Aston Villa
Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.
OFFICIAL results as of 22 Oct 2026, 05:02 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 3
Season outlook
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points
- 16.0
- Expected league position
- 7.8
- Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
- 62.4%
- Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
- 99.9%
Competition state
- DERIVEDLeague phase
- 54 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 4
- OFFICIALThis club
- 3 of 8 played · 3 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost
- OFFICIALLast result
- MD3 · Aston Villa 3–1 Viking · Won
- Next fixture
- MD4 · Tue, 3 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Barcelona v Aston Villa
Model inputs
MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given- Strength rating
- 88.9 / 100
- BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
- European pedigree
- 3.5 / 5
- European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
- Home advantage
- +0.29
- Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.
League-phase fixtures
8 matches · kickoff in Central European time-
MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable
- Home win
- 30.9%
- Draw
- 25.1%
- Away win
- 44.0%
xG 1.24 – 1.54
-
MODELPre-match forecastArchived 13 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC
- Home win
- 66.8%
- Draw
- 19.9%
- Away win
- 13.3%
xG 2.05 – 0.78
-
MODELPre-match forecastArchived 20 Oct 2026, 12:32 UTC
- Home win
- 81.2%
- Draw
- 13.0%
- Away win
- 5.8%
xG 2.60 – 0.55
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 63.0%
- Draw
- 21.3%
- Away win
- 15.6%
xG 1.94 – 0.84
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 33.4%
- Draw
- 25.3%
- Away win
- 41.2%
xG 1.30 – 1.47
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 28.7%
- Draw
- 24.7%
- Away win
- 46.6%
xG 1.20 – 1.60
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 50.8%
- Draw
- 24.6%
- Away win
- 24.6%
xG 1.63 – 1.06
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 20.2%
- Draw
- 21.8%
- Away win
- 58.0%
xG 1.06 – 1.94
Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.
League-phase expectation
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points after 8 matches
- 16.02
- +3.06 vs pre-season
- Expected league position 1 is best
- 7.79
- −6.25 vs pre-season
How far the club gets
reaches at least this stage- Top 8direct to the round of 16 62.4% +35.8 pp
- Top 24reaches the knockout phase 99.9% +10.6 pp
- Round of 16 89.4% +22.8 pp
- Quarter-final 48.2% +18.8 pp
- Semi-final 17.8% +7.0 pp
- Final 5.7% +2.4 pp
- Champion 1.9% +0.9 pp
Where the season ends
final outcome · sums to 100.0%- League phaseeliminated in the league phase <0.1% −10.6 pp
- Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 10.5% −12.2 pp
- Round of 16eliminated 41.2% +4.0 pp
- Quarter-finaleliminated 30.3% +11.7 pp
- Semi-finaleliminated 12.1% +4.7 pp
- Finalrunner-up 3.8% +1.5 pp
- Championwins the competition 1.9% +0.9 pp
Most likely end point: Round of 16.
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 3changes compared with the pre-season forecast, which also include the rating revision of 22 October 2026model outputs, not odds