Bayern Munich
Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.
OFFICIAL results as of 11 Sept 2026, 16:31 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 1
Season outlook
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points
- 18.0
- Expected league position
- 4.8
- Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
- 84.1%
- Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
- 99.9%
Competition state
- DERIVEDLeague phase
- 18 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 2
- OFFICIALThis club
- 1 of 8 played · 1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost
- OFFICIALLast result
- MD1 · Bayern Munich 5–0 Bodø/Glimt · Won
- Next fixture
- MD2 · Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Viking v Bayern Munich
Model inputs
MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given- Strength rating
- 96 / 100
- BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
- European pedigree
- 5.0 / 5
- European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
- Home advantage
- +0.30
- Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.
League-phase fixtures
8 matches · kickoff in Central European time-
MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable
- Home win
- 86.8%
- Draw
- 9.7%
- Away win
- 3.5%
xG 2.93 – 0.46
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 5.7%
- Draw
- 10.5%
- Away win
- 83.8%
xG 0.75 – 3.14
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 49.5%
- Draw
- 24.9%
- Away win
- 25.7%
xG 1.61 – 1.08
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 29.7%
- Draw
- 24.9%
- Away win
- 45.4%
xG 1.22 – 1.57
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 15.1%
- Draw
- 19.3%
- Away win
- 65.6%
xG 0.95 – 2.18
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 87.8%
- Draw
- 9.1%
- Away win
- 3.1%
xG 3.00 – 0.44
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 29.4%
- Draw
- 24.9%
- Away win
- 45.7%
xG 1.22 – 1.58
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 80.8%
- Draw
- 13.3%
- Away win
- 5.9%
xG 2.58 – 0.56
Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.
League-phase expectation
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points after 8 matches
- 18.02
- +0.30 vs pre-season
- Expected league position 1 is best
- 4.81
- −0.27 vs pre-season
How far the club gets
reaches at least this stage- Top 8direct to the round of 16 84.1% +2.2 pp
- Top 24reaches the knockout phase 99.9% +0.2 pp
- Round of 16 98.2% +0.5 pp
- Quarter-final 79.0% +1.5 pp
- Semi-final 54.0% +0.3 pp
- Final 34.0% 0.0 pp
- Champion 19.5% +0.2 pp
Where the season ends
final outcome · sums to 100.0%- League phaseeliminated in the league phase 0.1% −0.2 pp
- Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 1.7% −0.3 pp
- Round of 16eliminated 19.2% −0.9 pp
- Quarter-finaleliminated 25.0% +1.2 pp
- Semi-finaleliminated 20.0% +0.3 pp
- Finalrunner-up 14.6% −0.2 pp
- Championwins the competition 19.5% +0.2 pp
Most likely end point: Quarter-final.
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 1changes compared with the pre-season forecastmodel outputs, not odds