Borussia Dortmund
Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.
OFFICIAL results as of 11 Sept 2026, 16:31 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 1
Season outlook
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points
- 14.7
- Expected league position
- 10.8
- Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
- 41.0%
- Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
- 97.2%
Competition state
- DERIVEDLeague phase
- 18 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 2
- OFFICIALThis club
- 1 of 8 played · 1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost
- OFFICIALLast result
- MD1 · Borussia Dortmund 3–2 Villarreal · Won
- Next fixture
- MD2 · Wed, 14 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Bodø/Glimt v Borussia Dortmund
Model inputs
MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given- Strength rating
- 87 / 100
- BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
- European pedigree
- 4.5 / 5
- European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
- Home advantage
- +0.35
- Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.
League-phase fixtures
8 matches · kickoff in Central European time-
MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable
- Home win
- 61.4%
- Draw
- 22.0%
- Away win
- 16.7%
xG 1.88 – 0.86
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 26.5%
- Draw
- 24.1%
- Away win
- 49.5%
xG 1.17 – 1.69
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 9.8%
- Draw
- 15.2%
- Away win
- 75.0%
xG 0.84 – 2.59
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 61.8%
- Draw
- 21.8%
- Away win
- 16.4%
xG 1.89 – 0.85
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 66.2%
- Draw
- 20.1%
- Away win
- 13.6%
xG 2.03 – 0.79
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 42.8%
- Draw
- 25.6%
- Away win
- 31.6%
xG 1.47 – 1.23
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 48.2%
- Draw
- 25.1%
- Away win
- 26.7%
xG 1.58 – 1.11
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 72.0%
- Draw
- 17.8%
- Away win
- 10.2%
xG 2.20 – 0.69
Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.
League-phase expectation
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points after 8 matches
- 14.72
- +0.91 vs pre-season
- Expected league position 1 is best
- 10.76
- −1.46 vs pre-season
How far the club gets
reaches at least this stage- Top 8direct to the round of 16 41.0% +5.5 pp
- Top 24reaches the knockout phase 97.2% +3.9 pp
- Round of 16 77.6% +5.3 pp
- Quarter-final 34.6% +2.4 pp
- Semi-final 11.7% +0.3 pp
- Final 3.4% 0.0 pp
- Champion 1.0% 0.0 pp
Where the season ends
final outcome · sums to 100.0%- League phaseeliminated in the league phase 2.8% −3.9 pp
- Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 19.7% −1.3 pp
- Round of 16eliminated 42.9% +2.9 pp
- Quarter-finaleliminated 22.9% +2.1 pp
- Semi-finaleliminated 8.3% +0.3 pp
- Finalrunner-up 2.4% 0.0 pp
- Championwins the competition 1.0% 0.0 pp
Most likely end point: Round of 16.
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 1changes compared with the pre-season forecastmodel outputs, not odds