BapLab

AEK Athens

ActiveGREPot 4UEFA Champions League 2026-27League phase

Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.

OFFICIAL results as of 11 Sept 2026, 16:31 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 1

Season outlook

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons
Expected points
8.7
Expected league position
24.5
Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
1.6%
Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
45.4%

Competition state

DERIVEDLeague phase
18 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 2
OFFICIALThis club
1 of 8 played · 1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost
OFFICIALLast result
MD1 · AEK Athens 1–0 LASK · Won
Next fixture
MD2 · Wed, 14 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Shakhtar Donetsk v AEK Athens

Model inputs

MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given
Strength rating
75 / 100
BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
European pedigree
2.5 / 5
European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
Home advantage
+0.34
Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.

League-phase fixtures

8 matches · kickoff in Central European time

  • MD1Tue, 8 Sept 2026 · 18:45 CEST · Home

    AEK Athens 1–0 LASK

    OFFICIALFull time · Won

    MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable

    Home win
    57.3%
    Draw
    23.2%
    Away win
    19.5%

    xG 1.78 – 0.94

  • MD2Wed, 14 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Away

    Shakhtar Donetsk v AEK Athens

    Scheduled

    MODELCurrent forecast

    Home win
    47.1%
    Draw
    25.2%
    Away win
    27.8%

    xG 1.56 – 1.14

  • MD3Tue, 20 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Away

    Manchester City v AEK Athens

    Scheduled

    MODELCurrent forecast

    Home win
    83.6%
    Draw
    11.6%
    Away win
    4.8%

    xG 2.75 – 0.53

  • MD4Wed, 4 Nov 2026 · 18:45 CET · Home

    AEK Athens v Real Madrid

    Scheduled

    MODELCurrent forecast

    Home win
    13.0%
    Draw
    17.5%
    Away win
    69.5%

    xG 0.92 – 2.37

  • MD5Tue, 24 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Away

    Como v AEK Athens

    Scheduled

    MODELCurrent forecast

    Home win
    58.3%
    Draw
    22.8%
    Away win
    18.9%

    xG 1.82 – 0.93

  • MD6Tue, 8 Dec 2026 · 21:00 CET · Home

    AEK Athens v Galatasaray

    Scheduled

    MODELCurrent forecast

    Home win
    34.8%
    Draw
    25.5%
    Away win
    39.6%

    xG 1.32 – 1.43

  • MD7Tue, 19 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Home

    AEK Athens v Roma

    Scheduled

    MODELCurrent forecast

    Home win
    31.5%
    Draw
    25.1%
    Away win
    43.3%

    xG 1.26 – 1.52

  • MD8Wed, 27 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Away

    Borussia Dortmund v AEK Athens

    Scheduled

    MODELCurrent forecast

    Home win
    72.0%
    Draw
    17.8%
    Away win
    10.2%

    xG 2.20 – 0.69

Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.

League-phase expectation

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons
Expected points after 8 matches
8.69
+1.06 vs pre-season
Expected league position 1 is best
24.48
−2.06 vs pre-season

How far the club gets

reaches at least this stage
  • Top 8direct to the round of 16 1.6% +0.3 pp
  • Top 24reaches the knockout phase 45.4% +11.3 pp
  • Round of 16 12.4% +3.0 pp
  • Quarter-final 1.4% +0.2 pp
  • Semi-final 0.2% 0.0 pp
  • Final <0.1% 0.0 pp
  • Champion <0.1% 0.0 pp

Where the season ends

final outcome · sums to 100.0%
  • League phaseeliminated in the league phase 54.6% −11.3 pp
  • Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 33.1% +8.3 pp
  • Round of 16eliminated 11.0% +2.8 pp
  • Quarter-finaleliminated 1.3% +0.2 pp
  • Semi-finaleliminated 0.1% 0.0 pp
  • Finalrunner-up <0.1% 0.0 pp
  • Championwins the competition <0.1% 0.0 pp

Most likely end point: League phase.

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 1changes compared with the pre-season forecastmodel outputs, not odds