Viking

ActiveNORPot 4UEFA Champions League 2026-27League phase

Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.

Club

OFFICIAL results as of 22 Oct 2026, 05:02 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 3

Season outlook

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points: 5.7
Expected league position: 30.4
Top 8 (direct to round of 16): <0.1%
Top 24 (reaches the knockouts): 11.7%

Competition state

DERIVEDLeague phase: 54 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 4
OFFICIALThis club: 3 of 8 played · 0 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
OFFICIALLast result: MD3 · Aston Villa 3–1 Viking · Lost
Next fixture: MD4 · Wed, 4 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Viking v Sabah

Model inputs

MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given

Strength rating: 69.4 / 100; BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
European pedigree: 1.5 / 5; European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
Home advantage: +0.31; Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.

League-phase fixtures

8 matches · kickoff in Central European time

MD1Wed, 9 Sept 2026 · 18:45 CEST · Away

Stuttgart 3–1 Viking

OFFICIALFull time · Lost

MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable

Home win
70.5%
Draw
18.4%
Away win
11.1%

xG 2.16 – 0.72
MD2Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Home

Viking 3–3 Bayern Munich

OFFICIALFull time · Drew

MODELPre-match forecastArchived 13 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC

Home win
5.7%
Draw
10.5%
Away win
83.8%

xG 0.75 – 3.14
MD3Wed, 21 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Away

Aston Villa 3–1 Viking

OFFICIALFull time · Lost

MODELPre-match forecastArchived 20 Oct 2026, 12:32 UTC

Home win
81.2%
Draw
13.0%
Away win
5.8%

xG 2.60 – 0.55
MD4Wed, 4 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Home

Viking v Sabah

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
50.6%
Draw
24.7%
Away win
24.7%

xG 1.63 – 1.06
MD5Wed, 25 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Away

Atlético Madrid v Viking

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
83.2%
Draw
11.9%
Away win
4.9%

xG 2.70 – 0.52
MD6Tue, 8 Dec 2026 · 18:45 CET · Home

Viking v Feyenoord

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
32.7%
Draw
25.3%
Away win
42.0%

xG 1.28 – 1.48
MD7Wed, 20 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Home

Viking v PSV

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
24.8%
Draw
23.6%
Away win
51.6%

xG 1.13 – 1.74
MD8Wed, 27 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Away

Napoli v Viking

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
72.4%
Draw
17.5%
Away win
10.0%

xG 2.22 – 0.69

Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.

League-phase expectation

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points after 8 matches: 5.73; −0.20 vs pre-season
Expected league position 1 is best: 30.37; +0.18 vs pre-season

How far the club gets

reaches at least this stage

Top 8direct to the round of 16 <0.1% −0.2 pp
Top 24reaches the knockout phase 11.7% −2.9 pp
Round of 16 1.6% −0.5 pp
Quarter-final <0.1% 0.0 pp
Semi-final <0.1% 0.0 pp
Final <0.1% 0.0 pp
Champion <0.1% 0.0 pp

Where the season ends

final outcome · sums to 100.0%

League phaseeliminated in the league phase 88.3% +2.9 pp
Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 10.1% −2.4 pp
Round of 16eliminated 1.5% −0.5 pp
Quarter-finaleliminated <0.1% 0.0 pp
Semi-finaleliminated <0.1% 0.0 pp
Finalrunner-up <0.1% 0.0 pp
Championwins the competition <0.1% 0.0 pp

Most likely end point: League phase.

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 3changes compared with the pre-season forecast, which also include the rating revision of 22 October 2026model outputs, not odds