RB Leipzig
Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.
OFFICIAL results as of 22 Oct 2026, 05:02 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 3
Season outlook
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points
- 9.6
- Expected league position
- 22.6
- Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
- 1.7%
- Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
- 57.8%
Competition state
- DERIVEDLeague phase
- 54 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 4
- OFFICIALThis club
- 3 of 8 played · 1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
- OFFICIALLast result
- MD3 · Real Madrid 4–1 RB Leipzig · Lost
- Next fixture
- MD4 · Wed, 4 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · RB Leipzig v Manchester City
Model inputs
MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given- Strength rating
- 82.6 / 100
- BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
- European pedigree
- 3.0 / 5
- European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
- Home advantage
- +0.24
- Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.
League-phase fixtures
8 matches · kickoff in Central European time-
MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable
- Home win
- 43.4%
- Draw
- 25.6%
- Away win
- 31.0%
xG 1.48 – 1.21
-
MODELPre-match forecastArchived 13 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC
- Home win
- 46.0%
- Draw
- 25.3%
- Away win
- 28.6%
xG 1.53 – 1.15
-
MODELPre-match forecastArchived 20 Oct 2026, 12:32 UTC
- Home win
- 73.0%
- Draw
- 17.2%
- Away win
- 9.8%
xG 2.25 – 0.69
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 19.9%
- Draw
- 22.0%
- Away win
- 58.1%
xG 1.03 – 1.92
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 50.6%
- Draw
- 24.6%
- Away win
- 24.8%
xG 1.63 – 1.07
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 55.8%
- Draw
- 23.5%
- Away win
- 20.7%
xG 1.75 – 0.97
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 53.4%
- Draw
- 24.1%
- Away win
- 22.6%
xG 1.70 – 1.01
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 38.1%
- Draw
- 25.7%
- Away win
- 36.2%
xG 1.38 – 1.34
Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.
League-phase expectation
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points after 8 matches
- 9.62
- −0.22 vs pre-season
- Expected league position 1 is best
- 22.65
- +1.25 vs pre-season
How far the club gets
reaches at least this stage- Top 8direct to the round of 16 1.7% −4.6 pp
- Top 24reaches the knockout phase 57.8% −3.6 pp
- Round of 16 25.1% −4.9 pp
- Quarter-final 5.0% −2.7 pp
- Semi-final 1.0% −0.7 pp
- Final 0.2% −0.2 pp
- Champion <0.1% −0.1 pp
Where the season ends
final outcome · sums to 100.0%- League phaseeliminated in the league phase 42.2% +3.6 pp
- Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 32.7% +1.3 pp
- Round of 16eliminated 20.0% −2.2 pp
- Quarter-finaleliminated 4.0% −1.9 pp
- Semi-finaleliminated 0.8% −0.6 pp
- Finalrunner-up 0.1% −0.1 pp
- Championwins the competition <0.1% −0.1 pp
Most likely end point: League phase.
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 3changes compared with the pre-season forecast, which also include the rating revision of 22 October 2026model outputs, not odds