Inter

ActiveITAPot 1UEFA Champions League 2026-27League phase

Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.

Club

OFFICIAL results as of 22 Oct 2026, 05:02 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 3

Season outlook

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points: 11.6
Expected league position: 16.9
Top 8 (direct to round of 16): 9.3%
Top 24 (reaches the knockouts): 85.6%

Competition state

DERIVEDLeague phase: 54 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 4
OFFICIALThis club: 3 of 8 played · 1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
OFFICIALLast result: MD3 · Inter 1–0 Shakhtar Donetsk · Won
Next fixture: MD4 · Tue, 3 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Feyenoord v Inter

Model inputs

MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given

Strength rating: 88.1 / 100; BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
European pedigree: 5.0 / 5; European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
Home advantage: +0.29; Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.

League-phase fixtures

8 matches · kickoff in Central European time

MD1Tue, 8 Sept 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Away

Real Madrid 2–1 Inter

OFFICIALFull time · Lost

MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable

Home win
58.8%
Draw
22.7%
Away win
18.5%

xG 1.82 – 0.92
MD2Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Home

Inter 3–4 Club Brugge

OFFICIALFull time · Lost

MODELPre-match forecastArchived 13 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC

Home win
66.5%
Draw
20.0%
Away win
13.5%

xG 2.04 – 0.79
MD3Wed, 21 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Home

Inter 1–0 Shakhtar Donetsk

OFFICIALFull time · Won

MODELPre-match forecastArchived 20 Oct 2026, 12:32 UTC

Home win
71.3%
Draw
18.0%
Away win
10.7%

xG 2.19 – 0.71
MD4Tue, 3 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Away

Feyenoord v Inter

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
26.1%
Draw
23.9%
Away win
50.0%

xG 1.16 – 1.70
MD5Wed, 25 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Home

Inter v Stuttgart

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
59.2%
Draw
22.6%
Away win
18.3%

xG 1.83 – 0.91
MD6Wed, 9 Dec 2026 · 21:00 CET · Away

Borussia Dortmund v Inter

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
44.9%
Draw
25.5%
Away win
29.7%

xG 1.51 – 1.18
MD7Tue, 19 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Home

Inter v Liverpool

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
39.3%
Draw
25.8%
Away win
35.0%

xG 1.40 – 1.31
MD8Wed, 27 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Away

Slovan Bratislava v Inter

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
12.4%
Draw
17.3%
Away win
70.4%

xG 0.90 – 2.38

Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.

League-phase expectation

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points after 8 matches: 11.60; −2.67 vs pre-season
Expected league position 1 is best: 16.90; +5.65 vs pre-season

How far the club gets

reaches at least this stage

Top 8direct to the round of 16 9.3% −32.1 pp
Top 24reaches the knockout phase 85.6% −9.2 pp
Round of 16 59.6% −18.9 pp
Quarter-final 22.8% −17.5 pp
Semi-final 8.4% −8.2 pp
Final 2.7% −3.4 pp
Champion 0.9% −1.3 pp

Where the season ends

final outcome · sums to 100.0%

League phaseeliminated in the league phase 14.4% +9.2 pp
Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 26.0% +9.8 pp
Round of 16eliminated 36.8% −1.4 pp
Quarter-finaleliminated 14.4% −9.3 pp
Semi-finaleliminated 5.7% −4.9 pp
Finalrunner-up 1.8% −2.0 pp
Championwins the competition 0.9% −1.3 pp

Most likely end point: Round of 16.

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 3changes compared with the pre-season forecast, which also include the rating revision of 22 October 2026model outputs, not odds