LASK

ActiveAUTPot 4UEFA Champions League 2026-27League phase

Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.

Club

OFFICIAL results as of 22 Oct 2026, 05:02 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 3

Season outlook

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points: 8.1
Expected league position: 26.2
Top 8 (direct to round of 16): 0.2%
Top 24 (reaches the knockouts): 36.3%

Competition state

DERIVEDLeague phase: 54 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 4
OFFICIALThis club: 3 of 8 played · 1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
OFFICIALLast result: MD3 · Sporting CP 2–3 LASK · Won
Next fixture: MD4 · Tue, 3 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · LASK v Slovan Bratislava

Model inputs

MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given

Strength rating: 70.5 / 100; BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
European pedigree: 2.0 / 5; European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
Home advantage: +0.28; Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.

League-phase fixtures

8 matches · kickoff in Central European time

MD1Tue, 8 Sept 2026 · 18:45 CEST · Away

AEK Athens 1–0 LASK

OFFICIALFull time · Lost

MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable

Home win
57.3%
Draw
23.2%
Away win
19.5%

xG 1.78 – 0.94
MD2Wed, 14 Oct 2026 · 18:45 CEST · Home

LASK 3–6 Liverpool

OFFICIALFull time · Lost

MODELPre-match forecastArchived 13 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC

Home win
12.4%
Draw
17.3%
Away win
70.3%

xG 0.89 – 2.37
MD3Wed, 21 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Away

Sporting CP 2–3 LASK

OFFICIALFull time · Won

MODELPre-match forecastArchived 20 Oct 2026, 12:32 UTC

Home win
75.9%
Draw
15.8%
Away win
8.2%

xG 2.36 – 0.64
MD4Tue, 3 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Home

LASK v Slovan Bratislava

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
52.1%
Draw
24.3%
Away win
23.5%

xG 1.67 – 1.03
MD5Tue, 24 Nov 2026 · 18:45 CET · Away

Bodø/Glimt v LASK

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
58.2%
Draw
22.9%
Away win
18.9%

xG 1.81 – 0.92
MD6Wed, 9 Dec 2026 · 21:00 CET · Home

LASK v Fenerbahçe

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
33.4%
Draw
25.5%
Away win
41.1%

xG 1.29 – 1.46
MD7Tue, 19 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Away

Real Madrid v LASK

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
90.5%
Draw
7.2%
Away win
2.2%

xG 3.25 – 0.40
MD8Wed, 27 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Home

LASK v Porto

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
27.3%
Draw
24.4%
Away win
48.3%

xG 1.17 – 1.64

Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.

League-phase expectation

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points after 8 matches: 8.07; +1.50 vs pre-season
Expected league position 1 is best: 26.15; −2.67 vs pre-season

How far the club gets

reaches at least this stage

Top 8direct to the round of 16 0.2% −0.2 pp
Top 24reaches the knockout phase 36.3% +14.4 pp
Round of 16 5.6% +2.1 pp
Quarter-final 0.3% +0.1 pp
Semi-final <0.1% 0.0 pp
Final <0.1% 0.0 pp
Champion <0.1% 0.0 pp

Where the season ends

final outcome · sums to 100.0%

League phaseeliminated in the league phase 63.7% −14.4 pp
Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 30.7% +12.3 pp
Round of 16eliminated 5.3% +2.0 pp
Quarter-finaleliminated 0.3% +0.1 pp
Semi-finaleliminated <0.1% 0.0 pp
Finalrunner-up <0.1% 0.0 pp
Championwins the competition <0.1% 0.0 pp

Most likely end point: League phase.

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 3changes compared with the pre-season forecast, which also include the rating revision of 22 October 2026model outputs, not odds