Lille
Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.
OFFICIAL results as of 22 Oct 2026, 05:02 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 3
Season outlook
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points
- 5.8
- Expected league position
- 30.1
- Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
- <0.1%
- Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
- 14.0%
Competition state
- DERIVEDLeague phase
- 54 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 4
- OFFICIALThis club
- 3 of 8 played · 0 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost
- OFFICIALLast result
- MD3 · Lille 2–4 Galatasaray · Lost
- Next fixture
- MD4 · Tue, 3 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Bodø/Glimt v Lille
Model inputs
MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given- Strength rating
- 79.1 / 100
- BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
- European pedigree
- 3.0 / 5
- European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
- Home advantage
- +0.27
- Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.
League-phase fixtures
8 matches · kickoff in Central European time-
MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable
- Home win
- 45.9%
- Draw
- 25.4%
- Away win
- 28.8%
xG 1.53 – 1.16
-
MODELPre-match forecastArchived 13 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC
- Home win
- 77.9%
- Draw
- 14.8%
- Away win
- 7.3%
xG 2.45 – 0.61
-
MODELPre-match forecastArchived 20 Oct 2026, 12:32 UTC
- Home win
- 43.4%
- Draw
- 25.6%
- Away win
- 31.0%
xG 1.48 – 1.21
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 42.1%
- Draw
- 25.7%
- Away win
- 32.2%
xG 1.46 – 1.24
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 14.1%
- Draw
- 18.6%
- Away win
- 67.2%
xG 0.93 – 2.25
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 53.8%
- Draw
- 24.0%
- Away win
- 22.2%
xG 1.70 – 1.00
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 67.7%
- Draw
- 19.5%
- Away win
- 12.8%
xG 2.08 – 0.77
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 55.8%
- Draw
- 23.5%
- Away win
- 20.7%
xG 1.75 – 0.96
Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.
League-phase expectation
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points after 8 matches
- 5.83
- −3.95 vs pre-season
- Expected league position 1 is best
- 30.11
- +8.50 vs pre-season
How far the club gets
reaches at least this stage- Top 8direct to the round of 16 <0.1% −5.6 pp
- Top 24reaches the knockout phase 14.0% −46.8 pp
- Round of 16 4.4% −22.7 pp
- Quarter-final 0.6% −5.5 pp
- Semi-final <0.1% −1.1 pp
- Final <0.1% −0.2 pp
- Champion <0.1% 0.0 pp
Where the season ends
final outcome · sums to 100.0%- League phaseeliminated in the league phase 86.0% +46.8 pp
- Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 9.6% −24.1 pp
- Round of 16eliminated 3.7% −17.3 pp
- Quarter-finaleliminated 0.5% −4.4 pp
- Semi-finaleliminated <0.1% −0.9 pp
- Finalrunner-up <0.1% −0.1 pp
- Championwins the competition <0.1% 0.0 pp
Most likely end point: League phase.
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 3changes compared with the pre-season forecast, which also include the rating revision of 22 October 2026model outputs, not odds