Manchester City
Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.
OFFICIAL results as of 22 Oct 2026, 05:02 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 3
Season outlook
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points
- 15.5
- Expected league position
- 8.7
- Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
- 56.4%
- Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
- 99.4%
Competition state
- DERIVEDLeague phase
- 54 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 4
- OFFICIALThis club
- 3 of 8 played · 2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost
- OFFICIALLast result
- MD3 · Manchester City 5–1 AEK Athens · Won
- Next fixture
- MD4 · Wed, 4 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · RB Leipzig v Manchester City
Model inputs
MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given- Strength rating
- 94.0 / 100
- BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
- European pedigree
- 4.5 / 5
- European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
- Home advantage
- +0.25
- Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.
League-phase fixtures
8 matches · kickoff in Central European time-
MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable
- Home win
- 23.1%
- Draw
- 23.0%
- Away win
- 53.8%
xG 1.11 – 1.81
-
MD2Wed, 14 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Home
Manchester City 2–4 Paris Saint-Germain
OFFICIALFull time · Lost
MODELPre-match forecastArchived 13 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC
- Home win
- 40.0%
- Draw
- 25.8%
- Away win
- 34.3%
xG 1.41 – 1.29
-
MODELPre-match forecastArchived 20 Oct 2026, 12:32 UTC
- Home win
- 83.6%
- Draw
- 11.6%
- Away win
- 4.8%
xG 2.75 – 0.53
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 19.9%
- Draw
- 22.0%
- Away win
- 58.1%
xG 1.03 – 1.92
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 71.2%
- Draw
- 18.0%
- Away win
- 10.8%
xG 2.20 – 0.72
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 49.4%
- Draw
- 24.9%
- Away win
- 25.7%
xG 1.61 – 1.09
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 18.1%
- Draw
- 20.8%
- Away win
- 61.1%
xG 1.02 – 2.05
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 65.9%
- Draw
- 20.2%
- Away win
- 13.9%
xG 2.03 – 0.80
Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.
League-phase expectation
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points after 8 matches
- 15.52
- +0.15 vs pre-season
- Expected league position 1 is best
- 8.69
- −0.40 vs pre-season
How far the club gets
reaches at least this stage- Top 8direct to the round of 16 56.4% +1.5 pp
- Top 24reaches the knockout phase 99.4% +2.1 pp
- Round of 16 92.7% +2.9 pp
- Quarter-final 64.4% +2.5 pp
- Semi-final 36.0% −0.4 pp
- Final 18.5% −0.7 pp
- Champion 9.2% −0.4 pp
Where the season ends
final outcome · sums to 100.0%- League phaseeliminated in the league phase 0.6% −2.1 pp
- Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 6.6% −0.8 pp
- Round of 16eliminated 28.3% +0.4 pp
- Quarter-finaleliminated 28.4% +2.9 pp
- Semi-finaleliminated 17.5% +0.3 pp
- Finalrunner-up 9.3% −0.3 pp
- Championwins the competition 9.2% −0.4 pp
Most likely end point: Quarter-final.
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 3changes compared with the pre-season forecast, which also include the rating revision of 22 October 2026model outputs, not odds