Group G

Belgium Belgium

This profile is based on 100,000 simulations using the current WC26 simulator engine. The numbers are a model snapshot, not a guarantee. Team ratings, squads and injury updates may change over time.

Champion 3.5%
Group qualification 97.0%
Squad value €530.2m
Avg age 27.6
Avg height 1.861m
Manager Rudi Garcia

Group

Finish probabilities

1st 68.5%
2nd 22.5%
3rd qualified 6.0%
3rd not qualified 1.0%
4th 1.9%

Tournament

Stage reach probabilities

R32 97.0%
R16 65.0%
QF 37.5%
SF 16.9%
Final 8.0%
Champion 3.5%

Conditional path

Path by group finish

Finish Sample R32R16QFSFFinalChampion
1st 68.5% 100.0%68.5%42.6%18.5%8.8%3.9%
2nd 22.5% 100.0%64.1%28.6%15.0%6.9%3.1%
3rd 7.0% 85.5%52.0%25.9%12.0%5.6%2.7%

Overall opponent pool

Most common opponents by round

If reached shows the opponent split among this team's matches in that round. All sims shows how often the matchup happens across the full 100,000-simulation snapshot.

R32

Czechia Czechia If reached: 15.2% All sims: 14.8% Win rate: 70.1%
South Korea South Korea If reached: 12.8% All sims: 12.4% Win rate: 63.7%
South Africa South Africa If reached: 10.8% All sims: 10.5% Win rate: 84.0%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 10.6% All sims: 10.3% Win rate: 59.0%
Türkiye Türkiye If reached: 7.3% All sims: 7.1% Win rate: 57.1%

R16

USA USA If reached: 17.9% All sims: 11.6% Win rate: 58.1%
Türkiye Türkiye If reached: 16.8% All sims: 10.9% Win rate: 56.4%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 11.3% All sims: 7.3% Win rate: 36.8%
Bosnia-Herz. Bosnia-Herz. If reached: 6.2% All sims: 4.0% Win rate: 73.7%
Paraguay Paraguay If reached: 6.1% All sims: 3.9% Win rate: 71.9%

QF

Spain Spain If reached: 30.9% All sims: 11.6% Win rate: 32.1%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 12.7% All sims: 4.7% Win rate: 39.9%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 8.2% All sims: 3.1% Win rate: 54.4%
England England If reached: 8.1% All sims: 3.1% Win rate: 38.1%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 7.6% All sims: 2.9% Win rate: 54.3%

SF

France France If reached: 21.0% All sims: 3.6% Win rate: 32.3%
Germany Germany If reached: 11.0% All sims: 1.9% Win rate: 43.8%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 10.6% All sims: 1.8% Win rate: 44.0%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 10.1% All sims: 1.7% Win rate: 38.1%
Norway Norway If reached: 5.5% All sims: 0.9% Win rate: 49.3%

Final

Argentina Argentina If reached: 12.2% All sims: 1.0% Win rate: 36.5%
England England If reached: 10.3% All sims: 0.8% Win rate: 36.5%
France France If reached: 10.0% All sims: 0.8% Win rate: 33.0%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 9.7% All sims: 0.8% Win rate: 42.3%
Spain Spain If reached: 9.5% All sims: 0.8% Win rate: 27.5%

Finish 1st

Belgium opponent pool if finishing 1st

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Czechia Czechia If reached: 21.5% Path sims: 21.5% Win rate: 70.1%
South Korea South Korea If reached: 18.1% Path sims: 18.1% Win rate: 63.7%
South Africa South Africa If reached: 15.3% Path sims: 15.3% Win rate: 84.0%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 15.0% Path sims: 15.0% Win rate: 59.0%
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia If reached: 4.5% Path sims: 4.5% Win rate: 84.5%

R16

USA USA If reached: 24.7% Path sims: 16.9% Win rate: 58.0%
Türkiye Türkiye If reached: 23.2% Path sims: 15.9% Win rate: 56.4%
Bosnia-Herz. Bosnia-Herz. If reached: 8.6% Path sims: 5.9% Win rate: 73.7%
Paraguay Paraguay If reached: 8.3% Path sims: 5.7% Win rate: 72.0%
Canada Canada If reached: 8.3% Path sims: 5.7% Win rate: 67.6%

QF

Spain Spain If reached: 39.1% Path sims: 16.7% Win rate: 32.2%
England England If reached: 9.7% Path sims: 4.1% Win rate: 38.0%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 9.3% Path sims: 4.0% Win rate: 40.4%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 9.0% Path sims: 3.8% Win rate: 54.5%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 8.2% Path sims: 3.5% Win rate: 54.7%

SF

France France If reached: 25.0% Path sims: 4.6% Win rate: 32.1%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 12.8% Path sims: 2.4% Win rate: 44.4%
Germany Germany If reached: 12.5% Path sims: 2.3% Win rate: 44.3%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 7.8% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 38.4%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 6.1% Path sims: 1.1% Win rate: 56.9%

Final

Argentina Argentina If reached: 14.8% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 36.9%
England England If reached: 12.3% Path sims: 1.1% Win rate: 36.6%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 11.6% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 42.5%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 10.7% Path sims: 0.9% Win rate: 41.6%
France France If reached: 7.6% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 29.6%

Finish 2nd

Belgium opponent pool if finishing 2nd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Türkiye Türkiye If reached: 31.4% Path sims: 31.4% Win rate: 57.1%
USA USA If reached: 29.6% Path sims: 29.6% Win rate: 58.3%
Paraguay Paraguay If reached: 24.4% Path sims: 24.4% Win rate: 70.5%
Australia Australia If reached: 14.6% Path sims: 14.6% Win rate: 80.4%

R16

Argentina Argentina If reached: 48.5% Path sims: 31.1% Win rate: 36.8%
Uruguay Uruguay If reached: 23.6% Path sims: 15.1% Win rate: 53.8%
Spain Spain If reached: 13.7% Path sims: 8.8% Win rate: 31.6%
Austria Austria If reached: 7.7% Path sims: 4.9% Win rate: 61.0%
Algeria Algeria If reached: 3.7% Path sims: 2.4% Win rate: 71.3%

QF

Portugal Portugal If reached: 31.6% Path sims: 9.0% Win rate: 39.4%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 14.5% Path sims: 4.2% Win rate: 59.1%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 10.3% Path sims: 2.9% Win rate: 53.1%
Canada Canada If reached: 5.2% Path sims: 1.5% Win rate: 63.9%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 3.8% Path sims: 1.1% Win rate: 52.4%

SF

England England If reached: 19.5% Path sims: 2.9% Win rate: 43.6%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 17.1% Path sims: 2.6% Win rate: 37.8%
France France If reached: 9.6% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 35.0%
Norway Norway If reached: 7.4% Path sims: 1.1% Win rate: 45.2%
Germany Germany If reached: 6.9% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 41.7%

Final

Spain Spain If reached: 19.7% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 30.8%
France France If reached: 17.2% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 37.9%
Germany Germany If reached: 7.1% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 45.0%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 6.3% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 35.4%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 4.5% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 40.0%

Finish 3rd

Belgium opponent pool if finishing 3rd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 40.6% Path sims: 34.7% Win rate: 57.2%
Canada Canada If reached: 22.2% Path sims: 18.9% Win rate: 70.1%
Bosnia-Herz. Bosnia-Herz. If reached: 14.4% Path sims: 12.3% Win rate: 72.8%
France France If reached: 11.7% Path sims: 10.0% Win rate: 36.3%
Norway Norway If reached: 5.1% Path sims: 4.4% Win rate: 51.8%

R16

Portugal Portugal If reached: 37.1% Path sims: 19.3% Win rate: 39.9%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 14.1% Path sims: 7.3% Win rate: 52.6%
Germany Germany If reached: 6.9% Path sims: 3.6% Win rate: 40.5%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 5.5% Path sims: 2.9% Win rate: 49.0%
Ghana Ghana If reached: 5.0% Path sims: 2.6% Win rate: 71.3%

QF

Argentina Argentina If reached: 32.9% Path sims: 8.5% Win rate: 32.9%
Uruguay Uruguay If reached: 12.1% Path sims: 3.1% Win rate: 49.1%
Spain Spain If reached: 8.9% Path sims: 2.3% Win rate: 25.9%
Türkiye Türkiye If reached: 8.7% Path sims: 2.2% Win rate: 53.5%
USA USA If reached: 7.4% Path sims: 1.9% Win rate: 61.2%

SF

England England If reached: 18.1% Path sims: 2.2% Win rate: 43.8%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 16.8% Path sims: 2.0% Win rate: 38.0%
France France If reached: 7.6% Path sims: 0.9% Win rate: 29.7%
Norway Norway If reached: 6.6% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 57.1%
Spain Spain If reached: 5.8% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 24.5%

Final

Spain Spain If reached: 17.0% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 28.4%
France France If reached: 16.8% Path sims: 0.9% Win rate: 36.4%
Germany Germany If reached: 8.9% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 48.6%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 6.9% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 48.1%
England England If reached: 5.8% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 17.4%

Squad

Current squad

26 players
Pos Player Age Height Club Value
GK Senne Lammens 23 1,93m Manchester United €30.0m
GK Mike Penders 20 2,00m RC Strasbourg Alsace €22.0m
GK Thibaut Courtois 34 2,00m Real Madrid €18.0m
CB Zeno Debast 22 1,91m Sporting CP €28.0m
CB Koni de Winter 24 1,91m AC Milan €23.0m
CB Nathan Ngoy 23 1,83m LOSC Lille €20.0m
CB Arthur Theate 26 1,85m Eintracht Frankfurt €17.0m
CB Brandon Mechele 33 1,90m Club Brugge KV €3.0m
LB Maxim De Cuyper 25 1,82m Brighton & Hove Albion €22.0m
LB Joaquin Seys 21 1,78m Club Brugge KV €17.0m
RB Timothy Castagne 30 1,85m Fulham FC €10.0m
RB Thomas Meunier 34 1,91m LOSC Lille €1.8m
DM Amadou Onana 24 1,95m Aston Villa €45.0m
DM Nicolas Raskin 25 1,78m Rangers FC €12.0m
DM Axel Witsel 37 1,86m Girona FC €1.4m
CM Youri Tielemans 29 1,77m Aston Villa €35.0m
LM Diego Moreira 21 1,79m RC Strasbourg Alsace €25.0m
RM Alexis Saelemaekers 26 1,80m AC Milan €20.0m
AM Charles De Ketelaere 25 1,92m Atalanta BC €30.0m
AM Kevin De Bruyne 34 1,81m SSC Napoli €8.0m
AM Hans Vanaken 33 1,95m Club Brugge KV €6.0m
LW Jérémy Doku 24 1,73m Manchester City €65.0m
LW Leandro Trossard 31 1.72m Arsenal FC €20.0m
RW Dodi Lukébakio 28 1,87m SL Benfica €15.0m
CF Matias Fernandez-Pardo 21 1,83m LOSC Lille €30.0m
CF Romelu Lukaku 33 1.91m SSC Napoli €6.0m