Aston Villa
Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.
OFFICIAL results as of 11 Sept 2026, 16:31 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 1
Season outlook
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points
- 14.4
- Expected league position
- 11.4
- Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
- 37.1%
- Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
- 96.5%
Competition state
- DERIVEDLeague phase
- 18 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 2
- OFFICIALThis club
- 1 of 8 played · 1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost
- OFFICIALLast result
- MD1 · Club Brugge 2–3 Aston Villa · Won
- Next fixture
- MD2 · Wed, 14 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe
Model inputs
MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given- Strength rating
- 88 / 100
- BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
- European pedigree
- 3.5 / 5
- European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
- Home advantage
- +0.29
- Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.
League-phase fixtures
8 matches · kickoff in Central European time-
MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable
- Home win
- 30.9%
- Draw
- 25.1%
- Away win
- 44.0%
xG 1.24 – 1.54
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 66.8%
- Draw
- 19.9%
- Away win
- 13.3%
xG 2.05 – 0.78
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 81.2%
- Draw
- 13.0%
- Away win
- 5.8%
xG 2.60 – 0.55
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 65.0%
- Draw
- 20.6%
- Away win
- 14.4%
xG 1.99 – 0.81
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 35.9%
- Draw
- 25.6%
- Away win
- 38.5%
xG 1.34 – 1.40
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 26.7%
- Draw
- 24.3%
- Away win
- 49.0%
xG 1.17 – 1.66
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 48.2%
- Draw
- 25.1%
- Away win
- 26.7%
xG 1.58 – 1.11
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 23.7%
- Draw
- 23.2%
- Away win
- 53.1%
xG 1.12 – 1.79
Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.
League-phase expectation
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points after 8 matches
- 14.40
- +1.43 vs pre-season
- Expected league position 1 is best
- 11.38
- −2.66 vs pre-season
How far the club gets
reaches at least this stage- Top 8direct to the round of 16 37.1% +10.5 pp
- Top 24reaches the knockout phase 96.5% +7.1 pp
- Round of 16 76.4% +9.8 pp
- Quarter-final 34.3% +4.9 pp
- Semi-final 12.0% +1.2 pp
- Final 3.7% +0.3 pp
- Champion 1.2% +0.1 pp
Where the season ends
final outcome · sums to 100.0%- League phaseeliminated in the league phase 3.5% −7.1 pp
- Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 20.1% −2.7 pp
- Round of 16eliminated 42.1% +5.0 pp
- Quarter-finaleliminated 22.3% +3.7 pp
- Semi-finaleliminated 8.3% +0.9 pp
- Finalrunner-up 2.4% +0.2 pp
- Championwins the competition 1.2% +0.1 pp
Most likely end point: Round of 16.
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 1changes compared with the pre-season forecastmodel outputs, not odds