Borussia Dortmund
Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.
OFFICIAL results as of 22 Oct 2026, 05:02 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 3
Season outlook
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points
- 13.5
- Expected league position
- 13.3
- Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
- 21.8%
- Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
- 96.3%
Competition state
- DERIVEDLeague phase
- 54 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 4
- OFFICIALThis club
- 3 of 8 played · 2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost
- OFFICIALLast result
- MD3 · Sabah 1–2 Borussia Dortmund · Won
- Next fixture
- MD4 · Wed, 4 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Borussia Dortmund v Real Betis
Model inputs
MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given- Strength rating
- 86.9 / 100
- BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
- European pedigree
- 4.5 / 5
- European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
- Home advantage
- +0.35
- Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.
League-phase fixtures
8 matches · kickoff in Central European time-
MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable
- Home win
- 61.4%
- Draw
- 22.0%
- Away win
- 16.7%
xG 1.88 – 0.86
-
MODELPre-match forecastArchived 13 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC
- Home win
- 26.5%
- Draw
- 24.1%
- Away win
- 49.5%
xG 1.17 – 1.69
-
MODELPre-match forecastArchived 20 Oct 2026, 12:32 UTC
- Home win
- 9.8%
- Draw
- 15.2%
- Away win
- 75.0%
xG 0.84 – 2.59
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 58.0%
- Draw
- 23.0%
- Away win
- 19.1%
xG 1.80 – 0.92
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 68.1%
- Draw
- 19.4%
- Away win
- 12.5%
xG 2.09 – 0.76
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 44.9%
- Draw
- 25.5%
- Away win
- 29.7%
xG 1.51 – 1.18
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 50.8%
- Draw
- 24.6%
- Away win
- 24.6%
xG 1.63 – 1.06
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 72.3%
- Draw
- 17.7%
- Away win
- 10.0%
xG 2.21 – 0.68
Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.
League-phase expectation
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points after 8 matches
- 13.46
- −0.34 vs pre-season
- Expected league position 1 is best
- 13.25
- +1.03 vs pre-season
How far the club gets
reaches at least this stage- Top 8direct to the round of 16 21.8% −13.7 pp
- Top 24reaches the knockout phase 96.3% +3.0 pp
- Round of 16 69.7% −2.6 pp
- Quarter-final 27.3% −4.9 pp
- Semi-final 8.9% −2.5 pp
- Final 2.5% −0.9 pp
- Champion 0.8% −0.3 pp
Where the season ends
final outcome · sums to 100.0%- League phaseeliminated in the league phase 3.7% −3.0 pp
- Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 26.6% +5.6 pp
- Round of 16eliminated 42.3% +2.3 pp
- Quarter-finaleliminated 18.5% −2.3 pp
- Semi-finaleliminated 6.3% −1.7 pp
- Finalrunner-up 1.8% −0.6 pp
- Championwins the competition 0.8% −0.3 pp
Most likely end point: Round of 16.
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 3changes compared with the pre-season forecast, which also include the rating revision of 22 October 2026model outputs, not odds