RB Leipzig
Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.
OFFICIAL results as of 11 Sept 2026, 16:31 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 1
Season outlook
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points
- 8.7
- Expected league position
- 24.2
- Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
- 1.9%
- Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
- 48.0%
Competition state
- DERIVEDLeague phase
- 18 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 2
- OFFICIALThis club
- 1 of 8 played · 0 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost
- OFFICIALLast result
- MD1 · Como 4–1 RB Leipzig · Lost
- Next fixture
- MD2 · Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · RB Leipzig v PSV
Model inputs
MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given- Strength rating
- 83 / 100
- BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
- European pedigree
- 3.0 / 5
- European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
- Home advantage
- +0.24
- Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.
League-phase fixtures
8 matches · kickoff in Central European time-
MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable
- Home win
- 43.4%
- Draw
- 25.6%
- Away win
- 31.0%
xG 1.48 – 1.21
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 46.0%
- Draw
- 25.3%
- Away win
- 28.6%
xG 1.53 – 1.15
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 73.0%
- Draw
- 17.2%
- Away win
- 9.8%
xG 2.25 – 0.69
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 20.4%
- Draw
- 22.2%
- Away win
- 57.4%
xG 1.04 – 1.90
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 50.4%
- Draw
- 24.7%
- Away win
- 24.9%
xG 1.63 – 1.07
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 61.4%
- Draw
- 21.9%
- Away win
- 16.7%
xG 1.89 – 0.87
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 55.2%
- Draw
- 23.6%
- Away win
- 21.2%
xG 1.74 – 0.98
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 37.6%
- Draw
- 25.7%
- Away win
- 36.7%
xG 1.37 – 1.35
Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.
League-phase expectation
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points after 8 matches
- 8.65
- −1.19 vs pre-season
- Expected league position 1 is best
- 24.19
- +2.79 vs pre-season
How far the club gets
reaches at least this stage- Top 8direct to the round of 16 1.9% −4.4 pp
- Top 24reaches the knockout phase 48.0% −13.4 pp
- Round of 16 21.0% −9.0 pp
- Quarter-final 4.8% −2.9 pp
- Semi-final 1.1% −0.7 pp
- Final 0.2% −0.1 pp
- Champion <0.1% 0.0 pp
Where the season ends
final outcome · sums to 100.0%- League phaseeliminated in the league phase 52.0% +13.4 pp
- Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 27.0% −4.4 pp
- Round of 16eliminated 16.2% −6.1 pp
- Quarter-finaleliminated 3.8% −2.2 pp
- Semi-finaleliminated 0.9% −0.6 pp
- Finalrunner-up 0.1% −0.1 pp
- Championwins the competition <0.1% 0.0 pp
Most likely end point: League phase.
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 1changes compared with the pre-season forecastmodel outputs, not odds