Roma

ActiveITAPot 2UEFA Champions League 2026-27League phase

Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.

Club

OFFICIAL results as of 22 Oct 2026, 05:02 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 3

Season outlook

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points: 10.3
Expected league position: 19.6
Top 8 (direct to round of 16): 3.9%
Top 24 (reaches the knockouts): 74.4%

Competition state

DERIVEDLeague phase: 54 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 4
OFFICIALThis club: 3 of 8 played · 1 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost
OFFICIALLast result: MD3 · Roma 4–0 Slovan Bratislava · Won
Next fixture: MD4 · Tue, 3 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Manchester United v Roma

Model inputs

MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given

Strength rating: 83.7 / 100; BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
European pedigree: 4.0 / 5; European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
Home advantage: +0.31; Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.

League-phase fixtures

8 matches · kickoff in Central European time

MD1Thu, 10 Sept 2026 · 18:45 CEST · Away

Fenerbahçe 1–1 Roma

OFFICIALFull time · Drew

MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable

Home win
37.1%
Draw
25.7%
Away win
37.3%

xG 1.36 – 1.37
MD2Wed, 14 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Home

Roma 3–4 Real Madrid

OFFICIALFull time · Lost

MODELPre-match forecastArchived 13 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC

Home win
23.6%
Draw
23.3%
Away win
53.1%

xG 1.11 – 1.79
MD3Tue, 20 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Home

Roma 4–0 Slovan Bratislava

OFFICIALFull time · Won

MODELPre-match forecastArchived 20 Oct 2026, 12:32 UTC

Home win
75.5%
Draw
16.1%
Away win
8.4%

xG 2.34 – 0.64
MD4Tue, 3 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Away

Manchester United v Roma

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
53.3%
Draw
24.1%
Away win
22.6%

xG 1.69 – 1.01
MD5Wed, 25 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Away

Paris Saint-Germain v Roma

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
75.1%
Draw
16.2%
Away win
8.7%

xG 2.34 – 0.66
MD6Tue, 8 Dec 2026 · 21:00 CET · Home

Roma v Sporting CP

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
42.1%
Draw
25.7%
Away win
32.2%

xG 1.46 – 1.24
MD7Tue, 19 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Away

AEK Athens v Roma

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
31.5%
Draw
25.1%
Away win
43.3%

xG 1.26 – 1.52
MD8Wed, 27 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Home

Roma v Lille

Scheduled

MODELCurrent forecast

Home win
55.8%
Draw
23.5%
Away win
20.7%

xG 1.75 – 0.96

Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.

League-phase expectation

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons

Expected points after 8 matches: 10.33; −0.53 vs pre-season
Expected league position 1 is best: 19.58; +0.60 vs pre-season

How far the club gets

reaches at least this stage

Top 8direct to the round of 16 3.9% −6.6 pp
Top 24reaches the knockout phase 74.4% +1.4 pp
Round of 16 38.4% −2.7 pp
Quarter-final 9.3% −3.0 pp
Semi-final 2.3% −0.9 pp
Final 0.4% −0.3 pp
Champion <0.1% −0.1 pp

Where the season ends

final outcome · sums to 100.0%

League phaseeliminated in the league phase 25.6% −1.4 pp
Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 36.0% +4.1 pp
Round of 16eliminated 29.1% +0.3 pp
Quarter-finaleliminated 7.0% −2.1 pp
Semi-finaleliminated 1.9% −0.6 pp
Finalrunner-up 0.3% −0.2 pp
Championwins the competition <0.1% −0.1 pp

Most likely end point: Knockout play-off.

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 3changes compared with the pre-season forecast, which also include the rating revision of 22 October 2026model outputs, not odds