Manchester City

ActiveENGPot 1UEFA Champions League 2026-27League phase

Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.

Club

OFFICIAL results as of 11 Sept 2026, 16:31 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 1

Season outlook

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points: 16.5
Expected league position: 7.4
Top 8 (direct to round of 16): 65.6%
Top 24 (reaches the knockouts): 99.3%

Competition state

DERIVEDLeague phase: 18 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 2
OFFICIALThis club: 1 of 8 played · 1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost
OFFICIALLast result: MD1 · Porto 0–2 Manchester City · Won
Next fixture: MD2 · Wed, 14 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Manchester City v Paris Saint-Germain

Model inputs

MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given

Strength rating: 94 / 100; BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
European pedigree: 4.5 / 5; European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
Home advantage: +0.25; Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.

League-phase fixtures

8 matches · kickoff in Central European time

MD1Tue, 8 Sept 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Away

Porto 0–2 Manchester City

OFFICIALFull time · Won

MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable

Home win
23.1%
Draw
23.0%
Away win
53.8%

xG 1.11 – 1.81
MD2Wed, 14 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Home

Manchester City v Paris Saint-Germain

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
40.0%
Draw
25.8%
Away win
34.3%

xG 1.41 – 1.29
MD3Tue, 20 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Home

Manchester City v AEK Athens

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
83.6%
Draw
11.6%
Away win
4.8%

xG 2.75 – 0.53
MD4Wed, 4 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Away

RB Leipzig v Manchester City

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
20.4%
Draw
22.2%
Away win
57.4%

xG 1.04 – 1.90
MD5Tue, 24 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Home

Manchester City v Napoli

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
70.1%
Draw
18.5%
Away win
11.4%

xG 2.16 – 0.74
MD6Tue, 8 Dec 2026 · 21:00 CET · Away

Barcelona v Manchester City

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
49.2%
Draw
24.9%
Away win
25.9%

xG 1.60 – 1.09
MD7Wed, 20 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Away

Lens v Manchester City

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
18.7%
Draw
21.1%
Away win
60.1%

xG 1.03 – 2.02
MD8Wed, 27 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Home

Manchester City v Sporting CP

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
65.6%
Draw
20.3%
Away win
14.1%

xG 2.02 – 0.81

Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.

League-phase expectation

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points after 8 matches: 16.52; +1.15 vs pre-season
Expected league position 1 is best: 7.40; −1.69 vs pre-season

How far the club gets

reaches at least this stage

Top 8direct to the round of 16 65.6% +10.8 pp
Top 24reaches the knockout phase 99.3% +2.1 pp
Round of 16 93.9% +4.1 pp
Quarter-final 66.3% +4.5 pp
Semi-final 38.5% +2.1 pp
Final 20.2% +1.0 pp
Champion 9.9% +0.2 pp

Where the season ends

final outcome · sums to 100.0%

League phaseeliminated in the league phase 0.7% −2.1 pp
Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 5.4% −2.0 pp
Round of 16eliminated 27.6% −0.4 pp
Quarter-finaleliminated 27.9% +2.4 pp
Semi-finaleliminated 18.2% +1.1 pp
Finalrunner-up 10.4% +0.8 pp
Championwins the competition 9.9% +0.2 pp

Most likely end point: Quarter-final.

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 1changes compared with the pre-season forecastmodel outputs, not odds