Como

ActiveITAPot 4UEFA Champions League 2026-27League phase

Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.

Club

OFFICIAL results as of 22 Oct 2026, 05:02 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 3

Season outlook

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points: 11.5
Expected league position: 16.8
Top 8 (direct to round of 16): 8.9%
Top 24 (reaches the knockouts): 88.1%

Competition state

DERIVEDLeague phase: 54 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 4
OFFICIALThis club: 3 of 8 played · 2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost
OFFICIALLast result: MD3 · Como 4–1 Manchester United · Won
Next fixture: MD4 · Wed, 4 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Lens v Como

Model inputs

MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given

Strength rating: 83.8 / 100; BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
European pedigree: 1.0 / 5; European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
Home advantage: +0.23; Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.

League-phase fixtures

8 matches · kickoff in Central European time

MD1Thu, 10 Sept 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Home

Como 4–1 RB Leipzig

OFFICIALFull time · Won

MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable

Home win
43.4%
Draw
25.6%
Away win
31.0%

xG 1.48 – 1.21
MD2Wed, 14 Oct 2026 · 18:45 CEST · Away

Feyenoord 3–2 Como

OFFICIALFull time · Lost

MODELPre-match forecastArchived 13 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC

Home win
38.5%
Draw
25.7%
Away win
35.8%

xG 1.39 – 1.33
MD3Wed, 21 Oct 2026 · 18:45 CEST · Home

Como 4–1 Manchester United

OFFICIALFull time · Won

MODELPre-match forecastArchived 20 Oct 2026, 12:32 UTC

Home win
29.3%
Draw
25.0%
Away win
45.7%

xG 1.20 – 1.57
MD4Wed, 4 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Away

Lens v Como

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
40.8%
Draw
25.7%
Away win
33.5%

xG 1.43 – 1.27
MD5Tue, 24 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Home

Como v AEK Athens

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
60.3%
Draw
22.1%
Away win
17.5%

xG 1.87 – 0.90
MD6Wed, 9 Dec 2026 · 18:45 CET · Away

Real Betis v Como

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
45.8%
Draw
25.4%
Away win
28.8%

xG 1.53 – 1.16
MD7Wed, 20 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Home

Como v Paris Saint-Germain

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
17.1%
Draw
20.6%
Away win
62.3%

xG 0.97 – 2.05
MD8Wed, 27 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Away

Barcelona v Como

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
75.2%
Draw
16.2%
Away win
8.6%

xG 2.33 – 0.65

Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.

League-phase expectation

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points after 8 matches: 11.55; +2.08 vs pre-season
Expected league position 1 is best: 16.77; −5.55 vs pre-season

How far the club gets

reaches at least this stage

Top 8direct to the round of 16 8.9% +3.8 pp
Top 24reaches the knockout phase 88.1% +31.3 pp
Round of 16 45.8% +19.3 pp
Quarter-final 10.6% +4.2 pp
Semi-final 2.2% +0.8 pp
Final 0.4% +0.2 pp
Champion <0.1% +0.1 pp

Where the season ends

final outcome · sums to 100.0%

League phaseeliminated in the league phase 11.9% −31.3 pp
Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 42.4% +12.0 pp
Round of 16eliminated 35.2% +15.1 pp
Quarter-finaleliminated 8.4% +3.4 pp
Semi-finaleliminated 1.8% +0.7 pp
Finalrunner-up 0.3% +0.1 pp
Championwins the competition <0.1% +0.1 pp

Most likely end point: Knockout play-off.

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 3changes compared with the pre-season forecast, which also include the rating revision of 22 October 2026model outputs, not odds