Lens

ActiveFRAPot 4UEFA Champions League 2026-27League phase

Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.

Club

OFFICIAL results as of 11 Sept 2026, 16:31 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 1

Season outlook

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points: 11.1
Expected league position: 18.7
Top 8 (direct to round of 16): 8.9%
Top 24 (reaches the knockouts): 76.2%

Competition state

DERIVEDLeague phase: 18 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 2
OFFICIALThis club: 1 of 8 played · 1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost
OFFICIALLast result: MD1 · Slavia Praha 2–3 Lens · Won
Next fixture: MD2 · Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · 18:45 CEST · Lens v Sporting CP

Model inputs

MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given

Strength rating: 80 / 100; BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
European pedigree: 2.5 / 5; European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
Home advantage: +0.34; Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.

League-phase fixtures

8 matches · kickoff in Central European time

MD1Thu, 10 Sept 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Away

Slavia Praha 2–3 Lens

OFFICIALFull time · Won

MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable

Home win
38.8%
Draw
25.7%
Away win
35.4%

xG 1.39 – 1.32
MD2Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · 18:45 CEST · Home

Lens v Sporting CP

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
35.7%
Draw
25.6%
Away win
38.7%

xG 1.34 – 1.40
MD3Wed, 21 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Away

Club Brugge v Lens

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
47.4%
Draw
25.2%
Away win
27.4%

xG 1.56 – 1.13
MD4Wed, 4 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Home

Lens v Como

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
43.1%
Draw
25.6%
Away win
31.3%

xG 1.48 – 1.22
MD5Tue, 24 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Away

RB Leipzig v Lens

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
50.4%
Draw
24.7%
Away win
24.9%

xG 1.63 – 1.07
MD6Wed, 9 Dec 2026 · 21:00 CET · Home

Lens v Bodø/Glimt

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
55.2%
Draw
23.7%
Away win
21.1%

xG 1.73 – 0.97
MD7Wed, 20 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Home

Lens v Manchester City

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
18.7%
Draw
21.1%
Away win
60.1%

xG 1.03 – 2.02
MD8Wed, 27 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Away

Liverpool v Lens

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
70.7%
Draw
18.4%
Away win
10.9%

xG 2.16 – 0.71

Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.

League-phase expectation

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points after 8 matches: 11.13; +1.68 vs pre-season
Expected league position 1 is best: 18.70; −3.62 vs pre-season

How far the club gets

reaches at least this stage

Top 8direct to the round of 16 8.9% +3.6 pp
Top 24reaches the knockout phase 76.2% +19.8 pp
Round of 16 34.9% +10.6 pp
Quarter-final 7.2% +1.9 pp
Semi-final 1.3% +0.4 pp
Final 0.2% +0.1 pp
Champion <0.1% 0.0 pp

Where the season ends

final outcome · sums to 100.0%

League phaseeliminated in the league phase 23.8% −19.8 pp
Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 41.3% +9.2 pp
Round of 16eliminated 27.7% +8.7 pp
Quarter-finaleliminated 5.9% +1.6 pp
Semi-finaleliminated 1.1% +0.3 pp
Finalrunner-up 0.1% 0.0 pp
Championwins the competition <0.1% 0.0 pp

Most likely end point: Knockout play-off.

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 1changes compared with the pre-season forecastmodel outputs, not odds