Paris Saint-Germain
Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.
OFFICIAL results as of 22 Oct 2026, 05:02 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 3
Season outlook
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points
- 19.7
- Expected league position
- 3.1
- Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
- 95.5%
- Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
- 100.0%
Competition state
- DERIVEDLeague phase
- 54 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 4
- OFFICIALThis club
- 3 of 8 played · 3 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost
- OFFICIALLast result
- MD3 · Paris Saint-Germain 4–2 Barcelona · Won
- Next fixture
- MD4 · Tue, 3 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Villarreal v Paris Saint-Germain
Model inputs
MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given- Strength rating
- 96.0 / 100
- BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
- European pedigree
- 4.5 / 5
- European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
- Home advantage
- +0.26
- Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.
League-phase fixtures
8 matches · kickoff in Central European time-
MD1Wed, 9 Sept 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Home
Paris Saint-Germain 6–1 Slovan Bratislava
OFFICIALFull time · Won
MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable
- Home win
- 93.1%
- Draw
- 5.4%
- Away win
- 1.4%
xG 3.58 – 0.36
-
MD2Wed, 14 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Away
Manchester City 2–4 Paris Saint-Germain
OFFICIALFull time · Won
MODELPre-match forecastArchived 13 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC
- Home win
- 40.0%
- Draw
- 25.8%
- Away win
- 34.3%
xG 1.41 – 1.29
-
MODELPre-match forecastArchived 20 Oct 2026, 12:32 UTC
- Home win
- 47.5%
- Draw
- 25.1%
- Away win
- 27.3%
xG 1.57 – 1.12
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 16.0%
- Draw
- 19.9%
- Away win
- 64.1%
xG 0.95 – 2.12
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 75.1%
- Draw
- 16.2%
- Away win
- 8.7%
xG 2.34 – 0.66
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 28.7%
- Draw
- 24.7%
- Away win
- 46.6%
xG 1.20 – 1.60
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 17.1%
- Draw
- 20.6%
- Away win
- 62.3%
xG 0.97 – 2.05
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 77.9%
- Draw
- 14.7%
- Away win
- 7.3%
xG 2.46 – 0.62
Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.
League-phase expectation
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points after 8 matches
- 19.75
- +3.07 vs pre-season
- Expected league position 1 is best
- 3.10
- −3.58 vs pre-season
How far the club gets
reaches at least this stage- Top 8direct to the round of 16 95.5% +24.5 pp
- Top 24reaches the knockout phase 100.0% +0.9 pp
- Round of 16 99.5% +3.9 pp
- Quarter-final 82.0% +8.0 pp
- Semi-final 55.1% +5.4 pp
- Final 33.3% +2.6 pp
- Champion 18.4% +1.0 pp
Where the season ends
final outcome · sums to 100.0%- League phaseeliminated in the league phase <0.1% −0.9 pp
- Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 0.5% −3.0 pp
- Round of 16eliminated 17.5% −4.1 pp
- Quarter-finaleliminated 26.9% +2.6 pp
- Semi-finaleliminated 21.8% +2.8 pp
- Finalrunner-up 14.9% +1.6 pp
- Championwins the competition 18.4% +1.0 pp
Most likely end point: Quarter-final.
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 3changes compared with the pre-season forecast, which also include the rating revision of 22 October 2026model outputs, not odds