Manchester United
Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.
OFFICIAL results as of 22 Oct 2026, 05:02 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 3
Season outlook
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points
- 10.4
- Expected league position
- 19.9
- Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
- 4.2%
- Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
- 72.3%
Competition state
- DERIVEDLeague phase
- 54 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 4
- OFFICIALThis club
- 3 of 8 played · 1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
- OFFICIALLast result
- MD3 · Como 4–1 Manchester United · Lost
- Next fixture
- MD4 · Tue, 3 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Manchester United v Roma
Model inputs
MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given- Strength rating
- 86.5 / 100
- BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
- European pedigree
- 5.0 / 5
- European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
- Home advantage
- +0.29
- Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.
League-phase fixtures
8 matches · kickoff in Central European time-
MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable
- Home win
- 90.2%
- Draw
- 7.5%
- Away win
- 2.3%
xG 3.22 – 0.40
-
MD2Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Away
Atlético Madrid 2–0 Manchester United
OFFICIALFull time · Lost
MODELPre-match forecastArchived 13 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC
- Home win
- 46.6%
- Draw
- 25.3%
- Away win
- 28.1%
xG 1.55 – 1.14
-
MODELPre-match forecastArchived 20 Oct 2026, 12:32 UTC
- Home win
- 29.3%
- Draw
- 25.0%
- Away win
- 45.7%
xG 1.20 – 1.57
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 53.3%
- Draw
- 24.1%
- Away win
- 22.6%
xG 1.69 – 1.01
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 44.1%
- Draw
- 25.5%
- Away win
- 30.3%
xG 1.49 – 1.19
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 55.8%
- Draw
- 23.5%
- Away win
- 20.7%
xG 1.75 – 0.97
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 25.6%
- Draw
- 23.9%
- Away win
- 50.5%
xG 1.15 – 1.71
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 34.7%
- Draw
- 25.7%
- Away win
- 39.7%
xG 1.31 – 1.42
Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.
League-phase expectation
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points after 8 matches
- 10.36
- −3.37 vs pre-season
- Expected league position 1 is best
- 19.92
- +7.61 vs pre-season
How far the club gets
reaches at least this stage- Top 8direct to the round of 16 4.2% −31.1 pp
- Top 24reaches the knockout phase 72.3% −20.6 pp
- Round of 16 43.7% −31.4 pp
- Quarter-final 14.0% −24.0 pp
- Semi-final 4.4% −11.2 pp
- Final 1.2% −4.4 pp
- Champion 0.4% −1.7 pp
Where the season ends
final outcome · sums to 100.0%- League phaseeliminated in the league phase 27.7% +20.6 pp
- Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 28.6% +10.8 pp
- Round of 16eliminated 29.7% −7.4 pp
- Quarter-finaleliminated 9.6% −12.8 pp
- Semi-finaleliminated 3.2% −6.8 pp
- Finalrunner-up 0.8% −2.7 pp
- Championwins the competition 0.4% −1.7 pp
Most likely end point: Round of 16.
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 3changes compared with the pre-season forecast, which also include the rating revision of 22 October 2026model outputs, not odds