Liverpool

ActiveENGPot 1UEFA Champions League 2026-27League phase

Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.

Club

OFFICIAL results as of 11 Sept 2026, 16:31 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 1

Season outlook

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points: 16.7
Expected league position: 7.3
Top 8 (direct to round of 16): 66.7%
Top 24 (reaches the knockouts): 99.2%

Competition state

DERIVEDLeague phase: 18 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 2
OFFICIALThis club: 1 of 8 played · 1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost
OFFICIALLast result: MD1 · Liverpool 2–1 Atlético Madrid · Won
Next fixture: MD2 · Wed, 14 Oct 2026 · 18:45 CEST · LASK v Liverpool

Model inputs

MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given

Strength rating: 90 / 100; BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
European pedigree: 5.0 / 5; European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
Home advantage: +0.34; Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.

League-phase fixtures

8 matches · kickoff in Central European time

MD1Wed, 9 Sept 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Home

Liverpool 2–1 Atlético Madrid

OFFICIALFull time · Won

MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable

Home win
50.8%
Draw
24.6%
Away win
24.6%

xG 1.63 – 1.06
MD2Wed, 14 Oct 2026 · 18:45 CEST · Away

LASK v Liverpool

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
12.4%
Draw
17.3%
Away win
70.3%

xG 0.89 – 2.37
MD3Tue, 20 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Home

Liverpool v Villarreal

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
68.7%
Draw
19.2%
Away win
12.1%

xG 2.09 – 0.74
MD4Wed, 4 Nov 2026 · 18:45 CET · Away

Fenerbahçe v Liverpool

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
23.7%
Draw
23.2%
Away win
53.1%

xG 1.12 – 1.80
MD5Wed, 25 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Away

Club Brugge v Liverpool

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
25.7%
Draw
23.9%
Away win
50.3%

xG 1.15 – 1.71
MD6Wed, 9 Dec 2026 · 21:00 CET · Home

Liverpool v Porto

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
64.8%
Draw
20.8%
Away win
14.4%

xG 1.98 – 0.81
MD7Tue, 19 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Away

Inter v Liverpool

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
43.7%
Draw
25.6%
Away win
30.7%

xG 1.49 – 1.20
MD8Wed, 27 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Home

Liverpool v Lens

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
70.7%
Draw
18.4%
Away win
10.9%

xG 2.16 – 0.71

Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.

League-phase expectation

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points after 8 matches: 16.72; +1.22 vs pre-season
Expected league position 1 is best: 7.31; −1.62 vs pre-season

How far the club gets

reaches at least this stage

Top 8direct to the round of 16 66.7% +10.3 pp
Top 24reaches the knockout phase 99.2% +2.0 pp
Round of 16 91.4% +4.8 pp
Quarter-final 55.5% +4.6 pp
Semi-final 25.4% +1.8 pp
Final 10.1% +0.6 pp
Champion 3.9% +0.2 pp

Where the season ends

final outcome · sums to 100.0%

League phaseeliminated in the league phase 0.8% −2.0 pp
Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 7.8% −2.8 pp
Round of 16eliminated 35.8% +0.3 pp
Quarter-finaleliminated 30.1% +2.8 pp
Semi-finaleliminated 15.3% +1.1 pp
Finalrunner-up 6.2% +0.4 pp
Championwins the competition 3.9% +0.2 pp

Most likely end point: Round of 16.

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 1changes compared with the pre-season forecastmodel outputs, not odds