Roma
Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.
OFFICIAL results as of 11 Sept 2026, 16:31 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 1
Season outlook
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points
- 10.5
- Expected league position
- 19.7
- Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
- 6.3%
- Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
- 72.0%
Competition state
- DERIVEDLeague phase
- 18 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 2
- OFFICIALThis club
- 1 of 8 played · 0 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost
- OFFICIALLast result
- MD1 · Fenerbahçe 1–1 Roma · Drew
- Next fixture
- MD2 · Wed, 14 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Roma v Real Madrid
Model inputs
MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given- Strength rating
- 84 / 100
- BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
- European pedigree
- 4.0 / 5
- European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
- Home advantage
- +0.31
- Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.
League-phase fixtures
8 matches · kickoff in Central European time-
MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable
- Home win
- 37.1%
- Draw
- 25.7%
- Away win
- 37.3%
xG 1.36 – 1.37
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 23.6%
- Draw
- 23.3%
- Away win
- 53.1%
xG 1.11 – 1.79
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 75.5%
- Draw
- 16.1%
- Away win
- 8.4%
xG 2.34 – 0.64
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 59.2%
- Draw
- 22.6%
- Away win
- 18.2%
xG 1.83 – 0.91
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 74.6%
- Draw
- 16.4%
- Away win
- 8.9%
xG 2.32 – 0.67
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 42.4%
- Draw
- 25.7%
- Away win
- 31.9%
xG 1.46 – 1.23
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 31.5%
- Draw
- 25.1%
- Away win
- 43.3%
xG 1.26 – 1.52
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 52.9%
- Draw
- 24.2%
- Away win
- 22.9%
xG 1.68 – 1.02
Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.
League-phase expectation
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points after 8 matches
- 10.48
- −0.38 vs pre-season
- Expected league position 1 is best
- 19.73
- +0.76 vs pre-season
How far the club gets
reaches at least this stage- Top 8direct to the round of 16 6.3% −4.2 pp
- Top 24reaches the knockout phase 72.0% −1.0 pp
- Round of 16 38.1% −3.0 pp
- Quarter-final 10.5% −1.8 pp
- Semi-final 2.7% −0.4 pp
- Final 0.5% −0.2 pp
- Champion 0.1% 0.0 pp
Where the season ends
final outcome · sums to 100.0%- League phaseeliminated in the league phase 28.0% +1.0 pp
- Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 33.9% +2.1 pp
- Round of 16eliminated 27.6% −1.2 pp
- Quarter-finaleliminated 7.7% −1.4 pp
- Semi-finaleliminated 2.2% −0.3 pp
- Finalrunner-up 0.4% −0.1 pp
- Championwins the competition 0.1% 0.0 pp
Most likely end point: Knockout play-off.
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 1changes compared with the pre-season forecastmodel outputs, not odds