Atlético Madrid
Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.
OFFICIAL results as of 11 Sept 2026, 16:31 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 1
Season outlook
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points
- 12.7
- Expected league position
- 14.5
- Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
- 21.8%
- Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
- 90.2%
Competition state
- DERIVEDLeague phase
- 18 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 2
- OFFICIALThis club
- 1 of 8 played · 0 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost
- OFFICIALLast result
- MD1 · Liverpool 2–1 Atlético Madrid · Lost
- Next fixture
- MD2 · Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Atlético Madrid v Manchester United
Model inputs
MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given- Strength rating
- 89 / 100
- BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
- European pedigree
- 4.5 / 5
- European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
- Home advantage
- +0.31
- Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.
League-phase fixtures
8 matches · kickoff in Central European time-
MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable
- Home win
- 50.8%
- Draw
- 24.6%
- Away win
- 24.6%
xG 1.63 – 1.06
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 46.6%
- Draw
- 25.3%
- Away win
- 28.1%
xG 1.55 – 1.14
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 30.8%
- Draw
- 25.1%
- Away win
- 44.1%
xG 1.24 – 1.54
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 29.7%
- Draw
- 24.9%
- Away win
- 45.4%
xG 1.22 – 1.57
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 83.9%
- Draw
- 11.5%
- Away win
- 4.6%
xG 2.74 – 0.51
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 31.8%
- Draw
- 25.2%
- Away win
- 43.0%
xG 1.26 – 1.51
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 22.4%
- Draw
- 22.8%
- Away win
- 54.8%
xG 1.10 – 1.84
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 70.4%
- Draw
- 18.5%
- Away win
- 11.2%
xG 2.15 – 0.72
Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.
League-phase expectation
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points after 8 matches
- 12.70
- −0.99 vs pre-season
- Expected league position 1 is best
- 14.47
- +2.04 vs pre-season
How far the club gets
reaches at least this stage- Top 8direct to the round of 16 21.8% −12.9 pp
- Top 24reaches the knockout phase 90.2% −2.5 pp
- Round of 16 69.0% −5.6 pp
- Quarter-final 31.7% −5.9 pp
- Semi-final 12.8% −2.8 pp
- Final 4.5% −1.1 pp
- Champion 1.6% −0.4 pp
Where the season ends
final outcome · sums to 100.0%- League phaseeliminated in the league phase 9.8% +2.5 pp
- Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 21.1% +3.2 pp
- Round of 16eliminated 37.3% +0.2 pp
- Quarter-finaleliminated 18.9% −3.1 pp
- Semi-finaleliminated 8.3% −1.7 pp
- Finalrunner-up 2.9% −0.7 pp
- Championwins the competition 1.6% −0.4 pp
Most likely end point: Round of 16.
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 1changes compared with the pre-season forecastmodel outputs, not odds