PSV
Fixtures, model forecasts and tournament paths in one place.
OFFICIAL results as of 22 Oct 2026, 05:02 UTCSIMULATION updated after Matchday 3
Season outlook
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points
- 10.8
- Expected league position
- 19.2
- Top 8 (direct to round of 16)
- 4.6%
- Top 24 (reaches the knockouts)
- 76.5%
Competition state
- DERIVEDLeague phase
- 54 of 144 fixtures completed · next up: Matchday 4
- OFFICIALThis club
- 3 of 8 played · 1 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost
- OFFICIALLast result
- MD3 · Porto 0–1 PSV · Won
- Next fixture
- MD4 · Wed, 4 Nov 2026 · 21:00 CET · PSV v Club Brugge
Model inputs
MODEL INPUTwhat the match model is given- Strength rating
- 82.0 / 100
- BapLab’s rating of the club’s current sporting strength, not an official UEFA ranking. The gap between two clubs’ ratings drives the expected goals in their match.
- European pedigree
- 4.0 / 5
- European history and experience. It nudges effective strength up above 3 and down below 3, a small adjustment next to the rating.
- Home advantage
- +0.32
- Extra expected goal difference in the club’s favour in its home matches.
League-phase fixtures
8 matches · kickoff in Central European time-
MODELPre-match forecastArchive time unavailable
- Home win
- 56.4%
- Draw
- 23.4%
- Away win
- 20.2%
xG 1.76 – 0.95
-
MODELPre-match forecastArchived 13 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC
- Home win
- 46.0%
- Draw
- 25.3%
- Away win
- 28.6%
xG 1.53 – 1.15
-
MODELPre-match forecastArchived 20 Oct 2026, 12:32 UTC
- Home win
- 49.6%
- Draw
- 24.8%
- Away win
- 25.5%
xG 1.61 – 1.08
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 49.1%
- Draw
- 24.9%
- Away win
- 25.9%
xG 1.60 – 1.09
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 76.1%
- Draw
- 15.7%
- Away win
- 8.2%
xG 2.38 – 0.64
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 32.0%
- Draw
- 25.2%
- Away win
- 42.8%
xG 1.27 – 1.50
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 24.8%
- Draw
- 23.6%
- Away win
- 51.6%
xG 1.13 – 1.74
-
MODELCurrent forecast
- Home win
- 45.9%
- Draw
- 25.4%
- Away win
- 28.8%
xG 1.53 – 1.16
Home side first. A current forecast can change before kickoff; a completed match keeps its archived pre-match forecast and is never recalculated.
League-phase expectation
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons- Expected points after 8 matches
- 10.76
- −0.20 vs pre-season
- Expected league position 1 is best
- 19.22
- +0.41 vs pre-season
How far the club gets
reaches at least this stage- Top 8direct to the round of 16 4.6% −6.8 pp
- Top 24reaches the knockout phase 76.5% +3.5 pp
- Round of 16 37.0% −1.7 pp
- Quarter-final 8.0% −2.2 pp
- Semi-final 1.6% −0.6 pp
- Final 0.3% −0.1 pp
- Champion <0.1% 0.0 pp
Where the season ends
final outcome · sums to 100.0%- League phaseeliminated in the league phase 23.5% −3.5 pp
- Knockout play-offeliminated in the play-off 39.5% +5.2 pp
- Round of 16eliminated 29.0% +0.4 pp
- Quarter-finaleliminated 6.4% −1.6 pp
- Semi-finaleliminated 1.4% −0.5 pp
- Finalrunner-up 0.2% −0.1 pp
- Championwins the competition <0.1% 0.0 pp
Most likely end point: Knockout play-off.
SIMULATION100,000 simulated seasons, updated after Matchday 3changes compared with the pre-season forecast, which also include the rating revision of 22 October 2026model outputs, not odds