Group E

Germany Germany

This profile is based on 100,000 simulations using the current WC26 simulator engine. The numbers are a model snapshot, not a guarantee. Team ratings, squads and injury updates may change over time.

Champion 5.2%
Group qualification 95.5%
Squad value €998.0m
Avg age 28.0
Avg height 1.857m
Manager Julian Nagelsmann

Group

Finish probabilities

1st 54.8%
2nd 28.2%
3rd qualified 12.5%
3rd not qualified 2.0%
4th 2.4%

Tournament

Stage reach probabilities

R32 95.5%
R16 63.1%
QF 33.4%
SF 19.5%
Final 10.2%
Champion 5.2%

Conditional path

Path by group finish

Finish Sample R32R16QFSFFinalChampion
1st 54.8% 100.0%71.0%36.3%22.0%11.3%5.7%
2nd 28.2% 100.0%56.3%30.5%17.3%9.4%4.8%
3rd 14.5% 86.0%56.7%33.4%17.4%9.2%4.6%

Overall opponent pool

Most common opponents by round

If reached shows the opponent split among this team's matches in that round. All sims shows how often the matchup happens across the full 100,000-simulation snapshot.

R32

Norway Norway If reached: 12.5% All sims: 11.9% Win rate: 56.7%
Scotland Scotland If reached: 9.7% All sims: 9.3% Win rate: 74.4%
Paraguay Paraguay If reached: 9.3% All sims: 8.9% Win rate: 74.7%
Senegal Senegal If reached: 8.4% All sims: 8.0% Win rate: 67.3%
France France If reached: 7.8% All sims: 7.4% Win rate: 39.7%

R16

France France If reached: 30.6% All sims: 19.3% Win rate: 39.6%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 10.8% All sims: 6.8% Win rate: 45.2%
Norway Norway If reached: 10.4% All sims: 6.6% Win rate: 55.6%
Japan Japan If reached: 7.3% All sims: 4.6% Win rate: 62.6%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 7.1% All sims: 4.5% Win rate: 50.2%

QF

Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 13.5% All sims: 4.5% Win rate: 50.4%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 10.4% All sims: 3.5% Win rate: 44.6%
England England If reached: 8.8% All sims: 2.9% Win rate: 44.6%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 8.0% All sims: 2.7% Win rate: 61.8%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 7.4% All sims: 2.5% Win rate: 65.4%

SF

Spain Spain If reached: 20.8% All sims: 4.1% Win rate: 37.8%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 11.3% All sims: 2.2% Win rate: 43.6%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 10.3% All sims: 2.0% Win rate: 45.9%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 9.5% All sims: 1.9% Win rate: 56.2%
England England If reached: 5.2% All sims: 1.0% Win rate: 45.6%

Final

France France If reached: 12.2% All sims: 1.3% Win rate: 37.2%
Spain Spain If reached: 11.2% All sims: 1.1% Win rate: 39.6%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 9.8% All sims: 1.0% Win rate: 45.4%
England England If reached: 9.8% All sims: 1.0% Win rate: 48.5%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 8.7% All sims: 0.9% Win rate: 44.1%

Finish 1st

Germany opponent pool if finishing 1st

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Scotland Scotland If reached: 16.9% Path sims: 16.9% Win rate: 74.4%
Paraguay Paraguay If reached: 15.8% Path sims: 15.8% Win rate: 74.6%
Australia Australia If reached: 11.9% Path sims: 11.9% Win rate: 84.1%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 11.3% Path sims: 11.3% Win rate: 61.9%
Türkiye Türkiye If reached: 11.2% Path sims: 11.2% Win rate: 63.5%

R16

France France If reached: 49.3% Path sims: 35.0% Win rate: 39.6%
Norway Norway If reached: 16.4% Path sims: 11.6% Win rate: 55.5%
Senegal Senegal If reached: 6.7% Path sims: 4.7% Win rate: 66.2%
Japan Japan If reached: 6.5% Path sims: 4.6% Win rate: 62.9%
Sweden Sweden If reached: 6.4% Path sims: 4.6% Win rate: 68.2%

QF

Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 21.4% Path sims: 7.8% Win rate: 50.4%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 12.4% Path sims: 4.5% Win rate: 44.8%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 11.7% Path sims: 4.2% Win rate: 61.5%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 7.9% Path sims: 2.9% Win rate: 65.5%
Japan Japan If reached: 7.4% Path sims: 2.7% Win rate: 62.0%

SF

Spain Spain If reached: 29.5% Path sims: 6.5% Win rate: 37.4%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 13.1% Path sims: 2.9% Win rate: 55.7%
England England If reached: 6.3% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 45.7%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 6.2% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 47.0%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 5.6% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 44.7%

Final

Argentina Argentina If reached: 13.5% Path sims: 1.5% Win rate: 44.4%
England England If reached: 12.9% Path sims: 1.5% Win rate: 47.9%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 11.0% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 47.9%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 10.7% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 43.4%
France France If reached: 8.3% Path sims: 0.9% Win rate: 36.8%

Finish 2nd

Germany opponent pool if finishing 2nd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Norway Norway If reached: 42.3% Path sims: 42.3% Win rate: 56.7%
Senegal Senegal If reached: 28.3% Path sims: 28.3% Win rate: 67.3%
France France If reached: 26.3% Path sims: 26.3% Win rate: 39.7%
Iraq Iraq If reached: 3.1% Path sims: 3.1% Win rate: 90.1%

R16

Brazil Brazil If reached: 42.7% Path sims: 24.0% Win rate: 45.1%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 15.1% Path sims: 8.5% Win rate: 49.0%
Japan Japan If reached: 13.1% Path sims: 7.4% Win rate: 62.2%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 12.5% Path sims: 7.0% Win rate: 61.2%
Sweden Sweden If reached: 11.3% Path sims: 6.4% Win rate: 67.2%

QF

England England If reached: 33.3% Path sims: 10.2% Win rate: 44.8%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 10.3% Path sims: 3.2% Win rate: 65.3%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 10.1% Path sims: 3.1% Win rate: 57.9%
South Korea South Korea If reached: 6.0% Path sims: 1.8% Win rate: 68.2%
Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 4.2% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 63.7%

SF

Argentina Argentina If reached: 23.3% Path sims: 4.0% Win rate: 43.5%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 19.4% Path sims: 3.4% Win rate: 44.7%
Uruguay Uruguay If reached: 7.2% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 58.5%
Spain Spain If reached: 7.1% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 41.0%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 5.8% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 64.6%

Final

Spain Spain If reached: 20.0% Path sims: 1.9% Win rate: 41.4%
France France If reached: 18.3% Path sims: 1.7% Win rate: 37.4%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 6.3% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 49.7%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 5.4% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 43.8%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 5.4% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 56.3%

Finish 3rd

Germany opponent pool if finishing 3rd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Mexico Mexico If reached: 23.1% Path sims: 19.9% Win rate: 65.8%
South Korea South Korea If reached: 16.9% Path sims: 14.5% Win rate: 69.5%
Czechia Czechia If reached: 11.7% Path sims: 10.0% Win rate: 74.0%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 8.9% Path sims: 7.6% Win rate: 45.6%
Türkiye Türkiye If reached: 4.4% Path sims: 3.8% Win rate: 66.5%

R16

England England If reached: 27.2% Path sims: 15.4% Win rate: 42.8%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 10.5% Path sims: 5.9% Win rate: 58.6%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 7.1% Path sims: 4.0% Win rate: 45.3%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 6.3% Path sims: 3.6% Win rate: 62.3%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 6.0% Path sims: 3.4% Win rate: 57.1%

QF

Brazil Brazil If reached: 18.0% Path sims: 6.0% Win rate: 43.6%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 9.6% Path sims: 3.2% Win rate: 40.7%
Spain Spain If reached: 9.1% Path sims: 3.0% Win rate: 37.6%
Norway Norway If reached: 8.1% Path sims: 2.7% Win rate: 59.9%
France France If reached: 7.0% Path sims: 2.3% Win rate: 37.0%

SF

Argentina Argentina If reached: 15.4% Path sims: 2.7% Win rate: 42.2%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 11.9% Path sims: 2.1% Win rate: 46.5%
France France If reached: 6.9% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 39.1%
England England If reached: 5.9% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 43.6%
Spain Spain If reached: 5.9% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 38.9%

Final

France France If reached: 18.7% Path sims: 1.7% Win rate: 37.6%
Spain Spain If reached: 16.9% Path sims: 1.6% Win rate: 35.8%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 6.4% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 52.3%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 5.9% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 50.6%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 5.4% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 45.8%

Squad

Current squad

26 players
Pos Player Age Height Club Value
GK Alexander Nübel 29 1,93m VfB Stuttgart €12.0m
GK Manuel Neuer 40 1,93m Bayern Munich €4.0m
GK Oliver Baumann 36 1,87m TSG 1899 Hoffenheim €2.5m
CB Nico Schlotterbeck 26 1,91m Borussia Dortmund €55.0m
CB Malick Thiaw 24 1,94m Newcastle United €45.0m
CB Jonathan Tah 30 1,95m Bayern Munich €28.0m
CB Waldemar Anton 29 1,89m Borussia Dortmund €18.0m
CB Antonio Rüdiger 33 1,90m Real Madrid €9.0m
LB Nathaniel Brown 22 1,76m Eintracht Frankfurt €40.0m
LB David Raum 28 1,81m RB Leipzig €25.0m
DM Aleksandar Pavlovic 22 1,88m Bayern Munich €90.0m
DM Angelo Stiller 25 1,83m VfB Stuttgart €45.0m
DM Joshua Kimmich 31 1,77m Bayern Munich €35.0m
CM Felix Nmecha 25 1,90m Borussia Dortmund €50.0m
CM Nadiem Amiri 29 1,80m 1.FSV Mainz 05 €17.0m
CM Leon Goretzka 31 1,89m Bayern Munich €12.0m
CM Pascal Groß 35 1,81m Brighton & Hove Albion €3.5m
AM Florian Wirtz 23 1,77m Liverpool FC €110.0m
AM Jamal Musiala 23 1,86m Bayern Munich €100.0m
AM Lennart Karl 18 1,68m Bayern Munich €60.0m
RW Jamie Leweling 25 1,84m VfB Stuttgart €40.0m
RW Leroy Sané 30 1,83m Galatasaray €20.0m
CF Nick Woltemade 24 1,98m Newcastle United €65.0m
CF Kai Havertz 27 1,93m Arsenal FC €50.0m
CF Maximilian Beier 23 1,83m Borussia Dortmund €40.0m
CF Deniz Undav 29 1,79m VfB Stuttgart €22.0m