Group
Finish probabilities
1st 0%
2nd 100.0%
3rd place 0% Qualified from 3rd 0% Eliminated in 3rd 0%
4th 0%
Group K
Portugal
A team in permanent tension between its system and its star. The squad is genuinely talented beyond Ronaldo: Félix, Leão, and Vitinha offer real quality. Ronaldo at 41 is a situation that requires management as much as selection. The tournament history is underachieving relative to the talent. They will be very good and might fall short anyway.
This profile summarizes Portugal's World Cup 2026 simulation path from the latest current-state snapshot: group outlook, finish distribution, possible knockout routes, opponent pools, squad context, and title chances.
Champion 0%
Group qualification 100%
Squad market €957.0m
Avg age 28.0
Avg height 1.822m
Manager Roberto Martínez
Saved forecast
Forecast as of Updated 2026-07-15 10:47 UTC, based on 10k current-state simulations. Tournament-wide official results included at that time stay fixed. These are saved model forecasts, not the team's actual final finish.
Tournament-wide result cutoff: France 0-2 Spain
Guide
How to read this team profile
Group finish and stage reach values are model outputs from the latest current-state team profile snapshot. Path sections show how Portugal's route changes by group finish, while opponent pools summarize the teams most often appearing in each round.
Other forecast pages may show a different saved date. The interactive replay simulator is separate: changing Team Strength settings creates alternative scenarios without changing this saved forecast.
Tournament
Stage reach probabilities
R32 100%
R16 100%
QF 0%
SF 0%
Final 0%
Champion 0%
Conditional path
Path by group finish
| Finish | Sample | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | No longer possible | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2nd | 100.0% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 3rd | No longer possible | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Overall opponent pool
Most common opponents by round
If reached shows the opponent split among this team's matches in that round. All sims shows how often the matchup happens across the latest current-state snapshot.
R32
Croatia If reached: 100.0% All sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 100.0% R16
Spain If reached: 100.0% All sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 0% QF
No opponent samples.
SF
No opponent samples.
Final
No opponent samples.
Finish 1st
Portugal opponent pool if finishing 1st
For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.
R32
No longer possible
R16
No longer possible
QF
No longer possible
SF
No longer possible
Final
No longer possible
Finish 2nd
Portugal opponent pool if finishing 2nd
For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.
R32
Croatia If reached: 100.0% Path sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 100.0% R16
Spain If reached: 100.0% Path sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 0% QF
Not enough samples.
SF
Not enough samples.
Final
Not enough samples.
Finish 3rd
Portugal opponent pool if finishing 3rd
For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.
R32
No longer possible
R16
No longer possible
QF
No longer possible
SF
No longer possible
Final
No longer possible
Squad
Current squad
| Pos | Player | Age | Height | Club | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GK | Diogo Costa | 26 | 1,87m | FC Porto | €40.0m |
| GK | Rui Silva | 32 | 1,91m | Sporting CP | €7.0m |
| GK | José Sá | 33 | 1,92m | Wolverhampton Wanderers | €5.0m |
| CB | Rúben Dias | 29 | 1,87m | Manchester City | €60.0m |
| CB | Gonçalo Inácio | 24 | 1,86m | Sporting CP | €40.0m |
| CB | Tomás Araújo | 24 | 1,87m | SL Benfica | €30.0m |
| CB | Renato Veiga | 22 | 1,90m | Villarreal CF | €25.0m |
| LB | Nuno Mendes | 23 | 1,80m | Paris Saint-Germain | €75.0m |
| RB | Matheus Nunes | 27 | 1,83m | Manchester City | €45.0m |
| RB | Diogo Dalot | 27 | 1,83m | Manchester United | €30.0m |
| RB | João Cancelo | 32 | 1,82m | FC Barcelona | €9.0m |
| RB | Nélson Semedo | 32 | 1,77m | Fenerbahce | €6.0m |
| DM | Vitinha | 26 | 1,72m | Paris Saint-Germain | €110.0m |
| DM | Rúben Neves | 29 | 1,80m | Al-Hilal SFC | €25.0m |
| DM | Samú Costa | 25 | 1,85m | RCD Mallorca | €15.0m |
| CM | João Neves | 21 | 1,74m | Paris Saint-Germain | €110.0m |
| AM | Bruno Fernandes | 31 | 1,79m | Manchester United | €40.0m |
| AM | Francisco Trincão | 26 | 1,84m | Sporting CP | €40.0m |
| AM | Bernardo Silva | 31 | 1,73m | Manchester City | €27.0m |
| LW | Rafael Leão | 27 | 1,88m | AC Milan | €50.0m |
| LW | Gonçalo Guedes | 29 | 1,79m | Real Sociedad | €6.0m |
| RW | Pedro Neto | 26 | 1,74m | Chelsea FC | €60.0m |
| RW | Francisco Conceição | 23 | 1,70m | Juventus FC | €30.0m |
| SS | João Félix | 26 | 1,81m | Al-Nassr FC | €25.0m |
| CF | Gonçalo Ramos | 24 | 1,85m | Paris Saint-Germain | €35.0m |
| CF | Cristiano Ronaldo | 41 | 1,88m | Al-Nassr FC | €12.0m |
Important note: This simulator and its probability outputs are for entertainment and informational purposes only. They are not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, trade, or participate in any prediction market. No real-money contest is offered or accepted on baplab.