Porto
Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.
OFFICIAL results as of 22 Oct 2026, 05:02 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 3
Season outlook
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points
- 7.1
- Expected league position
- 27.2
- Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
- 0.1%
- Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
- 30.3%
Competition state
- DERIVEDLeague phase
- 54 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 4
- OFFICIALThis club
- 3 of 8 played · 0 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost
- OFFICIALLast result
- MD3 · Porto 0–1 PSV · Lost
- Next fixture
- MD4 · Wed, 4 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Porto v Napoli
Model inputs
MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given- Strength rating
- 80.9 / 100
- BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
- European pedigree
- 4.5 / 5
- European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
- Home advantage
- +0.33
- Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.
League-phase fixtures
8 matches · kickoff in Central European time-
MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable
- Home win
- 23.1%
- Draw
- 23.0%
- Away win
- 53.8%
xG 1.11 – 1.81
-
MODELPre-match forecastArchived 13 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC
- Home win
- 42.1%
- Draw
- 25.7%
- Away win
- 32.2%
xG 1.45 – 1.24
-
MODELPre-match forecastArchived 20 Oct 2026, 12:32 UTC
- Home win
- 49.6%
- Draw
- 24.8%
- Away win
- 25.5%
xG 1.61 – 1.08
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 43.7%
- Draw
- 25.6%
- Away win
- 30.8%
xG 1.49 – 1.21
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 40.5%
- Draw
- 25.7%
- Away win
- 33.8%
xG 1.43 – 1.28
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 70.5%
- Draw
- 18.5%
- Away win
- 11.0%
xG 2.15 – 0.71
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 61.4%
- Draw
- 21.9%
- Away win
- 16.7%
xG 1.88 – 0.86
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 27.3%
- Draw
- 24.4%
- Away win
- 48.3%
xG 1.17 – 1.64
Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.
League-phase expectation
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points after 8 matches
- 7.11
- −4.38 vs pre-season
- Expected league position 1 is best
- 27.21
- +9.69 vs pre-season
How far the club gets
reaches at least this stage- Top 8direct to the round of 16 0.1% −14.9 pp
- Top 24reaches the knockout phase 30.3% −47.6 pp
- Round of 16 11.6% −33.6 pp
- Quarter-final 2.2% −11.4 pp
- Semi-final 0.5% −2.8 pp
- Final <0.1% −0.6 pp
- Champion <0.1% −0.1 pp
Where the season ends
final outcome · sums to 100.0%- League phaseeliminated in the league phase 69.7% +47.6 pp
- Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 18.7% −14.1 pp
- Round of 16eliminated 9.4% −22.2 pp
- Quarter-finaleliminated 1.8% −8.5 pp
- Semi-finaleliminated 0.4% −2.3 pp
- Finalrunner-up <0.1% −0.4 pp
- Championwins the competition <0.1% −0.1 pp
Most likely end point: League phase.
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 3changes compared with the pre-season forecast, which also include the rating revision of 22 October 2026model outputs, not odds