Paris Saint-Germain
Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.
OFFICIAL results as of 11 Sept 2026, 16:31 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 1
Season outlook
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points
- 16.9
- Expected league position
- 6.5
- Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
- 71.8%
- Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
- 99.5%
Competition state
- DERIVEDLeague phase
- 18 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 2
- OFFICIALThis club
- 1 of 8 played · 1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost
- OFFICIALLast result
- MD1 · Paris Saint-Germain 6–1 Slovan Bratislava · Won
- Next fixture
- MD2 · Wed, 14 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Manchester City v Paris Saint-Germain
Model inputs
MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given- Strength rating
- 96 / 100
- BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
- European pedigree
- 4.5 / 5
- European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
- Home advantage
- +0.26
- Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.
League-phase fixtures
8 matches · kickoff in Central European time-
MD1Wed, 9 Sept 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Home
Paris Saint-Germain 6–1 Slovan Bratislava
OFFICIALFull time · Won
MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable
- Home win
- 93.1%
- Draw
- 5.4%
- Away win
- 1.4%
xG 3.58 – 0.36
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 40.0%
- Draw
- 25.8%
- Away win
- 34.3%
xG 1.41 – 1.29
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 47.5%
- Draw
- 25.1%
- Away win
- 27.3%
xG 1.57 – 1.12
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 14.9%
- Draw
- 19.2%
- Away win
- 65.9%
xG 0.93 – 2.18
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 74.6%
- Draw
- 16.4%
- Away win
- 8.9%
xG 2.32 – 0.67
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 26.7%
- Draw
- 24.3%
- Away win
- 49.0%
xG 1.17 – 1.66
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 16.2%
- Draw
- 20.1%
- Away win
- 63.7%
xG 0.96 – 2.10
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 77.6%
- Draw
- 14.9%
- Away win
- 7.5%
xG 2.45 – 0.62
Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.
League-phase expectation
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points after 8 matches
- 16.85
- +0.17 vs pre-season
- Expected league position 1 is best
- 6.54
- −0.14 vs pre-season
How far the club gets
reaches at least this stage- Top 8direct to the round of 16 71.8% +0.7 pp
- Top 24reaches the knockout phase 99.5% +0.4 pp
- Round of 16 96.2% +0.5 pp
- Quarter-final 74.8% +0.8 pp
- Semi-final 49.8% +0.2 pp
- Final 30.4% −0.3 pp
- Champion 17.1% −0.3 pp
Where the season ends
final outcome · sums to 100.0%- League phaseeliminated in the league phase 0.5% −0.4 pp
- Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 3.3% −0.2 pp
- Round of 16eliminated 21.4% −0.2 pp
- Quarter-finaleliminated 24.9% +0.6 pp
- Semi-finaleliminated 19.4% +0.5 pp
- Finalrunner-up 13.3% 0.0 pp
- Championwins the competition 17.1% −0.3 pp
Most likely end point: Quarter-final.
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 1changes compared with the pre-season forecastmodel outputs, not odds