Arsenal
Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.
OFFICIAL results as of 11 Sept 2026, 16:31 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 1
Season outlook
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points
- 17.7
- Expected league position
- 5.6
- Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
- 79.0%
- Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
- 99.8%
Competition state
- DERIVEDLeague phase
- 18 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 2
- OFFICIALThis club
- 1 of 8 played · 1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost
- OFFICIALLast result
- MD1 · Napoli 0–1 Arsenal · Won
- Next fixture
- MD2 · Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Arsenal v Lille
Model inputs
MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given- Strength rating
- 95 / 100
- BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
- European pedigree
- 4.5 / 5
- European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
- Home advantage
- +0.28
- Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.
League-phase fixtures
8 matches · kickoff in Central European time-
MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable
- Home win
- 21.7%
- Draw
- 22.6%
- Away win
- 55.7%
xG 1.08 – 1.86
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 77.9%
- Draw
- 14.8%
- Away win
- 7.3%
xG 2.45 – 0.61
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 49.5%
- Draw
- 24.9%
- Away win
- 25.7%
xG 1.61 – 1.08
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 11.8%
- Draw
- 16.6%
- Away win
- 71.6%
xG 0.90 – 2.46
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 66.2%
- Draw
- 20.1%
- Away win
- 13.6%
xG 2.03 – 0.79
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 48.2%
- Draw
- 25.1%
- Away win
- 26.7%
xG 1.58 – 1.11
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 17.4%
- Draw
- 20.5%
- Away win
- 62.1%
xG 1.00 – 2.07
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 94.7%
- Draw
- 4.2%
- Away win
- 0.9%
xG 3.78 – 0.29
Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.
League-phase expectation
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points after 8 matches
- 17.66
- +1.10 vs pre-season
- Expected league position 1 is best
- 5.59
- −1.21 vs pre-season
How far the club gets
reaches at least this stage- Top 8direct to the round of 16 79.0% +8.9 pp
- Top 24reaches the knockout phase 99.8% +0.7 pp
- Round of 16 97.2% +2.2 pp
- Quarter-final 74.2% +3.0 pp
- Semi-final 46.9% +1.3 pp
- Final 27.0% +0.6 pp
- Champion 14.3% +0.2 pp
Where the season ends
final outcome · sums to 100.0%- League phaseeliminated in the league phase 0.2% −0.7 pp
- Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 2.6% −1.5 pp
- Round of 16eliminated 23.0% −0.8 pp
- Quarter-finaleliminated 27.3% +1.7 pp
- Semi-finaleliminated 19.9% +0.7 pp
- Finalrunner-up 12.7% +0.4 pp
- Championwins the competition 14.3% +0.2 pp
Most likely end point: Quarter-final.
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 1changes compared with the pre-season forecastmodel outputs, not odds