Bayern Munich
Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.
OFFICIAL results as of 22 Oct 2026, 05:02 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 3
Season outlook
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points
- 15.7
- Expected league position
- 8.0
- Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
- 62.0%
- Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
- 99.6%
Competition state
- DERIVEDLeague phase
- 54 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 4
- OFFICIALThis club
- 3 of 8 played · 1 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost
- OFFICIALLast result
- MD3 · Bayern Munich 2–2 Arsenal · Drew
- Next fixture
- MD4 · Tue, 3 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Atlético Madrid v Bayern Munich
Model inputs
MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given- Strength rating
- 95.3 / 100
- BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
- European pedigree
- 5.0 / 5
- European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
- Home advantage
- +0.30
- Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.
League-phase fixtures
8 matches · kickoff in Central European time-
MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable
- Home win
- 86.8%
- Draw
- 9.7%
- Away win
- 3.5%
xG 2.93 – 0.46
-
MODELPre-match forecastArchived 13 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC
- Home win
- 5.7%
- Draw
- 10.5%
- Away win
- 83.8%
xG 0.75 – 3.14
-
MODELPre-match forecastArchived 20 Oct 2026, 12:32 UTC
- Home win
- 49.5%
- Draw
- 24.9%
- Away win
- 25.7%
xG 1.61 – 1.08
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 31.1%
- Draw
- 25.1%
- Away win
- 43.8%
xG 1.25 – 1.53
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 14.1%
- Draw
- 18.6%
- Away win
- 67.2%
xG 0.93 – 2.25
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 88.1%
- Draw
- 8.9%
- Away win
- 3.0%
xG 3.03 – 0.44
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 25.6%
- Draw
- 23.9%
- Away win
- 50.5%
xG 1.15 – 1.71
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 76.6%
- Draw
- 15.5%
- Away win
- 7.9%
xG 2.38 – 0.63
Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.
League-phase expectation
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points after 8 matches
- 15.69
- −2.02 vs pre-season
- Expected league position 1 is best
- 8.01
- +2.92 vs pre-season
How far the club gets
reaches at least this stage- Top 8direct to the round of 16 62.0% −20.0 pp
- Top 24reaches the knockout phase 99.6% −0.1 pp
- Round of 16 95.2% −2.4 pp
- Quarter-final 72.1% −5.4 pp
- Semi-final 44.7% −9.0 pp
- Final 26.2% −7.8 pp
- Champion 14.0% −5.3 pp
Where the season ends
final outcome · sums to 100.0%- League phaseeliminated in the league phase 0.4% +0.1 pp
- Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 4.4% +2.4 pp
- Round of 16eliminated 23.1% +3.0 pp
- Quarter-finaleliminated 27.4% +3.6 pp
- Semi-finaleliminated 18.5% −1.2 pp
- Finalrunner-up 12.2% −2.5 pp
- Championwins the competition 14.0% −5.3 pp
Most likely end point: Quarter-final.
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 3changes compared with the pre-season forecast, which also include the rating revision of 22 October 2026model outputs, not odds