Arsenal
Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.
OFFICIAL results as of 22 Oct 2026, 05:02 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 3
Season outlook
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points
- 18.2
- Expected league position
- 4.7
- Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
- 88.1%
- Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
- 100.0%
Competition state
- DERIVEDLeague phase
- 54 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 4
- OFFICIALThis club
- 3 of 8 played · 2 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost
- OFFICIALLast result
- MD3 · Bayern Munich 2–2 Arsenal · Drew
- Next fixture
- MD4 · Wed, 4 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Slavia Praha v Arsenal
Model inputs
MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given- Strength rating
- 95.7 / 100
- BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
- European pedigree
- 4.5 / 5
- European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
- Home advantage
- +0.28
- Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.
League-phase fixtures
8 matches · kickoff in Central European time-
MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable
- Home win
- 21.7%
- Draw
- 22.6%
- Away win
- 55.7%
xG 1.08 – 1.86
-
MODELPre-match forecastArchived 13 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC
- Home win
- 77.9%
- Draw
- 14.8%
- Away win
- 7.3%
xG 2.45 – 0.61
-
MODELPre-match forecastArchived 20 Oct 2026, 12:32 UTC
- Home win
- 49.5%
- Draw
- 24.9%
- Away win
- 25.7%
xG 1.61 – 1.08
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 9.8%
- Draw
- 14.9%
- Away win
- 75.3%
xG 0.85 – 2.63
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 68.1%
- Draw
- 19.4%
- Away win
- 12.5%
xG 2.09 – 0.76
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 47.7%
- Draw
- 25.1%
- Away win
- 27.2%
xG 1.57 – 1.12
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 18.6%
- Draw
- 21.2%
- Away win
- 60.2%
xG 1.02 – 2.01
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 93.6%
- Draw
- 5.0%
- Away win
- 1.3%
xG 3.64 – 0.34
Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.
League-phase expectation
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points after 8 matches
- 18.22
- +1.67 vs pre-season
- Expected league position 1 is best
- 4.72
- −2.08 vs pre-season
How far the club gets
reaches at least this stage- Top 8direct to the round of 16 88.1% +17.9 pp
- Top 24reaches the knockout phase 100.0% +0.8 pp
- Round of 16 98.7% +3.6 pp
- Quarter-final 79.4% +8.2 pp
- Semi-final 51.9% +6.3 pp
- Final 30.6% +4.2 pp
- Champion 16.6% +2.5 pp
Where the season ends
final outcome · sums to 100.0%- League phaseeliminated in the league phase <0.1% −0.8 pp
- Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 1.3% −2.8 pp
- Round of 16eliminated 19.2% −4.6 pp
- Quarter-finaleliminated 27.5% +1.9 pp
- Semi-finaleliminated 21.3% +2.2 pp
- Finalrunner-up 14.0% +1.6 pp
- Championwins the competition 16.6% +2.5 pp
Most likely end point: Quarter-final.
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 3changes compared with the pre-season forecast, which also include the rating revision of 22 October 2026model outputs, not odds