Villarreal

ActiveESPPot 3UEFA Champions League 2026-27League phase

Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.

Club

OFFICIAL results as of 11 Sept 2026, 16:31 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 1

Season outlook

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points: 8.7
Expected league position: 23.6
Top 8 (direct to round of 16): 2.2%
Top 24 (reaches the knockouts): 51.3%

Competition state

DERIVEDLeague phase: 18 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 2
OFFICIALThis club: 1 of 8 played · 0 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost
OFFICIALLast result: MD1 · Borussia Dortmund 3–2 Villarreal · Lost
Next fixture: MD2 · Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Villarreal v Napoli

Model inputs

MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given

Strength rating: 81 / 100; BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
European pedigree: 3.5 / 5; European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
Home advantage: +0.24; Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.

League-phase fixtures

8 matches · kickoff in Central European time

MD1Tue, 8 Sept 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Away

Borussia Dortmund 3–2 Villarreal

OFFICIALFull time · Lost

MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable

Home win
61.4%
Draw
22.0%
Away win
16.7%

xG 1.88 – 0.86
MD2Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Home

Villarreal v Napoli

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
39.3%
Draw
25.8%
Away win
34.9%

xG 1.40 – 1.30
MD3Tue, 20 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Away

Liverpool v Villarreal

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
68.7%
Draw
19.2%
Away win
12.1%

xG 2.09 – 0.74
MD4Tue, 3 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Home

Villarreal v Paris Saint-Germain

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
14.9%
Draw
19.2%
Away win
65.9%

xG 0.93 – 2.18
MD5Wed, 25 Nov 2026 · 18:45 CET · Away

Slavia Praha v Villarreal

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
36.7%
Draw
25.7%
Away win
37.7%

xG 1.35 – 1.37
MD6Tue, 8 Dec 2026 · 18:45 CET · Home

Villarreal v Sabah

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
77.1%
Draw
15.2%
Away win
7.8%

xG 2.43 – 0.63
MD7Wed, 20 Jan 2027 · 18:45 CET · Away

Fenerbahçe v Villarreal

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
42.6%
Draw
25.6%
Away win
31.8%

xG 1.47 – 1.23
MD8Wed, 27 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Home

Villarreal v Manchester United

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
27.4%
Draw
24.5%
Away win
48.0%

xG 1.17 – 1.63

Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.

League-phase expectation

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points after 8 matches: 8.75; −0.74 vs pre-season
Expected league position 1 is best: 23.56; +1.35 vs pre-season

How far the club gets

reaches at least this stage

Top 8direct to the round of 16 2.2% −2.9 pp
Top 24reaches the knockout phase 51.3% −6.1 pp
Round of 16 20.7% −4.2 pp
Quarter-final 4.0% −1.4 pp
Semi-final 0.7% −0.3 pp
Final 0.1% 0.0 pp
Champion <0.1% 0.0 pp

Where the season ends

final outcome · sums to 100.0%

League phaseeliminated in the league phase 48.7% +6.1 pp
Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 30.5% −1.9 pp
Round of 16eliminated 16.8% −2.7 pp
Quarter-finaleliminated 3.2% −1.1 pp
Semi-finaleliminated 0.6% −0.3 pp
Finalrunner-up <0.1% 0.0 pp
Championwins the competition <0.1% 0.0 pp

Most likely end point: League phase.

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 1changes compared with the pre-season forecastmodel outputs, not odds