Shakhtar Donetsk

ActiveUKRPot 3UEFA Champions League 2026-27League phase

Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.

Club

OFFICIAL results as of 22 Oct 2026, 05:02 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 3

Season outlook

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points: 9.8
Expected league position: 21.4
Top 8 (direct to round of 16): 2.3%
Top 24 (reaches the knockouts): 64.3%

Competition state

DERIVEDLeague phase: 54 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 4
OFFICIALThis club: 3 of 8 played · 1 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost
OFFICIALLast result: MD3 · Inter 1–0 Shakhtar Donetsk · Lost
Next fixture: MD4 · Tue, 3 Nov 2026 · 18:45 CET · Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting CP

Model inputs

MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given

Strength rating: 77.6 / 100; BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
European pedigree: 4.0 / 5; European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
Home advantage: +0.18; Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.

League-phase fixtures

8 matches · kickoff in Central European time

MD1Thu, 10 Sept 2026 · 18:45 CEST · Away

PSV 1–1 Shakhtar Donetsk

OFFICIALFull time · Drew

MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable

Home win
56.4%
Draw
23.4%
Away win
20.2%

xG 1.76 – 0.95
MD2Wed, 14 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Home

Shakhtar Donetsk 3–1 AEK Athens

OFFICIALFull time · Won

MODELPre-match forecastArchived 13 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC

Home win
47.1%
Draw
25.2%
Away win
27.8%

xG 1.56 – 1.14
MD3Wed, 21 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Away

Inter 1–0 Shakhtar Donetsk

OFFICIALFull time · Lost

MODELPre-match forecastArchived 20 Oct 2026, 12:32 UTC

Home win
71.3%
Draw
18.0%
Away win
10.7%

xG 2.19 – 0.71
MD4Tue, 3 Nov 2026 · 18:45 CET · Home

Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting CP

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
28.0%
Draw
24.8%
Away win
47.3%

xG 1.17 – 1.60
MD5Wed, 25 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Home

Shakhtar Donetsk v Fenerbahçe

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
43.6%
Draw
25.6%
Away win
30.9%

xG 1.48 – 1.21
MD6Wed, 9 Dec 2026 · 18:45 CET · Away

Slovan Bratislava v Shakhtar Donetsk

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
27.6%
Draw
24.5%
Away win
47.9%

xG 1.18 – 1.64
MD7Wed, 20 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Away

RB Leipzig v Shakhtar Donetsk

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
53.4%
Draw
24.1%
Away win
22.6%

xG 1.70 – 1.01
MD8Wed, 27 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Home

Shakhtar Donetsk v Real Madrid

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
11.8%
Draw
17.3%
Away win
70.9%

xG 0.85 – 2.35

Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.

League-phase expectation

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points after 8 matches: 9.78; +1.20 vs pre-season
Expected league position 1 is best: 21.44; −2.93 vs pre-season

How far the club gets

reaches at least this stage

Top 8direct to the round of 16 2.3% −0.6 pp
Top 24reaches the knockout phase 64.3% +18.4 pp
Round of 16 20.8% +6.1 pp
Quarter-final 2.5% +0.4 pp
Semi-final 0.3% +0.1 pp
Final <0.1% 0.0 pp
Champion <0.1% 0.0 pp

Where the season ends

final outcome · sums to 100.0%

League phaseeliminated in the league phase 35.7% −18.4 pp
Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 43.5% +12.3 pp
Round of 16eliminated 18.2% +5.7 pp
Quarter-finaleliminated 2.2% +0.4 pp
Semi-finaleliminated 0.3% +0.1 pp
Finalrunner-up <0.1% 0.0 pp
Championwins the competition <0.1% 0.0 pp

Most likely end point: Knockout play-off.

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 3changes compared with the pre-season forecast, which also include the rating revision of 22 October 2026model outputs, not odds