BapLab

PSV

ActiveNEDPot 2UEFA Champions League 2026-27League phase

Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.

OFFICIAL results as of 11 Sept 2026, 16:31 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 1

Season outlook

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons
Expected points
10.1
Expected league position
20.8
Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
5.2%
Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
66.3%

Competition state

DERIVEDLeague phase
18 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 2
OFFICIALThis club
1 of 8 played · 0 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost
OFFICIALLast result
MD1 · PSV 1–1 Shakhtar Donetsk · Drew
Next fixture
MD2 · Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · RB Leipzig v PSV

Model inputs

MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given
Strength rating
82 / 100
BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
European pedigree
4.0 / 5
European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
Home advantage
+0.32
Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.

League-phase fixtures

8 matches · kickoff in Central European time

  • MD1Thu, 10 Sept 2026 · 18:45 CEST · Home

    PSV 1–1 Shakhtar Donetsk

    OFFICIALFull time · Drew

    MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable

    Home win
    56.4%
    Draw
    23.4%
    Away win
    20.2%

    xG 1.76 – 0.95

  • MD2Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Away

    RB Leipzig v PSV

    Scheduled

    MODELCurrent forecast

    Home win
    46.0%
    Draw
    25.3%
    Away win
    28.6%

    xG 1.53 – 1.15

  • MD3Tue, 20 Oct 2026 · 21:00 CEST · Away

    Porto v PSV

    Scheduled

    MODELCurrent forecast

    Home win
    49.6%
    Draw
    24.8%
    Away win
    25.5%

    xG 1.61 – 1.08

  • MD4Wed, 4 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Home

    PSV v Club Brugge

    Scheduled

    MODELCurrent forecast

    Home win
    51.2%
    Draw
    24.6%
    Away win
    24.3%

    xG 1.64 – 1.05

  • MD5Tue, 24 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · Away

    Real Madrid v PSV

    Scheduled

    MODELCurrent forecast

    Home win
    74.2%
    Draw
    16.7%
    Away win
    9.1%

    xG 2.30 – 0.67

  • MD6Wed, 9 Dec 2026 · 21:00 CET · Home

    PSV v Atlético Madrid

    Scheduled

    MODELCurrent forecast

    Home win
    31.8%
    Draw
    25.2%
    Away win
    43.0%

    xG 1.26 – 1.51

  • MD7Wed, 20 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Away

    Viking v PSV

    Scheduled

    MODELCurrent forecast

    Home win
    24.2%
    Draw
    23.5%
    Away win
    52.3%

    xG 1.12 – 1.76

  • MD8Wed, 27 Jan 2027 · 21:00 CET · Home

    PSV v Stuttgart

    Scheduled

    MODELCurrent forecast

    Home win
    47.7%
    Draw
    25.1%
    Away win
    27.2%

    xG 1.57 – 1.12

Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.

League-phase expectation

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons
Expected points after 8 matches
10.05
−0.90 vs pre-season
Expected league position 1 is best
20.76
+1.95 vs pre-season

How far the club gets

reaches at least this stage
  • Top 8direct to the round of 16 5.2% −6.2 pp
  • Top 24reaches the knockout phase 66.3% −6.8 pp
  • Round of 16 31.7% −7.0 pp
  • Quarter-final 7.4% −2.7 pp
  • Semi-final 1.6% −0.6 pp
  • Final 0.2% −0.1 pp
  • Champion <0.1% 0.0 pp

Where the season ends

final outcome · sums to 100.0%
  • League phaseeliminated in the league phase 33.7% +6.8 pp
  • Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 34.5% +0.2 pp
  • Round of 16eliminated 24.3% −4.3 pp
  • Quarter-finaleliminated 5.8% −2.1 pp
  • Semi-finaleliminated 1.4% −0.5 pp
  • Finalrunner-up 0.2% −0.1 pp
  • Championwins the competition <0.1% 0.0 pp

Most likely end point: Knockout play-off.

SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 1changes compared with the pre-season forecastmodel outputs, not odds