Lens

ActiveFRAPot 4UEFA Champions League 2026-27League phase

Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.

Club

OFFICIAL results as of 22 Oct 2026, 05:02 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 3

Season outlook

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points: 8.5
Expected league position: 25.0
Top 8 (direct to round of 16): 0.6%
Top 24 (reaches the knockouts): 42.6%

Competition state

DERIVEDLeague phase: 54 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 4
OFFICIALThis club: 3 of 8 played · 1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
OFFICIALLast result: MD3 · Club Brugge 3–0 Lens · Lost
Next fixture: MD4 · Wed, 4 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Lens v Como

Model inputs

MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given

Strength rating: 79.5 / 100; BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
European pedigree: 2.5 / 5; European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
Home advantage: +0.34; Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.

League-phase fixtures

8 matches · kickoff in Central European time

MD1Thu, 10 Sept 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Away

Slavia Praha 2–3 Lens

OFFICIALFull time · Won

MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable

Home win
38.8%
Draw
25.7%
Away win
35.4%

xG 1.39 – 1.32
MD2Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · 18:45 CEST · Home

Lens 0–2 Sporting CP

OFFICIALFull time · Lost

MODELPre-match forecastArchived 13 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC

Home win
35.7%
Draw
25.6%
Away win
38.7%

xG 1.34 – 1.40
MD3Wed, 21 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Away

Club Brugge 3–0 Lens

OFFICIALFull time · Lost

MODELPre-match forecastArchived 20 Oct 2026, 12:32 UTC

Home win
47.4%
Draw
25.2%
Away win
27.4%

xG 1.56 – 1.13
MD4Wed, 4 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Home

Lens v Como

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
40.8%
Draw
25.7%
Away win
33.5%

xG 1.43 – 1.27
MD5Tue, 24 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Away

RB Leipzig v Lens

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
50.6%
Draw
24.6%
Away win
24.8%

xG 1.63 – 1.07
MD6Wed, 9 Dec 2026 · 21:00 CET · Home

Lens v Bodø/Glimt

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
54.0%
Draw
24.0%
Away win
22.1%

xG 1.70 – 1.00
MD7Wed, 20 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Home

Lens v Manchester City

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
18.1%
Draw
20.8%
Away win
61.1%

xG 1.02 – 2.05
MD8Wed, 27 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Away

Liverpool v Lens

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
73.6%
Draw
17.1%
Away win
9.4%

xG 2.25 – 0.66

Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.

League-phase expectation

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points after 8 matches: 8.54; −0.90 vs pre-season
Expected league position 1 is best: 25.05; +2.73 vs pre-season

How far the club gets

reaches at least this stage

Top 8direct to the round of 16 0.6% −4.7 pp
Top 24reaches the knockout phase 42.6% −13.8 pp
Round of 16 15.1% −9.2 pp
Quarter-final 2.5% −2.8 pp
Semi-final 0.4% −0.5 pp
Final <0.1% −0.1 pp
Champion <0.1% 0.0 pp

Where the season ends

final outcome · sums to 100.0%

League phaseeliminated in the league phase 57.4% +13.8 pp
Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 27.5% −4.6 pp
Round of 16eliminated 12.6% −6.5 pp
Quarter-finaleliminated 2.1% −2.3 pp
Semi-finaleliminated 0.4% −0.4 pp
Finalrunner-up <0.1% −0.1 pp
Championwins the competition <0.1% 0.0 pp

Most likely end point: League phase.

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 3changes compared with the pre-season forecast, which also include the rating revision of 22 October 2026model outputs, not odds