Atlético Madrid
Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.
OFFICIAL results as of 22 Oct 2026, 05:02 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 3
Season outlook
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points
- 13.5
- Expected league position
- 12.5
- Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
- 26.3%
- Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
- 96.4%
Competition state
- DERIVEDLeague phase
- 54 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 4
- OFFICIALThis club
- 3 of 8 played · 1 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost
- OFFICIALLast result
- MD3 · Stuttgart 1–1 Atlético Madrid · Drew
- Next fixture
- MD4 · Tue, 3 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Atlético Madrid v Bayern Munich
Model inputs
MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given- Strength rating
- 88.9 / 100
- BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
- European pedigree
- 4.5 / 5
- European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
- Home advantage
- +0.31
- Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.
League-phase fixtures
8 matches · kickoff in Central European time-
MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable
- Home win
- 50.8%
- Draw
- 24.6%
- Away win
- 24.6%
xG 1.63 – 1.06
-
MD2Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Home
Atlético Madrid 2–0 Manchester United
OFFICIALFull time · Won
MODELPre-match forecastArchived 13 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC
- Home win
- 46.6%
- Draw
- 25.3%
- Away win
- 28.1%
xG 1.55 – 1.14
-
MODELPre-match forecastArchived 20 Oct 2026, 12:32 UTC
- Home win
- 30.8%
- Draw
- 25.1%
- Away win
- 44.1%
xG 1.24 – 1.54
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 31.1%
- Draw
- 25.1%
- Away win
- 43.8%
xG 1.25 – 1.53
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 83.2%
- Draw
- 11.9%
- Away win
- 4.9%
xG 2.70 – 0.52
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 32.0%
- Draw
- 25.2%
- Away win
- 42.8%
xG 1.27 – 1.50
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 22.9%
- Draw
- 22.9%
- Away win
- 54.1%
xG 1.11 – 1.82
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 71.1%
- Draw
- 18.1%
- Away win
- 10.7%
xG 2.18 – 0.71
Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.
League-phase expectation
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points after 8 matches
- 13.51
- −0.19 vs pre-season
- Expected league position 1 is best
- 12.54
- +0.11 vs pre-season
How far the club gets
reaches at least this stage- Top 8direct to the round of 16 26.3% −8.4 pp
- Top 24reaches the knockout phase 96.4% +3.7 pp
- Round of 16 76.3% +1.6 pp
- Quarter-final 34.8% −2.8 pp
- Semi-final 13.4% −2.2 pp
- Final 4.6% −1.1 pp
- Champion 1.6% −0.4 pp
Where the season ends
final outcome · sums to 100.0%- League phaseeliminated in the league phase 3.6% −3.7 pp
- Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 20.1% +2.1 pp
- Round of 16eliminated 41.5% +4.4 pp
- Quarter-finaleliminated 21.4% −0.6 pp
- Semi-finaleliminated 8.8% −1.2 pp
- Finalrunner-up 3.0% −0.6 pp
- Championwins the competition 1.6% −0.4 pp
Most likely end point: Round of 16.
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 3changes compared with the pre-season forecast, which also include the rating revision of 22 October 2026model outputs, not odds