Shakhtar Donetsk

ActiveUKRPot 3UEFA Champions League 2026-27League phase

Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.

Club

OFFICIAL results as of 11 Sept 2026, 16:31 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 1

Season outlook

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points: 8.7
Expected league position: 23.8
Top 8 (direct to round of 16): 2.1%
Top 24 (reaches the knockouts): 49.7%

Competition state

DERIVEDLeague phase: 18 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 2
OFFICIALThis club: 1 of 8 played · 0 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost
OFFICIALLast result: MD1 · PSV 1–1 Shakhtar Donetsk · Drew
Next fixture: MD2 · Wed, 14 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Shakhtar Donetsk v AEK Athens

Model inputs

MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given

Strength rating: 77 / 100; BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
European pedigree: 4.0 / 5; European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
Home advantage: +0.18; Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.

League-phase fixtures

8 matches · kickoff in Central European time

MD1Thu, 10 Sept 2026 · 18:45 CEST · Away

PSV 1–1 Shakhtar Donetsk

OFFICIALFull time · Drew

MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable

Home win
56.4%
Draw
23.4%
Away win
20.2%

xG 1.76 – 0.95
MD2Wed, 14 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Home

Shakhtar Donetsk v AEK Athens

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
47.1%
Draw
25.2%
Away win
27.8%

xG 1.56 – 1.14
MD3Wed, 21 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Away

Inter v Shakhtar Donetsk

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
71.3%
Draw
18.0%
Away win
10.7%

xG 2.19 – 0.71
MD4Tue, 3 Nov 2026 · 18:45 CET · Home

Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting CP

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
26.8%
Draw
24.5%
Away win
48.7%

xG 1.15 – 1.63
MD5Wed, 25 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Home

Shakhtar Donetsk v Fenerbahçe

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
41.4%
Draw
25.8%
Away win
32.9%

xG 1.44 – 1.25
MD6Wed, 9 Dec 2026 · 18:45 CET · Away

Slovan Bratislava v Shakhtar Donetsk

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
30.1%
Draw
25.0%
Away win
44.9%

xG 1.23 – 1.55
MD7Wed, 20 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Away

RB Leipzig v Shakhtar Donetsk

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
55.2%
Draw
23.6%
Away win
21.2%

xG 1.74 – 0.98
MD8Wed, 27 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Home

Shakhtar Donetsk v Real Madrid

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
12.5%
Draw
17.8%
Away win
69.8%

xG 0.86 – 2.31

Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.

League-phase expectation

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points after 8 matches: 8.72; +0.15 vs pre-season
Expected league position 1 is best: 23.83; −0.54 vs pre-season

How far the club gets

reaches at least this stage

Top 8direct to the round of 16 2.1% −0.8 pp
Top 24reaches the knockout phase 49.7% +3.9 pp
Round of 16 15.1% +0.4 pp
Quarter-final 2.0% −0.1 pp
Semi-final 0.2% 0.0 pp
Final <0.1% 0.0 pp
Champion <0.1% 0.0 pp

Where the season ends

final outcome · sums to 100.0%

League phaseeliminated in the league phase 50.3% −3.9 pp
Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 34.7% +3.5 pp
Round of 16eliminated 13.1% +0.6 pp
Quarter-finaleliminated 1.7% −0.1 pp
Semi-finaleliminated 0.2% 0.0 pp
Finalrunner-up <0.1% 0.0 pp
Championwins the competition <0.1% 0.0 pp

Most likely end point: League phase.

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 1changes compared with the pre-season forecastmodel outputs, not odds