Liverpool
Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.
OFFICIAL results as of 22 Oct 2026, 05:02 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 3
Season outlook
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points
- 18.7
- Expected league position
- 4.6
- Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
- 88.1%
- Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
- 100.0%
Competition state
- DERIVEDLeague phase
- 54 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 4
- OFFICIALThis club
- 3 of 8 played · 3 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost
- OFFICIALLast result
- MD3 · Liverpool 4–3 Villarreal · Won
- Next fixture
- MD4 · Wed, 4 Nov 2026 · 18:45 CET · Fenerbahçe v Liverpool
Model inputs
MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given- Strength rating
- 90.9 / 100
- BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
- European pedigree
- 5.0 / 5
- European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
- Home advantage
- +0.34
- Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.
League-phase fixtures
8 matches · kickoff in Central European time-
MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable
- Home win
- 50.8%
- Draw
- 24.6%
- Away win
- 24.6%
xG 1.63 – 1.06
-
MODELPre-match forecastArchived 13 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC
- Home win
- 12.4%
- Draw
- 17.3%
- Away win
- 70.3%
xG 0.89 – 2.37
-
MODELPre-match forecastArchived 20 Oct 2026, 12:32 UTC
- Home win
- 68.7%
- Draw
- 19.2%
- Away win
- 12.1%
xG 2.09 – 0.74
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 21.2%
- Draw
- 22.2%
- Away win
- 56.7%
xG 1.08 – 1.91
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 25.5%
- Draw
- 23.9%
- Away win
- 50.6%
xG 1.15 – 1.71
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 70.5%
- Draw
- 18.5%
- Away win
- 11.0%
xG 2.15 – 0.71
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 39.3%
- Draw
- 25.8%
- Away win
- 35.0%
xG 1.40 – 1.31
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 73.6%
- Draw
- 17.1%
- Away win
- 9.4%
xG 2.25 – 0.66
Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.
League-phase expectation
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points after 8 matches
- 18.66
- +3.15 vs pre-season
- Expected league position 1 is best
- 4.65
- −4.29 vs pre-season
How far the club gets
reaches at least this stage- Top 8direct to the round of 16 88.1% +31.6 pp
- Top 24reaches the knockout phase 100.0% +2.8 pp
- Round of 16 97.7% +11.1 pp
- Quarter-final 67.2% +16.2 pp
- Semi-final 32.9% +9.3 pp
- Final 13.7% +4.2 pp
- Champion 5.5% +1.9 pp
Where the season ends
final outcome · sums to 100.0%- League phaseeliminated in the league phase <0.1% −2.8 pp
- Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 2.3% −8.3 pp
- Round of 16eliminated 30.5% −5.1 pp
- Quarter-finaleliminated 34.3% +6.9 pp
- Semi-finaleliminated 19.2% +5.0 pp
- Finalrunner-up 8.2% +2.4 pp
- Championwins the competition 5.5% +1.9 pp
Most likely end point: Quarter-final.
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 3changes compared with the pre-season forecast, which also include the rating revision of 22 October 2026model outputs, not odds