BapLab

Sporting CP

ActivePORPot 2UEFA Champions League 2026-27League phase

Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.

OFFICIAL results as of 11 Sept 2026, 16:31 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 1

Season outlook

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons
Expected points
12.8
Expected league position
14.7
Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
20.8%
Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
90.0%

Competition state

DERIVEDLeague phase
18 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 2
OFFICIALThis club
1 of 8 played · 1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost
OFFICIALLast result
MD1 · Sporting CP 3–1 Galatasaray · Won
Next fixture
MD2 · Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · 18:45 CEST · Lens v Sporting CP

Model inputs

MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given
Strength rating
86 / 100
BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
European pedigree
4.0 / 5
European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
Home advantage
+0.29
Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.

League-phase fixtures

8 matches · kickoff in Central European time

  • MD1Wed, 9 Sept 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Home

    Sporting CP 3–1 Galatasaray

    OFFICIALFull time · Won

    MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable

    Home win
    54.5%
    Draw
    23.8%
    Away win
    21.6%

    xG 1.72 – 0.99

  • MD2Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · 18:45 CEST · Away

    Lens v Sporting CP

    Scheduled

    MODELCurrent forecast

    Home win
    35.7%
    Draw
    25.6%
    Away win
    38.7%

    xG 1.34 – 1.40

  • MD3Wed, 21 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Home

    Sporting CP v LASK

    Scheduled

    MODELCurrent forecast

    Home win
    75.9%
    Draw
    15.8%
    Away win
    8.2%

    xG 2.36 – 0.64

  • MD4Tue, 3 Nov 2026 · 18:45 CET · Away

    Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting CP

    Scheduled

    MODELCurrent forecast

    Home win
    26.8%
    Draw
    24.5%
    Away win
    48.7%

    xG 1.15 – 1.63

  • MD5Wed, 25 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Home

    Sporting CP v Manchester United

    Scheduled

    MODELCurrent forecast

    Home win
    38.2%
    Draw
    25.8%
    Away win
    36.1%

    xG 1.38 – 1.33

  • MD6Tue, 8 Dec 2026 · 21:00 CET · Away

    Roma v Sporting CP

    Scheduled

    MODELCurrent forecast

    Home win
    42.4%
    Draw
    25.7%
    Away win
    31.9%

    xG 1.46 – 1.23

  • MD7Wed, 20 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Home

    Sporting CP v Barcelona

    Scheduled

    MODELCurrent forecast

    Home win
    24.7%
    Draw
    23.7%
    Away win
    51.7%

    xG 1.13 – 1.74

  • MD8Wed, 27 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Away

    Manchester City v Sporting CP

    Scheduled

    MODELCurrent forecast

    Home win
    65.6%
    Draw
    20.3%
    Away win
    14.1%

    xG 2.02 – 0.81

Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.

League-phase expectation

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons
Expected points after 8 matches
12.77
+1.12 vs pre-season
Expected league position 1 is best
14.70
−2.41 vs pre-season

How far the club gets

reaches at least this stage
  • Top 8direct to the round of 16 20.8% +4.8 pp
  • Top 24reaches the knockout phase 90.0% +10.2 pp
  • Round of 16 60.7% +9.1 pp
  • Quarter-final 21.4% +2.9 pp
  • Semi-final 6.3% +0.6 pp
  • Final 1.6% +0.1 pp
  • Champion 0.4% +0.1 pp

Where the season ends

final outcome · sums to 100.0%
  • League phaseeliminated in the league phase 10.0% −10.2 pp
  • Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 29.3% +1.2 pp
  • Round of 16eliminated 39.2% +6.2 pp
  • Quarter-finaleliminated 15.1% +2.3 pp
  • Semi-finaleliminated 4.7% +0.4 pp
  • Finalrunner-up 1.1% +0.1 pp
  • Championwins the competition 0.4% +0.1 pp

Most likely end point: Round of 16.

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 1changes compared with the pre-season forecastmodel outputs, not odds