Villarreal

ActiveESPPot 3UEFA Champions League 2026-27League phase

Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.

Club

OFFICIAL results as of 22 Oct 2026, 05:02 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 3

Season outlook

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points: 10.1
Expected league position: 20.3
Top 8 (direct to round of 16): 3.1%
Top 24 (reaches the knockouts): 71.5%

Competition state

DERIVEDLeague phase: 54 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 4
OFFICIALThis club: 3 of 8 played · 1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
OFFICIALLast result: MD3 · Liverpool 4–3 Villarreal · Lost
Next fixture: MD4 · Tue, 3 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Villarreal v Paris Saint-Germain

Model inputs

MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given

Strength rating: 82.0 / 100; BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
European pedigree: 3.5 / 5; European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
Home advantage: +0.24; Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.

League-phase fixtures

8 matches · kickoff in Central European time

MD1Tue, 8 Sept 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Away

Borussia Dortmund 3–2 Villarreal

OFFICIALFull time · Lost

MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable

Home win
61.4%
Draw
22.0%
Away win
16.7%

xG 1.88 – 0.86
MD2Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Home

Villarreal 3–1 Napoli

OFFICIALFull time · Won

MODELPre-match forecastArchived 13 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC

Home win
39.3%
Draw
25.8%
Away win
34.9%

xG 1.40 – 1.30
MD3Tue, 20 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Away

Liverpool 4–3 Villarreal

OFFICIALFull time · Lost

MODELPre-match forecastArchived 20 Oct 2026, 12:32 UTC

Home win
68.7%
Draw
19.2%
Away win
12.1%

xG 2.09 – 0.74
MD4Tue, 3 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Home

Villarreal v Paris Saint-Germain

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
16.0%
Draw
19.9%
Away win
64.1%

xG 0.95 – 2.12
MD5Wed, 25 Nov 2026 · 18:45 CET · Away

Slavia Praha v Villarreal

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
32.8%
Draw
25.3%
Away win
41.9%

xG 1.28 – 1.48
MD6Tue, 8 Dec 2026 · 18:45 CET · Home

Villarreal v Sabah

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
71.6%
Draw
17.8%
Away win
10.6%

xG 2.22 – 0.72
MD7Wed, 20 Jan 2027 · 18:45 CET · Away

Fenerbahçe v Villarreal

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
39.7%
Draw
25.7%
Away win
34.6%

xG 1.41 – 1.30
MD8Wed, 27 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Home

Villarreal v Manchester United

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
34.7%
Draw
25.7%
Away win
39.7%

xG 1.31 – 1.42

Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.

League-phase expectation

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points after 8 matches: 10.11; +0.62 vs pre-season
Expected league position 1 is best: 20.33; −1.89 vs pre-season

How far the club gets

reaches at least this stage

Top 8direct to the round of 16 3.1% −1.9 pp
Top 24reaches the knockout phase 71.5% +14.1 pp
Round of 16 31.6% +6.7 pp
Quarter-final 6.1% +0.7 pp
Semi-final 1.2% +0.2 pp
Final 0.2% 0.0 pp
Champion <0.1% 0.0 pp

Where the season ends

final outcome · sums to 100.0%

League phaseeliminated in the league phase 28.5% −14.1 pp
Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 39.9% +7.4 pp
Round of 16eliminated 25.5% +6.0 pp
Quarter-finaleliminated 4.9% +0.5 pp
Semi-finaleliminated 1.0% +0.1 pp
Finalrunner-up 0.1% 0.0 pp
Championwins the competition <0.1% 0.0 pp

Most likely end point: Knockout play-off.

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 3changes compared with the pre-season forecast, which also include the rating revision of 22 October 2026model outputs, not odds