Real Madrid
Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.
OFFICIAL results as of 11 Sept 2026, 16:31 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 1
Season outlook
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points
- 17.9
- Expected league position
- 5.3
- Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
- 81.5%
- Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
- 99.8%
Competition state
- DERIVEDLeague phase
- 18 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 2
- OFFICIALThis club
- 1 of 8 played · 1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost
- OFFICIALLast result
- MD1 · Real Madrid 2–1 Inter · Won
- Next fixture
- MD2 · Wed, 14 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Roma v Real Madrid
Model inputs
MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given- Strength rating
- 94 / 100
- BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
- European pedigree
- 5.0 / 5
- European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
- Home advantage
- +0.28
- Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.
League-phase fixtures
8 matches · kickoff in Central European time-
MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable
- Home win
- 58.8%
- Draw
- 22.7%
- Away win
- 18.5%
xG 1.82 – 0.92
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 23.6%
- Draw
- 23.3%
- Away win
- 53.1%
xG 1.11 – 1.79
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 73.0%
- Draw
- 17.2%
- Away win
- 9.8%
xG 2.25 – 0.69
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 13.0%
- Draw
- 17.5%
- Away win
- 69.5%
xG 0.92 – 2.37
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 74.2%
- Draw
- 16.7%
- Away win
- 9.1%
xG 2.30 – 0.67
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 48.2%
- Draw
- 25.1%
- Away win
- 26.7%
xG 1.58 – 1.11
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 89.8%
- Draw
- 7.7%
- Away win
- 2.5%
xG 3.19 – 0.41
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 12.5%
- Draw
- 17.8%
- Away win
- 69.8%
xG 0.86 – 2.31
Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.
League-phase expectation
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points after 8 matches
- 17.93
- +1.01 vs pre-season
- Expected league position 1 is best
- 5.29
- −1.01 vs pre-season
How far the club gets
reaches at least this stage- Top 8direct to the round of 16 81.5% +7.7 pp
- Top 24reaches the knockout phase 99.8% +0.5 pp
- Round of 16 97.1% +1.8 pp
- Quarter-final 72.5% +3.2 pp
- Semi-final 43.7% +1.6 pp
- Final 23.3% +0.4 pp
- Champion 11.7% +0.2 pp
Where the season ends
final outcome · sums to 100.0%- League phaseeliminated in the league phase 0.2% −0.5 pp
- Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 2.8% −1.3 pp
- Round of 16eliminated 24.5% −1.4 pp
- Quarter-finaleliminated 28.8% +1.6 pp
- Semi-finaleliminated 20.4% +1.2 pp
- Finalrunner-up 11.7% +0.3 pp
- Championwins the competition 11.7% +0.2 pp
Most likely end point: Quarter-final.
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 1changes compared with the pre-season forecastmodel outputs, not odds