Barcelona

ActiveESPPot 1UEFA Champions League 2026-27League phase

Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.

Club

OFFICIAL results as of 22 Oct 2026, 05:02 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 3

Season outlook

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points: 16.7
Expected league position: 6.5
Top 8 (direct to round of 16): 74.5%
Top 24 (reaches the knockouts): 99.9%

Competition state

DERIVEDLeague phase: 54 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 4
OFFICIALThis club: 3 of 8 played · 2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost
OFFICIALLast result: MD3 · Paris Saint-Germain 4–2 Barcelona · Lost
Next fixture: MD4 · Tue, 3 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Barcelona v Aston Villa

Model inputs

MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given

Strength rating: 95.1 / 100; BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
European pedigree: 5.0 / 5; European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
Home advantage: +0.29; Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.

League-phase fixtures

8 matches · kickoff in Central European time

MD1Wed, 9 Sept 2026 · 18:45 CEST · Home

Barcelona 5–1 Feyenoord

OFFICIALFull time · Won

MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable

Home win
83.4%
Draw
11.7%
Away win
4.8%

xG 2.72 – 0.52
MD2Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Away

Galatasaray 1–4 Barcelona

OFFICIALFull time · Won

MODELPre-match forecastArchived 13 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC

Home win
20.2%
Draw
21.7%
Away win
58.0%

xG 1.06 – 1.95
MD3Tue, 20 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Away

Paris Saint-Germain 4–2 Barcelona

OFFICIALFull time · Lost

MODELPre-match forecastArchived 20 Oct 2026, 12:32 UTC

Home win
47.5%
Draw
25.1%
Away win
27.3%

xG 1.57 – 1.12
MD4Tue, 3 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Home

Barcelona v Aston Villa

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
63.0%
Draw
21.3%
Away win
15.6%

xG 1.94 – 0.84
MD5Wed, 25 Nov 2026 · 18:45 CET · Away

Sabah v Barcelona

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
5.2%
Draw
10.0%
Away win
84.8%

xG 0.72 – 3.20
MD6Tue, 8 Dec 2026 · 21:00 CET · Home

Barcelona v Manchester City

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
49.4%
Draw
24.9%
Away win
25.7%

xG 1.61 – 1.09
MD7Wed, 20 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Away

Sporting CP v Barcelona

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
24.3%
Draw
23.5%
Away win
52.2%

xG 1.12 – 1.75
MD8Wed, 27 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Home

Barcelona v Como

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
75.2%
Draw
16.2%
Away win
8.6%

xG 2.33 – 0.65

Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.

League-phase expectation

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points after 8 matches: 16.70; +0.18 vs pre-season
Expected league position 1 is best: 6.55; −0.35 vs pre-season

How far the club gets

reaches at least this stage

Top 8direct to the round of 16 74.5% +5.1 pp
Top 24reaches the knockout phase 99.9% +0.8 pp
Round of 16 96.8% +1.8 pp
Quarter-final 74.7% +3.3 pp
Semi-final 46.8% +0.9 pp
Final 26.8% −0.2 pp
Champion 14.3% −0.2 pp

Where the season ends

final outcome · sums to 100.0%

League phaseeliminated in the league phase 0.1% −0.8 pp
Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 3.0% −1.1 pp
Round of 16eliminated 22.2% −1.5 pp
Quarter-finaleliminated 27.9% +2.4 pp
Semi-finaleliminated 20.0% +1.1 pp
Finalrunner-up 12.5% 0.0 pp
Championwins the competition 14.3% −0.2 pp

Most likely end point: Quarter-final.

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 3changes compared with the pre-season forecast, which also include the rating revision of 22 October 2026model outputs, not odds