Lille
Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.
OFFICIAL results as of 11 Sept 2026, 16:31 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 1
Season outlook
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points
- 8.1
- Expected league position
- 25.0
- Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
- 1.2%
- Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
- 43.2%
Competition state
- DERIVEDLeague phase
- 18 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 2
- OFFICIALThis club
- 1 of 8 played · 0 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost
- OFFICIALLast result
- MD1 · Lille 2–3 Real Betis · Lost
- Next fixture
- MD2 · Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Arsenal v Lille
Model inputs
MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given- Strength rating
- 81 / 100
- BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
- European pedigree
- 3.0 / 5
- European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
- Home advantage
- +0.27
- Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.
League-phase fixtures
8 matches · kickoff in Central European time-
MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable
- Home win
- 45.9%
- Draw
- 25.4%
- Away win
- 28.8%
xG 1.53 – 1.16
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 77.9%
- Draw
- 14.8%
- Away win
- 7.3%
xG 2.45 – 0.61
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 43.4%
- Draw
- 25.6%
- Away win
- 31.0%
xG 1.48 – 1.21
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 38.4%
- Draw
- 25.7%
- Away win
- 35.9%
xG 1.39 – 1.33
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 15.1%
- Draw
- 19.3%
- Away win
- 65.6%
xG 0.95 – 2.18
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 48.4%
- Draw
- 25.0%
- Away win
- 26.5%
xG 1.58 – 1.11
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 69.2%
- Draw
- 18.9%
- Away win
- 11.9%
xG 2.13 – 0.75
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 52.9%
- Draw
- 24.2%
- Away win
- 22.9%
xG 1.68 – 1.02
Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.
League-phase expectation
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points after 8 matches
- 8.14
- −1.64 vs pre-season
- Expected league position 1 is best
- 25.00
- +3.40 vs pre-season
How far the club gets
reaches at least this stage- Top 8direct to the round of 16 1.2% −4.4 pp
- Top 24reaches the knockout phase 43.2% −17.7 pp
- Round of 16 16.7% −10.3 pp
- Quarter-final 3.2% −2.9 pp
- Semi-final 0.6% −0.6 pp
- Final <0.1% −0.1 pp
- Champion <0.1% 0.0 pp
Where the season ends
final outcome · sums to 100.0%- League phaseeliminated in the league phase 56.8% +17.7 pp
- Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 26.4% −7.3 pp
- Round of 16eliminated 13.6% −7.4 pp
- Quarter-finaleliminated 2.6% −2.4 pp
- Semi-finaleliminated 0.5% −0.5 pp
- Finalrunner-up <0.1% −0.1 pp
- Championwins the competition <0.1% 0.0 pp
Most likely end point: League phase.
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 1changes compared with the pre-season forecastmodel outputs, not odds