate: 57.9% France If reached: 0.3% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 44.3% 
Saudi Arabia If reached: 0.3% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 89.6% 
Scotland If reached: 0.2% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 84.5% 
Morocco If reached: 0.2% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 67.3% 
Cape Verde If reached: 0.2% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 90.9% Curaçao If reached: 0.2% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 95.4% 
Japan If reached: 0.1% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 63.5% 
Brazil If reached: 0.1% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 53.6% 
South Africa If reached: 0.1% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 80.0% 
Sweden If reached: 0.1% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 75.3% Iraq If reached: 0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 86.1% 
Haiti If reached: 0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 87.2% 
Netherlands If reached: 0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 61.2% 
Tunisia If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 96.2% QF
Argentina If reached: 26.6% All sims: 11.6% Win rate: 47.4% Belgium If reached: 10.9% All sims: 4.7% Win rate: 60.1% Uruguay If reached: 10.5% All sims: 4.6% Win rate: 63.5% USA If reached: 8.1% All sims: 3.5% Win rate: 67.1% Türkiye If reached: 8.1% All sims: 3.5% Win rate: 65.0% Spain If reached: 8.0% All sims: 3.5% Win rate: 40.2% Egypt If reached: 4.3% All sims: 1.9% Win rate: 80.4% Austria If reached: 3.1% All sims: 1.4% Win rate: 67.9% Paraguay If reached: 2.9% All sims: 1.3% Win rate: 79.7% Brazil If reached: 1.8% All sims: 0.8% Win rate: 48.0% Algeria If reached: 1.5% All sims: 0.7% Win rate: 79.4% Norway If reached: 1.2% All sims: 0.5% Win rate: 61.6% France If reached: 1.1% All sims: 0.5% Win rate: 41.8% Australia If reached: 0.9% All sims: 0.4% Win rate: 86.4% Mexico If reached: 0.8% All sims: 0.4% Win rate: 68.6% Iran If reached: 0.8% All sims: 0.4% Win rate: 87.5% South Korea If reached: 0.8% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 73.6% Switzerland If reached: 0.8% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 70.1% Germany If reached: 0.8% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 54.1% Czechia If reached: 0.7% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 74.4% Senegal If reached: 0.7% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 70.2% Ecuador If reached: 0.6% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 64.8% Canada If reached: 0.6% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 81.6% Netherlands If reached: 0.6% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 50.4% Bosnia-Herz. If reached: 0.6% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 80.5% Ivory Coast If reached: 0.5% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 71.6% Morocco If reached: 0.4% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 60.7% Japan If reached: 0.4% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 63.9% Saudi Arabia If reached: 0.4% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 89.2% Sweden If reached: 0.3% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 72.7% Cape Verde If reached: 0.3% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 84.9% New Zealand If reached: 0.3% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 91.8% South Africa If reached: 0.2% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 89.4% Qatar If reached: 0.1% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 83.0% Scotland If reached: 0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 77.4% Jordan If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Tunisia If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Curaçao If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Iraq If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Haiti If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% SF
England If reached: 14.2% All sims: 3.7% Win rate: 48.0% Brazil If reached: 14.0% All sims: 3.6% Win rate: 48.2% France If reached: 12.2% All sims: 3.2% Win rate: 43.1% Germany If reached: 7.7% All sims: 2.0% Win rate: 54.2% Norway If reached: 6.4% All sims: 1.7% Win rate: 60.3% Netherlands If reached: 6.3% All sims: 1.6% Win rate: 57.1% Morocco If reached: 3.6% All sims: 0.9% Win rate: 64.4% Mexico If reached: 3.5% All sims: 0.9% Win rate: 66.2% Ecuador If reached: 3.4% All sims: 0.9% Win rate: 66.8% Croatia If reached: 3.2% All sims: 0.8% Win rate: 63.3% Ivory Coast If reached: 2.9% All sims: 0.7% Win rate: 68.3% Japan If reached: 2.8% All sims: 0.7% Win rate: 68.2% Senegal If reached: 2.6% All sims: 0.7% Win rate: 70.8% Sweden If reached: 1.9% All sims: 0.5% Win rate: 69.3% South Korea If reached: 1.9% All sims: 0.5% Win rate: 72.0% 
Colombia If reached: 1.9% All sims: 0.5% Win rate: 61.3% Argentina If reached: 1.9% All sims: 0.5% Win rate: 49.4% Uruguay If reached: 1.1% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 59.3% Switzerland If reached: 1.1% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 66.8% Spain If reached: 1.0% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 42.5% Scotland If reached: 0.9% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 76.8% Czechia If reached: 0.9% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 76.3% USA If reached: 0.6% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 70.2% Türkiye If reached: 0.6% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 66.3% Canada If reached: 0.5% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 76.6% 
DR Congo If reached: 0.5% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 82.7% Belgium If reached: 0.3% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 59.0% Ghana If reached: 0.3% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 83.5% Austria If reached: 0.3% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 77.0% Algeria If reached: 0.2% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 84.9% Paraguay If reached: 0.2% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 82.5% Bosnia-Herz. If reached: 0.2% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 88.7% South Africa If reached: 0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 80.0% Tunisia If reached: 0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 88.2% Saudi Arabia If reached: 0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 83.3% Australia If reached: 0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 73.7% Egypt If reached: 0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 74.4% Haiti If reached: 0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 89.5% 
Uzbekistan If reached: 0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Panama If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Cape Verde If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 87.5% Qatar If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Iran If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 87.5% Curaçao If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Iraq If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Jordan If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% New Zealand If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Final
Spain If reached: 17.3% All sims: 2.5% Win rate: 42.3% France If reached: 14.5% All sims: 2.1% Win rate: 42.9% England If reached: 7.1% All sims: 1.0% Win rate: 48.8% Argentina If reached: 6.7% All sims: 1.0% Win rate: 43.5% Brazil If reached: 6.0% All sims: 0.9% Win rate: 50.7% Germany If reached: 5.9% All sims: 0.9% Win rate: 53.1% Netherlands If reached: 5.3% All sims: 0.8% Win rate: 54.5% Belgium If reached: 5.2% All sims: 0.8% Win rate: 57.7% Colombia If reached: 3.3% All sims: 0.5% Win rate: 65.6% Norway If reached: 3.1% All sims: 0.5% Win rate: 60.9% Croatia If reached: 2.4% All sims: 0.4% Win rate: 66.7% Türkiye If reached: 2.1% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 67.3% Morocco If reached: 2.0% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 64.9% Uruguay If reached: 1.9% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 62.3% Mexico If reached: 1.9% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 65.0% Switzerland If reached: 1.9% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 70.5% USA If reached: 1.9% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 66.2% Japan If reached: 1.7% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 67.5% Ecuador If reached: 1.2% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 63.8% South Korea If reached: 1.1% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 67.5% Senegal If reached: 1.0% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 73.6% Austria If reached: 1.0% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 68.8% Sweden If reached: 0.9% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 71.4% Ivory Coast If reached: 0.9% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 72.3% Canada If reached: 0.7% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 78.5% Czechia If reached: 0.5% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 74.3% Paraguay If reached: 0.5% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 76.3% Algeria If reached: 0.4% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 78.7% Scotland If reached: 0.4% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 72.7% Bosnia-Herz. If reached: 0.3% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 83.3% Egypt If reached: 0.3% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 69.2% Ghana If reached: 0.2% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 81.8% DR Congo If reached: 0.2% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 71.4% Qatar If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Cape Verde If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Iran If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Australia If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 71.4% South Africa If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Uzbekistan If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Haiti If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 0.0% Saudi Arabia If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 0.0% Iraq If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Panama If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Finish 1st
Portugal opponent pool if finishing 1st
For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.
R32
Ghana If reached: 26.2% Path sims: 26.2% Win rate: 78.7% Croatia If reached: 16.0% Path sims: 16.0% Win rate: 62.8% Panama If reached: 13.1% Path sims: 13.1% Win rate: 89.4% Senegal If reached: 9.8% Path sims: 9.8% Win rate: 70.5% England If reached: 7.5% Path sims: 7.5% Win rate: 47.2% Norway If reached: 6.3% Path sims: 6.3% Win rate: 61.2% Ivory Coast If reached: 4.3% Path sims: 4.3% Win rate: 69.3% Ecuador If reached: 3.9% Path sims: 3.9% Win rate: 67.5% France If reached: 2.7% Path sims: 2.7% Win rate: 42.1% Iraq If reached: 1.8% Path sims: 1.8% Win rate: 91.5% Germany If reached: 1.8% Path sims: 1.8% Win rate: 54.4% Paraguay If reached: 1.3% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 78.7% Curaçao If reached: 1.2% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 92.3% Australia If reached: 1.0% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 86.5% USA If reached: 0.9% Path sims: 0.9% Win rate: 67.2% Türkiye If reached: 0.8% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 71.6% Algeria If reached: 0.7% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 76.9% Austria If reached: 0.5% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 67.8% Jordan If reached: 0.2% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 94.4% Argentina If reached: 0.2% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 55.4% R16
Switzerland If reached: 32.3% Path sims: 23.0% Win rate: 66.3% Canada If reached: 15.1% Path sims: 10.7% Win rate: 76.2% Bosnia-Herz. If reached: 8.8% Path sims: 6.3% Win rate: 80.6% Algeria If reached: 8.1% Path sims: 5.8% Win rate: 77.0% Austria If reached: 7.1% Path sims: 5.1% Win rate: 68.9% Egypt If reached: 6.0% Path sims: 4.3% Win rate: 80.3% Iran If reached: 5.6% Path sims: 4.0% Win rate: 89.0% Belgium If reached: 3.1% Path sims: 2.2% Win rate: 60.1% New Zealand If reached: 2.9% Path sims: 2.0% Win rate: 89.6% Argentina If reached: 2.7% Path sims: 1.9% Win rate: 48.5% Qatar If reached: 1.4% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 91.0% Ecuador If reached: 1.3% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 66.2% Ivory Coast If reached: 1.3% Path sims: 0.9% Win rate: 70.7% Jordan If reached: 1.0% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 93.3% Germany If reached: 0.8% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 53.3% Senegal If reached: 0.8% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 69.3% Norway If reached: 0.7% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 57.5% France If reached: 0.3% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 43.1% Japan If reached: 0.2% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 62.1% Curaçao If reached: 0.2% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Sweden If reached: 0.2% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 77.6% Iraq If reached: 0.1% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 87.9% Netherlands If reached: 0.1% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 62.2% Tunisia If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 95.8% QF
Argentina If reached: 36.4% Path sims: 18.9% Win rate: 47.4% Uruguay If reached: 14.3% Path sims: 7.4% Win rate: 63.6% Spain If reached: 11.0% Path sims: 5.7% Win rate: 40.2% Türkiye If reached: 7.8% Path sims: 4.0% Win rate: 65.5% USA If reached: 7.5% Path sims: 3.9% Win rate: 66.8% Belgium If reached: 6.4% Path sims: 3.3% Win rate: 60.6% Egypt If reached: 4.7% Path sims: 2.4% Win rate: 80.4% Austria If reached: 4.0% Path sims: 2.1% Win rate: 68.3% Paraguay If reached: 3.2% Path sims: 1.7% Win rate: 78.7% Algeria If reached: 1.6% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 79.1% Australia If reached: 1.1% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 86.0% Iran If reached: 1.0% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 87.7% Saudi Arabia If reached: 0.4% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 89.6% Cape Verde If reached: 0.3% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 84.4% New Zealand If reached: 0.3% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 90.8% Jordan If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% SF
England If reached: 20.0% Path sims: 6.0% Win rate: 47.9% Brazil If reached: 17.3% Path sims: 5.2% Win rate: 48.4% France If reached: 9.3% Path sims: 2.8% Win rate: 41.7% Norway If reached: 7.2% Path sims: 2.2% Win rate: 60.7% Germany If reached: 6.8% Path sims: 2.0% Win rate: 55.0% Netherlands If reached: 4.7% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 58.2% Croatia If reached: 4.3% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 63.8% Mexico If reached: 3.9% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 65.7% Ecuador If reached: 3.9% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 66.0% Ivory Coast If reached: 3.5% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 69.2% Morocco If reached: 3.2% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 64.0% Senegal If reached: 3.0% Path sims: 0.9% Win rate: 71.3% Japan If reached: 2.6% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 68.4% South Korea If reached: 1.9% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 73.2% Colombia If reached: 1.9% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 60.6% Sweden If reached: 1.7% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 70.5% Czechia If reached: 0.9% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 76.5% Uruguay If reached: 0.8% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 64.6% Spain If reached: 0.7% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 37.0% Scotland If reached: 0.7% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 78.9% DR Congo If reached: 0.6% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 83.3% Ghana If reached: 0.3% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 81.7% Argentina If reached: 0.2% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 32.4% Algeria If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 76.5% Tunisia If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 90.0% Saudi Arabia If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 81.0% Austria If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 72.0% Uzbekistan If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Panama If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Haiti If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 87.5% Cape Verde If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% South Africa If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 80.0% Curaçao If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Iraq If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Jordan If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Final
Spain If reached: 20.5% Path sims: 3.4% Win rate: 42.7% France If reached: 16.7% Path sims: 2.8% Win rate: 42.7% Netherlands If reached: 6.5% Path sims: 1.1% Win rate: 53.0% Belgium If reached: 6.2% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 58.0% Germany If reached: 6.2% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 51.8% Brazil If reached: 4.6% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 52.6% England If reached: 4.6% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 48.9% Argentina If reached: 3.7% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 45.6% Colombia If reached: 2.9% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 65.2% Norway If reached: 2.8% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 63.3% Türkiye If reached: 2.4% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 65.8% Croatia If reached: 2.4% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 64.9% Morocco If reached: 2.2% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 66.8% USA If reached: 2.1% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 67.1% Mexico If reached: 2.0% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 66.3% Japan If reached: 1.9% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 65.1% Switzerland If reached: 1.6% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 70.2% Uruguay If reached: 1.4% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 61.4% South Korea If reached: 1.1% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 61.2% Sweden If reached: 1.1% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 75.0% Austria If reached: 1.0% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 70.2% Ecuador If reached: 1.0% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 62.6% Canada If reached: 0.9% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 78.3% Ivory Coast If reached: 0.7% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 75.0% Senegal If reached: 0.7% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 75.0% Czechia If reached: 0.6% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 70.7% Paraguay If reached: 0.5% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 77.8% Scotland If reached: 0.5% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 74.5% Algeria If reached: 0.4% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 80.5% Bosnia-Herz. If reached: 0.3% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 81.8% Egypt If reached: 0.2% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 75.0% Ghana If reached: 0.2% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 81.0% DR Congo If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 87.5% Qatar If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Cape Verde If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Australia If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 75.0% South Africa If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Iran If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Saudi Arabia If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 0.0% Iraq If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Finish 2nd
Portugal opponent pool if finishing 2nd
For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.
R32
Croatia If reached: 42.5% Path sims: 42.5% Win rate: 62.5% England If reached: 26.5% Path sims: 26.5% Win rate: 48.2% Ghana If reached: 22.9% Path sims: 22.9% Win rate: 78.5% Panama If reached: 8.1% Path sims: 8.1% Win rate: 89.6% R16
Spain If reached: 56.2% Path sims: 36.3% Win rate: 41.0% Austria If reached: 12.8% Path sims: 8.2% Win rate: 71.8% Uruguay If reached: 12.3% Path sims: 8.0% Win rate: 63.9% Argentina If reached: 10.7% Path sims: 6.9% Win rate: 49.4% Algeria If reached: 6.9% Path sims: 4.5% Win rate: 78.6% Saudi Arabia If reached: 0.4% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 87.3% Jordan If reached: 0.3% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 91.2% Cape Verde If reached: 0.3% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 89.5% QF
Belgium If reached: 30.2% Path sims: 10.1% Win rate: 59.6% USA If reached: 12.8% Path sims: 4.3% Win rate: 67.8% Türkiye If reached: 12.0% Path sims: 4.0% Win rate: 64.0% Egypt If reached: 4.3% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 80.4% Mexico If reached: 4.0% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 68.6% South Korea If reached: 3.9% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 73.6% Switzerland If reached: 3.7% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 70.1% Czechia If reached: 3.3% Path sims: 1.1% Win rate: 74.4% Canada If reached: 3.1% Path sims: 1.1% Win rate: 81.6% Bosnia-Herz. If reached: 3.0% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 80.5% Paraguay If reached: 2.9% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 83.7% Norway If reached: 1.9% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 65.9% Senegal If reached: 1.8% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 71.8% Algeria If reached: 1.5% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 80.6% France If reached: 1.4% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 41.4% Austria If reached: 1.3% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 63.9% Argentina If reached: 1.1% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 50.0% Ecuador If reached: 0.9% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 64.2% South Africa If reached: 0.9% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 89.4% Australia If reached: 0.7% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 88.7% Germany If reached: 0.7% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 51.5% Uruguay If reached: 0.7% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 57.6% Ivory Coast If reached: 0.7% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 72.6% Iran If reached: 0.7% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 86.6% Qatar If reached: 0.6% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 83.0% Spain If reached: 0.5% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 36.4% Saudi Arabia If reached: 0.3% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 87.0% Cape Verde If reached: 0.2% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 88.2% Japan If reached: 0.2% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 66.7% Sweden If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 70.0% New Zealand If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Jordan If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Netherlands If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 30.0% Iraq If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Tunisia If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Curaçao If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% SF
France If reached: 23.9% Path sims: 5.4% Win rate: 44.7% Netherlands If reached: 12.9% Path sims: 2.9% Win rate: 55.8% Germany If reached: 12.5% Path sims: 2.8% Win rate: 53.0% Brazil If reached: 7.7% Path sims: 1.7% Win rate: 47.1% Morocco If reached: 5.7% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 65.0% Norway If reached: 5.2% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 59.0% Japan If reached: 4.2% Path sims: 0.9% Win rate: 67.9% Mexico If reached: 3.4% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 68.0% Sweden If reached: 3.2% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 67.5% Switzerland If reached: 2.8% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 69.0% South Korea If reached: 2.6% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 69.2% Ecuador If reached: 2.3% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 69.5% Scotland If reached: 1.8% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 74.3% Senegal If reached: 1.7% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 67.0% Ivory Coast If reached: 1.7% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 61.9% Türkiye If reached: 1.5% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 69.6% Canada If reached: 1.5% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 78.3% USA If reached: 1.3% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 79.5% Czechia If reached: 1.3% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 75.6% Bosnia-Herz. If reached: 0.7% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 88.9% Paraguay If reached: 0.6% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 81.6% Australia If reached: 0.2% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 73.3% South Africa If reached: 0.2% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 80.0% Uruguay If reached: 0.2% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 54.5% Belgium If reached: 0.2% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 60.0% Haiti If reached: 0.2% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 90.9% Qatar If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Tunisia If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 85.7% Spain If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 20.0% Cape Verde If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Iran If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Egypt If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Saudi Arabia If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Final
Argentina If reached: 16.4% Path sims: 2.1% Win rate: 41.5% England If reached: 14.7% Path sims: 1.9% Win rate: 48.5% Brazil If reached: 10.9% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 47.5% France If reached: 7.6% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 42.6% Spain If reached: 7.2% Path sims: 0.9% Win rate: 40.2% Colombia If reached: 5.2% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 66.5% Germany If reached: 4.6% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 57.1% Norway If reached: 3.7% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 58.3% Uruguay If reached: 3.2% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 64.0% Switzerland If reached: 2.7% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 71.6% Croatia If reached: 2.3% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 70.0% Netherlands If reached: 2.1% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 55.6% Belgium If reached: 2.0% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 60.0% Senegal If reached: 1.8% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 74.6% Mexico If reached: 1.8% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 59.7% Ecuador If reached: 1.8% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 61.9% Morocco If reached: 1.4% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 54.2% USA If reached: 1.4% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 64.6% Ivory Coast If reached: 1.4% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 73.5% Türkiye If reached: 1.3% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 68.2% South Korea If reached: 1.1% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 83.8% Japan If reached: 1.1% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 76.3% Austria If reached: 0.8% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 63.0% Paraguay If reached: 0.5% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 72.2% Sweden If reached: 0.5% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 61.1% DR Congo If reached: 0.5% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 68.4% Algeria If reached: 0.3% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 75.0% Egypt If reached: 0.3% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 66.7% Scotland If reached: 0.3% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Ghana If reached: 0.3% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 77.8% Canada If reached: 0.3% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 66.7% Bosnia-Herz. If reached: 0.2% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 83.3% Australia If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Uzbekistan If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Czechia If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Iran If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Haiti If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 0.0% Saudi Arabia If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 0.0% Panama If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Finish 3rd
Portugal opponent pool if finishing 3rd
For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.
R32
England If reached: 62.2% Path sims: 51.3% Win rate: 48.2% Croatia If reached: 28.0% Path sims: 23.1% Win rate: 63.4% Ghana If reached: 8.0% Path sims: 6.6% Win rate: 79.1% Panama If reached: 1.9% Path sims: 1.5% Win rate: 91.8% R16
Mexico If reached: 23.9% Path sims: 11.0% Win rate: 66.7% South Korea If reached: 15.8% Path sims: 7.3% Win rate: 72.1% Ivory Coast If reached: 9.9% Path sims: 4.6% Win rate: 70.9% Czechia If reached: 9.7% Path sims: 4.5% Win rate: 73.3% Ecuador If reached: 9.2% Path sims: 4.2% Win rate: 62.7% Germany If reached: 5.5% Path sims: 2.6% Win rate: 56.6% Scotland If reached: 3.7% Path sims: 1.7% Win rate: 84.5% Morocco If reached: 3.5% Path sims: 1.6% Win rate: 67.3% Uruguay If reached: 3.0% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 63.2% Saudi Arabia If reached: 2.7% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 90.8% Cape Verde If reached: 2.2% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 91.8% Brazil If reached: 1.9% Path sims: 0.9% Win rate: 53.6% Norway If reached: 1.6% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 59.4% South Africa If reached: 1.6% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 80.0% Senegal If reached: 1.4% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 74.6% Spain If reached: 1.1% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 45.7% Haiti If reached: 1.1% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 87.2% Curaçao If reached: 0.9% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 87.5% France If reached: 0.5% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 52.2% Japan If reached: 0.2% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 77.8% Sweden If reached: 0.2% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 60.0% Netherlands If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Iraq If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 66.7% Tunisia If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% QF
Brazil If reached: 25.9% Path sims: 8.3% Win rate: 48.0% Norway If reached: 11.8% Path sims: 3.8% Win rate: 59.7% France If reached: 11.7% Path sims: 3.7% Win rate: 42.0% Germany If reached: 9.1% Path sims: 2.9% Win rate: 54.7% Netherlands If reached: 8.6% Path sims: 2.7% Win rate: 51.2% Ecuador If reached: 6.0% Path sims: 1.9% Win rate: 65.0% Morocco If reached: 5.9% Path sims: 1.9% Win rate: 60.7% Japan If reached: 5.8% Path sims: 1.9% Win rate: 63.6% Ivory Coast If reached: 5.0% Path sims: 1.6% Win rate: 71.2% Senegal If reached: 4.6% Path sims: 1.5% Win rate: 68.3% Sweden If reached: 4.4% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 72.9% Scotland If reached: 1.0% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 77.4% Tunisia If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Haiti If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Iraq If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Curaçao If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% SF
Argentina If reached: 26.8% Path sims: 4.8% Win rate: 50.7% Colombia If reached: 9.5% Path sims: 1.7% Win rate: 62.7% Uruguay If reached: 8.4% Path sims: 1.5% Win rate: 54.2% Spain If reached: 7.2% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 49.2% Switzerland If reached: 6.4% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 63.3% Türkiye If reached: 4.4% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 62.2% USA If reached: 4.3% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 60.3% Belgium If reached: 4.3% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 58.9% Austria If reached: 3.7% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 79.0% England If reached: 2.7% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 53.3% Croatia If reached: 2.7% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 53.3% Norway If reached: 2.2% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 56.8% Egypt If reached: 2.2% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 75.7% Canada If reached: 2.1% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 72.2% Algeria If reached: 2.1% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 88.9% France If reached: 2.0% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 47.1% DR Congo If reached: 1.5% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 80.0% Paraguay If reached: 1.5% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 84.0% Ghana If reached: 1.5% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 88.0% Senegal If reached: 1.2% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 76.2% Germany If reached: 0.8% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 42.9% Ecuador If reached: 0.7% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 83.3% Bosnia-Herz. If reached: 0.5% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 87.5% Ivory Coast If reached: 0.4% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 83.3% Iran If reached: 0.3% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 80.0% Australia If reached: 0.2% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 75.0% Uzbekistan If reached: 0.2% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Panama If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Japan If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Saudi Arabia If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% New Zealand If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Final
Spain If reached: 19.7% Path sims: 2.1% Win rate: 40.7% France If reached: 16.2% Path sims: 1.7% Win rate: 45.7% Germany If reached: 7.2% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 54.8% Belgium If reached: 6.6% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 52.2% England If reached: 5.8% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 49.2% Netherlands If reached: 5.1% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 71.2% Brazil If reached: 4.0% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 60.0% Argentina If reached: 3.9% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 51.3% Norway If reached: 3.4% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 50.0% Croatia If reached: 2.9% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 72.4% Türkiye If reached: 2.2% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 81.8% USA If reached: 2.0% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 60.0% Morocco If reached: 1.9% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 68.4% Switzerland If reached: 1.8% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 66.7% Uruguay If reached: 1.7% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 58.8% Japan If reached: 1.6% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 75.0% Ecuador If reached: 1.5% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 80.0% Sweden If reached: 1.4% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 57.1% Senegal If reached: 1.3% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 61.5% South Korea If reached: 1.3% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 76.9% Mexico If reached: 1.3% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 69.2% Colombia If reached: 1.1% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 63.6% Austria If reached: 1.0% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 70.0% Czechia If reached: 0.9% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 88.9% Ivory Coast If reached: 0.9% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 44.4% Algeria If reached: 0.8% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 75.0% Canada If reached: 0.6% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Scotland If reached: 0.5% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Paraguay If reached: 0.4% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 75.0% Ghana If reached: 0.3% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Egypt If reached: 0.3% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 33.3% Bosnia-Herz. If reached: 0.3% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% South Africa If reached: 0.2% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Australia If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% DR Congo If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 0.0% Uzbekistan If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Squad
Current squad
| Pos | Player | Age | Height | Club | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GK | Diogo Costa | 26 | 1,87m | FC Porto | €40.0m |
| GK | Rui Silva | 32 | 1,91m | Sporting CP | €7.0m |
| GK | José Sá | 33 | 1,92m | Wolverhampton Wanderers | €5.0m |
| CB | Rúben Dias | 29 | 1,87m | Manchester City | €60.0m |
| CB | Gonçalo Inácio | 24 | 1,86m | Sporting CP | €40.0m |
| CB | Tomás Araújo | 24 | 1,87m | SL Benfica | €30.0m |
| CB | Renato Veiga | 22 | 1,90m | Villarreal CF | €25.0m |
| LB | Nuno Mendes | 23 | 1,80m | Paris Saint-Germain | €75.0m |
| RB | Matheus Nunes | 27 | 1,83m | Manchester City | €45.0m |
| RB | Diogo Dalot | 27 | 1,83m | Manchester United | €30.0m |
| RB | João Cancelo | 32 | 1,82m | FC Barcelona | €9.0m |
| RB | Nélson Semedo | 32 | 1,77m | Fenerbahce | €6.0m |
| DM | Vitinha | 26 | 1,72m | Paris Saint-Germain | €110.0m |
| DM | Rúben Neves | 29 | 1,80m | Al-Hilal SFC | €25.0m |
| DM | Samú Costa | 25 | 1,85m | RCD Mallorca | €15.0m |
| CM | João Neves | 21 | 1,74m | Paris Saint-Germain | €110.0m |
| AM | Bruno Fernandes | 31 | 1,79m | Manchester United | €40.0m |
| AM | Francisco Trincão | 26 | 1,84m | Sporting CP | €40.0m |
| AM | Bernardo Silva | 31 | 1,73m | Manchester City | €27.0m |
| LW | Rafael Leão | 27 | 1,88m | AC Milan | €50.0m |
| LW | Gonçalo Guedes | 29 | 1,79m | Real Sociedad | €6.0m |
| RW | Pedro Neto | 26 | 1,74m | Chelsea FC | €60.0m |
| RW | Francisco Conceição | 23 | 1,70m | Juventus FC | €30.0m |
| SS | João Félix | 26 | 1,81m | Al-Nassr FC | €25.0m |
| CF | Gonçalo Ramos | 24 | 1,85m | Paris Saint-Germain | €35.0m |
| CF | Cristiano Ronaldo | 41 | 1,88m | Al-Nassr FC | €12.0m |