Napoli
Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.
OFFICIAL results as of 22 Oct 2026, 05:02 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 3
Season outlook
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points
- 10.8
- Expected league position
- 19.2
- Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
- 3.7%
- Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
- 78.2%
Competition state
- DERIVEDLeague phase
- 54 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 4
- OFFICIALThis club
- 3 of 8 played · 1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
- OFFICIALLast result
- MD3 · Napoli 4–3 Bodø/Glimt · Won
- Next fixture
- MD4 · Wed, 4 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Porto v Napoli
Model inputs
MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given- Strength rating
- 83.3 / 100
- BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
- European pedigree
- 3.5 / 5
- European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
- Home advantage
- +0.31
- Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.
League-phase fixtures
8 matches · kickoff in Central European time-
MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable
- Home win
- 21.7%
- Draw
- 22.6%
- Away win
- 55.7%
xG 1.08 – 1.86
-
MODELPre-match forecastArchived 13 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC
- Home win
- 39.3%
- Draw
- 25.8%
- Away win
- 34.9%
xG 1.40 – 1.30
-
MODELPre-match forecastArchived 20 Oct 2026, 12:32 UTC
- Home win
- 62.0%
- Draw
- 21.7%
- Away win
- 16.3%
xG 1.90 – 0.86
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 43.7%
- Draw
- 25.6%
- Away win
- 30.8%
xG 1.49 – 1.21
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 71.2%
- Draw
- 18.0%
- Away win
- 10.8%
xG 2.20 – 0.72
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 51.0%
- Draw
- 24.6%
- Away win
- 24.4%
xG 1.64 – 1.06
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 19.7%
- Draw
- 21.8%
- Away win
- 58.6%
xG 1.03 – 1.94
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 72.4%
- Draw
- 17.5%
- Away win
- 10.0%
xG 2.22 – 0.69
Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.
League-phase expectation
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points after 8 matches
- 10.77
- −1.61 vs pre-season
- Expected league position 1 is best
- 19.19
- +3.79 vs pre-season
How far the club gets
reaches at least this stage- Top 8direct to the round of 16 3.7% −16.7 pp
- Top 24reaches the knockout phase 78.2% −8.0 pp
- Round of 16 39.1% −14.9 pp
- Quarter-final 8.9% −8.3 pp
- Semi-final 2.1% −2.2 pp
- Final 0.4% −0.5 pp
- Champion <0.1% −0.1 pp
Where the season ends
final outcome · sums to 100.0%- League phaseeliminated in the league phase 21.8% +8.0 pp
- Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 39.1% +6.9 pp
- Round of 16eliminated 30.2% −6.6 pp
- Quarter-finaleliminated 6.8% −6.1 pp
- Semi-finaleliminated 1.7% −1.7 pp
- Finalrunner-up 0.3% −0.3 pp
- Championwins the competition <0.1% −0.1 pp
Most likely end point: Knockout play-off.
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 3changes compared with the pre-season forecast, which also include the rating revision of 22 October 2026model outputs, not odds