Fenerbahçe

ActiveTURPot 3UEFA Champions League 2026-27League phase

Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.

Club

OFFICIAL results as of 22 Oct 2026, 05:02 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 3

Season outlook

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points: 7.5
Expected league position: 27.4
Top 8 (direct to round of 16): 0.2%
Top 24 (reaches the knockouts): 27.9%

Competition state

DERIVEDLeague phase: 54 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 4
OFFICIALThis club: 3 of 8 played · 0 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost
OFFICIALLast result: MD3 · Fenerbahçe 2–2 Slavia Praha · Drew
Next fixture: MD4 · Wed, 4 Nov 2026 · 18:45 CET · Fenerbahçe v Liverpool

Model inputs

MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given

Strength rating: 77.4 / 100; BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
European pedigree: 3.0 / 5; European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
Home advantage: +0.35; Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.

League-phase fixtures

8 matches · kickoff in Central European time

MD1Thu, 10 Sept 2026 · 18:45 CEST · Home

Fenerbahçe 1–1 Roma

OFFICIALFull time · Drew

MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable

Home win
37.1%
Draw
25.7%
Away win
37.3%

xG 1.36 – 1.37
MD2Wed, 14 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Away

Aston Villa 6–0 Fenerbahçe

OFFICIALFull time · Lost

MODELPre-match forecastArchived 13 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC

Home win
66.8%
Draw
19.9%
Away win
13.3%

xG 2.05 – 0.78
MD3Tue, 20 Oct 2026 · 18:45 CEST · Home

Fenerbahçe 2–2 Slavia Praha

OFFICIALFull time · Drew

MODELPre-match forecastArchived 20 Oct 2026, 12:32 UTC

Home win
53.7%
Draw
24.0%
Away win
22.2%

xG 1.70 – 1.00
MD4Wed, 4 Nov 2026 · 18:45 CET · Home

Fenerbahçe v Liverpool

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
21.2%
Draw
22.2%
Away win
56.7%

xG 1.08 – 1.91
MD5Wed, 25 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Away

Shakhtar Donetsk v Fenerbahçe

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
43.6%
Draw
25.6%
Away win
30.9%

xG 1.48 – 1.21
MD6Wed, 9 Dec 2026 · 21:00 CET · Away

LASK v Fenerbahçe

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
33.4%
Draw
25.5%
Away win
41.1%

xG 1.29 – 1.46
MD7Wed, 20 Jan 2027 · 18:45 CET · Home

Fenerbahçe v Villarreal

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
39.7%
Draw
25.7%
Away win
34.6%

xG 1.41 – 1.30
MD8Wed, 27 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Away

Atlético Madrid v Fenerbahçe

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
71.1%
Draw
18.1%
Away win
10.7%

xG 2.18 – 0.71

Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.

League-phase expectation

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points after 8 matches: 7.47; −2.13 vs pre-season
Expected league position 1 is best: 27.40; +5.44 vs pre-season

How far the club gets

reaches at least this stage

Top 8direct to the round of 16 0.2% −5.4 pp
Top 24reaches the knockout phase 27.9% −30.7 pp
Round of 16 8.6% −14.7 pp
Quarter-final 1.1% −3.2 pp
Semi-final 0.1% −0.5 pp
Final <0.1% −0.1 pp
Champion <0.1% 0.0 pp

Where the season ends

final outcome · sums to 100.0%

League phaseeliminated in the league phase 72.1% +30.7 pp
Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 19.3% −16.1 pp
Round of 16eliminated 7.4% −11.5 pp
Quarter-finaleliminated 1.0% −2.7 pp
Semi-finaleliminated 0.1% −0.5 pp
Finalrunner-up <0.1% −0.1 pp
Championwins the competition <0.1% 0.0 pp

Most likely end point: League phase.

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 3changes compared with the pre-season forecast, which also include the rating revision of 22 October 2026model outputs, not odds