Galatasaray

ActiveTURPot 3UEFA Champions League 2026-27League phase

Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.

Club

OFFICIAL results as of 22 Oct 2026, 05:02 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 3

Season outlook

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points: 9.7
Expected league position: 22.0
Top 8 (direct to round of 16): 1.7%
Top 24 (reaches the knockouts): 62.2%

Competition state

DERIVEDLeague phase: 54 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 4
OFFICIALThis club: 3 of 8 played · 1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
OFFICIALLast result: MD3 · Lille 2–4 Galatasaray · Won
Next fixture: MD4 · Tue, 3 Nov 2026 · 18:45 CET · Galatasaray v Stuttgart

Model inputs

MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given

Strength rating: 81.8 / 100; BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
European pedigree: 4.0 / 5; European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
Home advantage: +0.36; Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.

League-phase fixtures

8 matches · kickoff in Central European time

MD1Wed, 9 Sept 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Away

Sporting CP 3–1 Galatasaray

OFFICIALFull time · Lost

MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable

Home win
54.5%
Draw
23.8%
Away win
21.6%

xG 1.72 – 0.99
MD2Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Home

Galatasaray 1–4 Barcelona

OFFICIALFull time · Lost

MODELPre-match forecastArchived 13 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC

Home win
20.2%
Draw
21.7%
Away win
58.0%

xG 1.06 – 1.95
MD3Wed, 21 Oct 2026 · 18:45 CEST · Away

Lille 2–4 Galatasaray

OFFICIALFull time · Won

MODELPre-match forecastArchived 20 Oct 2026, 12:32 UTC

Home win
43.4%
Draw
25.6%
Away win
31.0%

xG 1.48 – 1.21
MD4Tue, 3 Nov 2026 · 18:45 CET · Home

Galatasaray v Stuttgart

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
46.8%
Draw
25.2%
Away win
27.9%

xG 1.55 – 1.14
MD5Tue, 24 Nov 2026 · 18:45 CET · Home

Galatasaray v Aston Villa

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
33.4%
Draw
25.3%
Away win
41.2%

xG 1.30 – 1.47
MD6Tue, 8 Dec 2026 · 21:00 CET · Away

AEK Athens v Galatasaray

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
34.7%
Draw
25.5%
Away win
39.8%

xG 1.32 – 1.43
MD7Tue, 19 Jan 2027 · 18:45 CET · Home

Galatasaray v Feyenoord

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
57.5%
Draw
23.1%
Away win
19.4%

xG 1.78 – 0.93
MD8Wed, 27 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Away

Paris Saint-Germain v Galatasaray

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
77.9%
Draw
14.7%
Away win
7.3%

xG 2.46 – 0.62

Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.

League-phase expectation

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points after 8 matches: 9.69; −0.03 vs pre-season
Expected league position 1 is best: 22.05; +0.34 vs pre-season

How far the club gets

reaches at least this stage

Top 8direct to the round of 16 1.7% −4.4 pp
Top 24reaches the knockout phase 62.2% +2.5 pp
Round of 16 27.8% −1.8 pp
Quarter-final 5.8% −1.9 pp
Semi-final 1.3% −0.4 pp
Final 0.2% −0.1 pp
Champion <0.1% 0.0 pp

Where the season ends

final outcome · sums to 100.0%

League phaseeliminated in the league phase 37.8% −2.5 pp
Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 34.5% +4.3 pp
Round of 16eliminated 22.0% +0.1 pp
Quarter-finaleliminated 4.5% −1.4 pp
Semi-finaleliminated 1.1% −0.4 pp
Finalrunner-up 0.2% −0.1 pp
Championwins the competition <0.1% 0.0 pp

Most likely end point: League phase.

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 3changes compared with the pre-season forecast, which also include the rating revision of 22 October 2026model outputs, not odds