Barcelona

ActiveESPPot 1UEFA Champions League 2026-27League phase

Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.

Club

OFFICIAL results as of 11 Sept 2026, 16:31 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 1

Season outlook

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points: 16.9
Expected league position: 6.5
Top 8 (direct to round of 16): 72.4%
Top 24 (reaches the knockouts): 99.6%

Competition state

DERIVEDLeague phase: 18 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 2
OFFICIALThis club: 1 of 8 played · 1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost
OFFICIALLast result: MD1 · Barcelona 5–1 Feyenoord · Won
Next fixture: MD2 · Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Galatasaray v Barcelona

Model inputs

MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given

Strength rating: 95 / 100; BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
European pedigree: 5.0 / 5; European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
Home advantage: +0.29; Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.

League-phase fixtures

8 matches · kickoff in Central European time

MD1Wed, 9 Sept 2026 · 18:45 CEST · Home

Barcelona 5–1 Feyenoord

OFFICIALFull time · Won

MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable

Home win
83.4%
Draw
11.7%
Away win
4.8%

xG 2.72 – 0.52
MD2Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Away

Galatasaray v Barcelona

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
20.2%
Draw
21.7%
Away win
58.0%

xG 1.06 – 1.95
MD3Tue, 20 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Away

Paris Saint-Germain v Barcelona

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
47.5%
Draw
25.1%
Away win
27.3%

xG 1.57 – 1.12
MD4Tue, 3 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Home

Barcelona v Aston Villa

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
65.0%
Draw
20.6%
Away win
14.4%

xG 1.99 – 0.81
MD5Wed, 25 Nov 2026 · 18:45 CET · Away

Sabah v Barcelona

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
3.3%
Draw
7.2%
Away win
89.4%

xG 0.66 – 3.64
MD6Tue, 8 Dec 2026 · 21:00 CET · Home

Barcelona v Manchester City

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
49.2%
Draw
24.9%
Away win
25.9%

xG 1.60 – 1.09
MD7Wed, 20 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Away

Sporting CP v Barcelona

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
24.7%
Draw
23.7%
Away win
51.7%

xG 1.13 – 1.74
MD8Wed, 27 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Home

Barcelona v Como

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
76.2%
Draw
15.7%
Away win
8.1%

xG 2.38 – 0.63

Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.

League-phase expectation

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points after 8 matches: 16.89; +0.37 vs pre-season
Expected league position 1 is best: 6.48; −0.42 vs pre-season

How far the club gets

reaches at least this stage

Top 8direct to the round of 16 72.4% +3.0 pp
Top 24reaches the knockout phase 99.6% +0.5 pp
Round of 16 96.1% +1.1 pp
Quarter-final 73.0% +1.7 pp
Semi-final 46.5% +0.6 pp
Final 27.3% +0.3 pp
Champion 14.7% +0.2 pp

Where the season ends

final outcome · sums to 100.0%

League phaseeliminated in the league phase 0.4% −0.5 pp
Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 3.5% −0.5 pp
Round of 16eliminated 23.0% −0.6 pp
Quarter-finaleliminated 26.5% +1.0 pp
Semi-finaleliminated 19.3% +0.4 pp
Finalrunner-up 12.6% +0.1 pp
Championwins the competition 14.7% +0.2 pp

Most likely end point: Quarter-final.

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 1changes compared with the pre-season forecastmodel outputs, not odds