Porto
Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.
OFFICIAL results as of 11 Sept 2026, 16:31 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 1
Season outlook
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points
- 10.6
- Expected league position
- 19.7
- Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
- 7.0%
- Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
- 71.5%
Competition state
- DERIVEDLeague phase
- 18 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 2
- OFFICIALThis club
- 1 of 8 played · 0 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost
- OFFICIALLast result
- MD1 · Porto 0–2 Manchester City · Lost
- Next fixture
- MD2 · Wed, 14 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Real Betis v Porto
Model inputs
MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given- Strength rating
- 83 / 100
- BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
- European pedigree
- 4.5 / 5
- European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
- Home advantage
- +0.33
- Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.
League-phase fixtures
8 matches · kickoff in Central European time-
MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable
- Home win
- 23.1%
- Draw
- 23.0%
- Away win
- 53.8%
xG 1.11 – 1.81
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 42.1%
- Draw
- 25.7%
- Away win
- 32.2%
xG 1.45 – 1.24
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 49.6%
- Draw
- 24.8%
- Away win
- 25.5%
xG 1.61 – 1.08
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 46.2%
- Draw
- 25.3%
- Away win
- 28.5%
xG 1.54 – 1.15
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 37.0%
- Draw
- 25.7%
- Away win
- 37.4%
xG 1.36 – 1.37
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 64.8%
- Draw
- 20.8%
- Away win
- 14.4%
xG 1.98 – 0.81
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 62.8%
- Draw
- 21.4%
- Away win
- 15.7%
xG 1.92 – 0.84
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 23.4%
- Draw
- 23.3%
- Away win
- 53.3%
xG 1.10 – 1.78
Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.
League-phase expectation
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points after 8 matches
- 10.56
- −0.93 vs pre-season
- Expected league position 1 is best
- 19.67
- +2.14 vs pre-season
How far the club gets
reaches at least this stage- Top 8direct to the round of 16 7.0% −8.0 pp
- Top 24reaches the knockout phase 71.5% −6.4 pp
- Round of 16 37.5% −7.7 pp
- Quarter-final 9.6% −4.0 pp
- Semi-final 2.2% −1.1 pp
- Final 0.4% −0.2 pp
- Champion <0.1% −0.1 pp
Where the season ends
final outcome · sums to 100.0%- League phaseeliminated in the league phase 28.5% +6.4 pp
- Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 34.0% +1.3 pp
- Round of 16eliminated 27.9% −3.7 pp
- Quarter-finaleliminated 7.4% −2.9 pp
- Semi-finaleliminated 1.8% −0.9 pp
- Finalrunner-up 0.3% −0.1 pp
- Championwins the competition <0.1% −0.1 pp
Most likely end point: Knockout play-off.
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 1changes compared with the pre-season forecastmodel outputs, not odds