Manchester United
Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.
OFFICIAL results as of 11 Sept 2026, 16:31 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 1
Season outlook
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points
- 14.0
- Expected league position
- 11.9
- Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
- 35.4%
- Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
- 94.9%
Competition state
- DERIVEDLeague phase
- 18 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 2
- OFFICIALThis club
- 1 of 8 played · 1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost
- OFFICIALLast result
- MD1 · Manchester United 4–0 Sabah · Won
- Next fixture
- MD2 · Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Atlético Madrid v Manchester United
Model inputs
MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given- Strength rating
- 89 / 100
- BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
- European pedigree
- 5.0 / 5
- European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
- Home advantage
- +0.29
- Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.
League-phase fixtures
8 matches · kickoff in Central European time-
MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable
- Home win
- 90.2%
- Draw
- 7.5%
- Away win
- 2.3%
xG 3.22 – 0.40
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 46.6%
- Draw
- 25.3%
- Away win
- 28.1%
xG 1.55 – 1.14
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 29.3%
- Draw
- 25.0%
- Away win
- 45.7%
xG 1.20 – 1.57
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 59.2%
- Draw
- 22.6%
- Away win
- 18.2%
xG 1.83 – 0.91
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 38.2%
- Draw
- 25.8%
- Away win
- 36.1%
xG 1.38 – 1.33
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 61.4%
- Draw
- 21.9%
- Away win
- 16.7%
xG 1.89 – 0.87
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 29.4%
- Draw
- 24.9%
- Away win
- 45.7%
xG 1.22 – 1.58
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 27.4%
- Draw
- 24.5%
- Away win
- 48.0%
xG 1.17 – 1.63
Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.
League-phase expectation
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points after 8 matches
- 13.96
- +0.23 vs pre-season
- Expected league position 1 is best
- 11.89
- −0.42 vs pre-season
How far the club gets
reaches at least this stage- Top 8direct to the round of 16 35.4% +0.1 pp
- Top 24reaches the knockout phase 94.9% +2.0 pp
- Round of 16 77.1% +2.0 pp
- Quarter-final 38.4% +0.4 pp
- Semi-final 15.5% −0.1 pp
- Final 5.5% 0.0 pp
- Champion 2.0% −0.1 pp
Where the season ends
final outcome · sums to 100.0%- League phaseeliminated in the league phase 5.1% −2.0 pp
- Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 17.9% +0.1 pp
- Round of 16eliminated 38.7% +1.5 pp
- Quarter-finaleliminated 22.9% +0.5 pp
- Semi-finaleliminated 10.0% 0.0 pp
- Finalrunner-up 3.5% 0.0 pp
- Championwins the competition 2.0% −0.1 pp
Most likely end point: Round of 16.
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 1changes compared with the pre-season forecastmodel outputs, not odds