BapLab

Fenerbahçe

ActiveTURPot 3UEFA Champions League 2026-27League phase

Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.

OFFICIAL results as of 11 Sept 2026, 16:31 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 1

Season outlook

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons
Expected points
9.3
Expected league position
22.6
Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
3.0%
Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
56.7%

Competition state

DERIVEDLeague phase
18 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 2
OFFICIALThis club
1 of 8 played · 0 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost
OFFICIALLast result
MD1 · Fenerbahçe 1–1 Roma · Drew
Next fixture
MD2 · Wed, 14 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe

Model inputs

MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given
Strength rating
78 / 100
BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
European pedigree
3.0 / 5
European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
Home advantage
+0.35
Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.

League-phase fixtures

8 matches · kickoff in Central European time

  • MD1Thu, 10 Sept 2026 · 18:45 CEST · Home

    Fenerbahçe 1–1 Roma

    OFFICIALFull time · Drew

    MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable

    Home win
    37.1%
    Draw
    25.7%
    Away win
    37.3%

    xG 1.36 – 1.37

  • MD2Wed, 14 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Away

    Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe

    Scheduled

    MODELCurrent forecast

    Home win
    66.8%
    Draw
    19.9%
    Away win
    13.3%

    xG 2.05 – 0.78

  • MD3Tue, 20 Oct 2026 · 18:45 CEST · Home

    Fenerbahçe v Slavia Praha

    Scheduled

    MODELCurrent forecast

    Home win
    53.7%
    Draw
    24.0%
    Away win
    22.2%

    xG 1.70 – 1.00

  • MD4Wed, 4 Nov 2026 · 18:45 CET · Home

    Fenerbahçe v Liverpool

    Scheduled

    MODELCurrent forecast

    Home win
    23.7%
    Draw
    23.2%
    Away win
    53.1%

    xG 1.12 – 1.80

  • MD5Wed, 25 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Away

    Shakhtar Donetsk v Fenerbahçe

    Scheduled

    MODELCurrent forecast

    Home win
    41.4%
    Draw
    25.8%
    Away win
    32.9%

    xG 1.44 – 1.25

  • MD6Wed, 9 Dec 2026 · 21:00 CET · Away

    LASK v Fenerbahçe

    Scheduled

    MODELCurrent forecast

    Home win
    31.6%
    Draw
    25.3%
    Away win
    43.1%

    xG 1.25 – 1.51

  • MD7Wed, 20 Jan 2027 · 18:45 CET · Home

    Fenerbahçe v Villarreal

    Scheduled

    MODELCurrent forecast

    Home win
    42.6%
    Draw
    25.6%
    Away win
    31.8%

    xG 1.47 – 1.23

  • MD8Wed, 27 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Away

    Atlético Madrid v Fenerbahçe

    Scheduled

    MODELCurrent forecast

    Home win
    70.4%
    Draw
    18.5%
    Away win
    11.2%

    xG 2.15 – 0.72

Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.

League-phase expectation

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons
Expected points after 8 matches
9.25
−0.35 vs pre-season
Expected league position 1 is best
22.62
+0.66 vs pre-season

How far the club gets

reaches at least this stage
  • Top 8direct to the round of 16 3.0% −2.6 pp
  • Top 24reaches the knockout phase 56.7% −1.9 pp
  • Round of 16 20.5% −2.8 pp
  • Quarter-final 3.4% −1.0 pp
  • Semi-final 0.5% −0.2 pp
  • Final <0.1% 0.0 pp
  • Champion <0.1% 0.0 pp

Where the season ends

final outcome · sums to 100.0%
  • League phaseeliminated in the league phase 43.3% +1.9 pp
  • Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 36.2% +0.8 pp
  • Round of 16eliminated 17.1% −1.8 pp
  • Quarter-finaleliminated 2.9% −0.8 pp
  • Semi-finaleliminated 0.4% −0.2 pp
  • Finalrunner-up <0.1% 0.0 pp
  • Championwins the competition <0.1% 0.0 pp

Most likely end point: League phase.

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 1changes compared with the pre-season forecastmodel outputs, not odds