Real Madrid
Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.
OFFICIAL results as of 22 Oct 2026, 05:02 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 3
Season outlook
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points
- 19.9
- Expected league position
- 3.1
- Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
- 96.6%
- Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
- 100.0%
Competition state
- DERIVEDLeague phase
- 54 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 4
- OFFICIALThis club
- 3 of 8 played · 3 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost
- OFFICIALLast result
- MD3 · Real Madrid 4–1 RB Leipzig · Won
- Next fixture
- MD4 · Wed, 4 Nov 2026 · 18:45 CET · AEK Athens v Real Madrid
Model inputs
MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given- Strength rating
- 94.9 / 100
- BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
- European pedigree
- 5.0 / 5
- European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
- Home advantage
- +0.28
- Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.
League-phase fixtures
8 matches · kickoff in Central European time-
MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable
- Home win
- 58.8%
- Draw
- 22.7%
- Away win
- 18.5%
xG 1.82 – 0.92
-
MODELPre-match forecastArchived 13 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC
- Home win
- 23.6%
- Draw
- 23.3%
- Away win
- 53.1%
xG 1.11 – 1.79
-
MODELPre-match forecastArchived 20 Oct 2026, 12:32 UTC
- Home win
- 73.0%
- Draw
- 17.2%
- Away win
- 9.8%
xG 2.25 – 0.69
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 11.5%
- Draw
- 16.4%
- Away win
- 72.1%
xG 0.89 – 2.49
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 76.1%
- Draw
- 15.7%
- Away win
- 8.2%
xG 2.38 – 0.64
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 47.7%
- Draw
- 25.1%
- Away win
- 27.2%
xG 1.57 – 1.12
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 90.5%
- Draw
- 7.2%
- Away win
- 2.2%
xG 3.25 – 0.40
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 11.8%
- Draw
- 17.3%
- Away win
- 70.9%
xG 0.85 – 2.35
Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.
League-phase expectation
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points after 8 matches
- 19.92
- +2.99 vs pre-season
- Expected league position 1 is best
- 3.12
- −3.18 vs pre-season
How far the club gets
reaches at least this stage- Top 8direct to the round of 16 96.6% +22.7 pp
- Top 24reaches the knockout phase 100.0% +0.7 pp
- Round of 16 99.6% +4.3 pp
- Quarter-final 80.2% +10.9 pp
- Semi-final 51.2% +9.1 pp
- Final 29.0% +6.1 pp
- Champion 15.2% +3.7 pp
Where the season ends
final outcome · sums to 100.0%- League phaseeliminated in the league phase <0.1% −0.7 pp
- Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 0.4% −3.6 pp
- Round of 16eliminated 19.4% −6.6 pp
- Quarter-finaleliminated 29.0% +1.8 pp
- Semi-finaleliminated 22.2% +3.0 pp
- Finalrunner-up 13.8% +2.4 pp
- Championwins the competition 15.2% +3.7 pp
Most likely end point: Quarter-final.
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 3changes compared with the pre-season forecast, which also include the rating revision of 22 October 2026model outputs, not odds