Sporting CP

ActivePORPot 2UEFA Champions League 2026-27League phase

Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.

Club

OFFICIAL results as of 22 Oct 2026, 05:02 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 3

Season outlook

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points: 12.1
Expected league position: 16.0
Top 8 (direct to round of 16): 12.0%
Top 24 (reaches the knockouts): 89.1%

Competition state

DERIVEDLeague phase: 54 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 4
OFFICIALThis club: 3 of 8 played · 2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost
OFFICIALLast result: MD3 · Sporting CP 2–3 LASK · Lost
Next fixture: MD4 · Tue, 3 Nov 2026 · 18:45 CET · Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting CP

Model inputs

MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given

Strength rating: 85.9 / 100; BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
European pedigree: 4.0 / 5; European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
Home advantage: +0.29; Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.

League-phase fixtures

8 matches · kickoff in Central European time

MD1Wed, 9 Sept 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Home

Sporting CP 3–1 Galatasaray

OFFICIALFull time · Won

MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable

Home win
54.5%
Draw
23.8%
Away win
21.6%

xG 1.72 – 0.99
MD2Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · 18:45 CEST · Away

Lens 0–2 Sporting CP

OFFICIALFull time · Won

MODELPre-match forecastArchived 13 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC

Home win
35.7%
Draw
25.6%
Away win
38.7%

xG 1.34 – 1.40
MD3Wed, 21 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Home

Sporting CP 2–3 LASK

OFFICIALFull time · Lost

MODELPre-match forecastArchived 20 Oct 2026, 12:32 UTC

Home win
75.9%
Draw
15.8%
Away win
8.2%

xG 2.36 – 0.64
MD4Tue, 3 Nov 2026 · 18:45 CET · Away

Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting CP

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
28.0%
Draw
24.8%
Away win
47.3%

xG 1.17 – 1.60
MD5Wed, 25 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Home

Sporting CP v Manchester United

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
44.1%
Draw
25.5%
Away win
30.3%

xG 1.49 – 1.19
MD6Tue, 8 Dec 2026 · 21:00 CET · Away

Roma v Sporting CP

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
42.1%
Draw
25.7%
Away win
32.2%

xG 1.46 – 1.24
MD7Wed, 20 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Home

Sporting CP v Barcelona

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
24.3%
Draw
23.5%
Away win
52.2%

xG 1.12 – 1.75
MD8Wed, 27 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Away

Manchester City v Sporting CP

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
65.9%
Draw
20.2%
Away win
13.9%

xG 2.03 – 0.80

Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.

League-phase expectation

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points after 8 matches: 12.07; +0.42 vs pre-season
Expected league position 1 is best: 16.03; −1.08 vs pre-season

How far the club gets

reaches at least this stage

Top 8direct to the round of 16 12.0% −4.0 pp
Top 24reaches the knockout phase 89.1% +9.3 pp
Round of 16 56.4% +4.8 pp
Quarter-final 18.0% −0.5 pp
Semi-final 5.3% −0.5 pp
Final 1.3% −0.2 pp
Champion 0.3% −0.1 pp

Where the season ends

final outcome · sums to 100.0%

League phaseeliminated in the league phase 10.9% −9.3 pp
Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 32.7% +4.6 pp
Round of 16eliminated 38.3% +5.3 pp
Quarter-finaleliminated 12.7% −0.1 pp
Semi-finaleliminated 4.0% −0.3 pp
Finalrunner-up 0.9% −0.1 pp
Championwins the competition 0.3% −0.1 pp

Most likely end point: Round of 16.

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 3changes compared with the pre-season forecast, which also include the rating revision of 22 October 2026model outputs, not odds