AEK Athens

ActiveGREPot 4UEFA Champions League 2026-27League phase

Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.

Club

OFFICIAL results as of 22 Oct 2026, 05:02 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 3

Season outlook

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points: 7.2
Expected league position: 28.2
Top 8 (direct to round of 16): 0.1%
Top 24 (reaches the knockouts): 23.1%

Competition state

DERIVEDLeague phase: 54 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 4
OFFICIALThis club: 3 of 8 played · 1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
OFFICIALLast result: MD3 · Manchester City 5–1 AEK Athens · Lost
Next fixture: MD4 · Wed, 4 Nov 2026 · 18:45 CET · AEK Athens v Real Madrid

Model inputs

MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given

Strength rating: 74.7 / 100; BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
European pedigree: 2.5 / 5; European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
Home advantage: +0.34; Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.

League-phase fixtures

8 matches · kickoff in Central European time

MD1Tue, 8 Sept 2026 · 18:45 CEST · Home

AEK Athens 1–0 LASK

OFFICIALFull time · Won

MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable

Home win
57.3%
Draw
23.2%
Away win
19.5%

xG 1.78 – 0.94
MD2Wed, 14 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Away

Shakhtar Donetsk 3–1 AEK Athens

OFFICIALFull time · Lost

MODELPre-match forecastArchived 13 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC

Home win
47.1%
Draw
25.2%
Away win
27.8%

xG 1.56 – 1.14
MD3Tue, 20 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Away

Manchester City 5–1 AEK Athens

OFFICIALFull time · Lost

MODELPre-match forecastArchived 20 Oct 2026, 12:32 UTC

Home win
83.6%
Draw
11.6%
Away win
4.8%

xG 2.75 – 0.53
MD4Wed, 4 Nov 2026 · 18:45 CET · Home

AEK Athens v Real Madrid

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
11.5%
Draw
16.4%
Away win
72.1%

xG 0.89 – 2.49
MD5Tue, 24 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Away

Como v AEK Athens

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
60.3%
Draw
22.1%
Away win
17.5%

xG 1.87 – 0.90
MD6Tue, 8 Dec 2026 · 21:00 CET · Home

AEK Athens v Galatasaray

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
34.7%
Draw
25.5%
Away win
39.8%

xG 1.32 – 1.43
MD7Tue, 19 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Home

AEK Athens v Roma

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
31.5%
Draw
25.1%
Away win
43.3%

xG 1.26 – 1.52
MD8Wed, 27 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Away

Borussia Dortmund v AEK Athens

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
72.3%
Draw
17.7%
Away win
10.0%

xG 2.21 – 0.68

Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.

League-phase expectation

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points after 8 matches: 7.22; −0.42 vs pre-season
Expected league position 1 is best: 28.18; +1.64 vs pre-season

How far the club gets

reaches at least this stage

Top 8direct to the round of 16 0.1% −1.2 pp
Top 24reaches the knockout phase 23.1% −11.0 pp
Round of 16 5.6% −3.8 pp
Quarter-final 0.6% −0.6 pp
Semi-final <0.1% −0.1 pp
Final <0.1% 0.0 pp
Champion <0.1% 0.0 pp

Where the season ends

final outcome · sums to 100.0%

League phaseeliminated in the league phase 76.9% +11.0 pp
Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 17.5% −7.2 pp
Round of 16eliminated 5.0% −3.1 pp
Quarter-finaleliminated 0.5% −0.5 pp
Semi-finaleliminated <0.1% −0.1 pp
Finalrunner-up <0.1% 0.0 pp
Championwins the competition <0.1% 0.0 pp

Most likely end point: League phase.

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 3changes compared with the pre-season forecast, which also include the rating revision of 22 October 2026model outputs, not odds