Napoli
Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.
OFFICIAL results as of 11 Sept 2026, 16:31 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 1
Season outlook
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points
- 11.5
- Expected league position
- 17.3
- Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
- 10.8%
- Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
- 82.8%
Competition state
- DERIVEDLeague phase
- 18 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 2
- OFFICIALThis club
- 1 of 8 played · 0 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost
- OFFICIALLast result
- MD1 · Napoli 0–1 Arsenal · Lost
- Next fixture
- MD2 · Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Villarreal v Napoli
Model inputs
MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given- Strength rating
- 84 / 100
- BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
- European pedigree
- 3.5 / 5
- European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
- Home advantage
- +0.31
- Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.
League-phase fixtures
8 matches · kickoff in Central European time-
MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable
- Home win
- 21.7%
- Draw
- 22.6%
- Away win
- 55.7%
xG 1.08 – 1.86
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 39.3%
- Draw
- 25.8%
- Away win
- 34.9%
xG 1.40 – 1.30
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 62.0%
- Draw
- 21.7%
- Away win
- 16.3%
xG 1.90 – 0.86
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 46.2%
- Draw
- 25.3%
- Away win
- 28.5%
xG 1.54 – 1.15
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 70.1%
- Draw
- 18.5%
- Away win
- 11.4%
xG 2.16 – 0.74
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 54.3%
- Draw
- 23.9%
- Away win
- 21.8%
xG 1.71 – 0.99
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 13.7%
- Draw
- 18.3%
- Away win
- 68.0%
xG 0.92 – 2.28
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 74.2%
- Draw
- 16.7%
- Away win
- 9.1%
xG 2.29 – 0.66
Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.
League-phase expectation
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points after 8 matches
- 11.51
- −0.87 vs pre-season
- Expected league position 1 is best
- 17.25
- +1.85 vs pre-season
How far the club gets
reaches at least this stage- Top 8direct to the round of 16 10.8% −9.6 pp
- Top 24reaches the knockout phase 82.8% −3.5 pp
- Round of 16 47.0% −7.0 pp
- Quarter-final 13.1% −4.1 pp
- Semi-final 3.3% −1.0 pp
- Final 0.7% −0.2 pp
- Champion 0.2% −0.1 pp
Where the season ends
final outcome · sums to 100.0%- League phaseeliminated in the league phase 17.2% +3.5 pp
- Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 35.8% +3.5 pp
- Round of 16eliminated 33.9% −2.9 pp
- Quarter-finaleliminated 9.8% −3.1 pp
- Semi-finaleliminated 2.6% −0.8 pp
- Finalrunner-up 0.5% −0.1 pp
- Championwins the competition 0.2% −0.1 pp
Most likely end point: Knockout play-off.
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 1changes compared with the pre-season forecastmodel outputs, not odds