Group
Finish probabilities
1st 28.1%
2nd 32.7%
3rd qualified 19.5%
3rd not qualified 6.7%
4th 13.0%
Group B
Canada
This profile is based on 100,000 simulations using the current WC26 simulator engine. The numbers are a model snapshot, not a guarantee. Team ratings, squads and injury updates may change over time.
Champion 0.3%
Group qualification 80.3%
Squad value €204.1m
Avg age 27.0
Avg height 1.827m
Manager Jesse Marsch
Tournament
Stage reach probabilities
R32 80.3%
R16 39.4%
QF 13.9%
SF 4.2%
Final 1.3%
Champion 0.3%
Conditional path
Path by group finish
| Finish | Sample | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 28.1% | 100.0% | 54.6% | 17.9% | 5.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 2nd | 32.7% | 100.0% | 48.2% | 17.0% | 5.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 3rd | 26.2% | 74.4% | 31.7% | 12.8% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
Overall opponent pool
Most common opponents by round
If reached shows the opponent split among this team's matches in that round. All sims shows how often the matchup happens across the full 100,000-simulation snapshot.
R32
South Korea If reached: 12.6% All sims: 10.1% Win rate: 44.5% 
Mexico If reached: 11.9% All sims: 9.6% Win rate: 39.4% 
Czechia If reached: 11.1% All sims: 8.9% Win rate: 52.0% 
USA If reached: 9.7% All sims: 7.8% Win rate: 38.3% 
Türkiye If reached: 9.1% All sims: 7.3% Win rate: 39.3% 
Iran If reached: 6.3% All sims: 5.1% Win rate: 69.2% 
Algeria If reached: 6.3% All sims: 5.0% Win rate: 51.3% 
South Africa If reached: 5.1% All sims: 4.1% Win rate: 69.6% 
Austria If reached: 4.8% All sims: 3.8% Win rate: 43.3% 
Egypt If reached: 4.7% All sims: 3.8% Win rate: 50.8% 
New Zealand If reached: 4.6% All sims: 3.7% Win rate: 75.9% 
Paraguay If reached: 3.9% All sims: 3.2% Win rate: 51.6% 
Belgium If reached: 1.7% All sims: 1.3% Win rate: 29.9% 
Jordan If reached: 1.6% All sims: 1.3% Win rate: 77.2% 
Australia If reached: 1.6% All sims: 1.3% Win rate: 64.2% 
Argentina If reached: 1.3% All sims: 1.0% Win rate: 21.2% 
Ecuador If reached: 0.9% All sims: 0.7% Win rate: 40.5% 
Ivory Coast If reached: 0.8% All sims: 0.7% Win rate: 41.2% 
Senegal If reached: 0.5% All sims: 0.4% Win rate: 44.7% 
Germany If reached: 0.4% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 24.5% 
Norway If reached: 0.3% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 32.6% 
Curaçao If reached: 0.2% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 78.6% 
France If reached: 0.1% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 23.6% 
Japan If reached: 0.1% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 35.3% 
Iraq If reached: 0.1% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 78.0% 
Sweden If reached: 0.1% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 42.9% 
Netherlands If reached: 0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 27.3% 
Tunisia If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 69.2% R16
Portugal If reached: 16.7% All sims: 6.6% Win rate: 23.8% Netherlands If reached: 12.1% All sims: 4.8% Win rate: 28.3% Belgium If reached: 9.9% All sims: 3.9% Win rate: 32.4% 
Morocco If reached: 7.8% All sims: 3.1% Win rate: 38.6% 
Colombia If reached: 6.5% All sims: 2.6% Win rate: 35.8% 
Brazil If reached: 6.5% All sims: 2.6% Win rate: 21.9% Japan If reached: 5.2% All sims: 2.1% Win rate: 39.7% Sweden If reached: 4.0% All sims: 1.6% Win rate: 42.3% 
Scotland If reached: 3.5% All sims: 1.4% Win rate: 52.0% 
Ghana If reached: 2.9% All sims: 1.2% Win rate: 53.4% 
Croatia If reached: 2.8% All sims: 1.1% Win rate: 35.1% Egypt If reached: 2.3% All sims: 0.9% Win rate: 52.0% Senegal If reached: 1.9% All sims: 0.8% Win rate: 40.9% 
England If reached: 1.8% All sims: 0.7% Win rate: 24.8% Czechia If reached: 1.7% All sims: 0.7% Win rate: 47.7% Mexico If reached: 1.6% All sims: 0.6% Win rate: 37.3% South Korea If reached: 1.6% All sims: 0.6% Win rate: 47.0% Norway If reached: 1.6% All sims: 0.6% Win rate: 27.7% 
DR Congo If reached: 1.2% All sims: 0.5% Win rate: 54.9% France If reached: 1.0% All sims: 0.4% Win rate: 16.0% 
Panama If reached: 0.9% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 66.8% South Africa If reached: 0.7% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 68.1% Ivory Coast If reached: 0.7% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 41.9% Ecuador If reached: 0.6% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 39.7% 
Haiti If reached: 0.6% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 71.8% Germany If reached: 0.5% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 31.5% Algeria If reached: 0.5% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 51.0% Iran If reached: 0.5% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 61.3% Austria If reached: 0.4% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 42.0% 
Uzbekistan If reached: 0.3% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 64.9% Tunisia If reached: 0.3% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 72.5% 
Saudi Arabia If reached: 0.2% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 69.8% Argentina If reached: 0.2% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 18.2% USA If reached: 0.2% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 40.0% 
Uruguay If reached: 0.2% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 36.7% Paraguay If reached: 0.1% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 50.9% New Zealand If reached: 0.1% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 77.2% Iraq If reached: 0.1% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 73.1% Curaçao If reached: 0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 63.6% 
Cape Verde If reached: 0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 68.1% Türkiye If reached: 0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 36.1% 
Spain If reached: 0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 17.2% Australia If reached: 0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 66.7% Jordan If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 61.1% QF
Argentina If reached: 14.4% All sims: 2.0% Win rate: 20.1% France If reached: 13.6% All sims: 1.9% Win rate: 18.3% Spain If reached: 13.5% All sims: 1.9% Win rate: 18.3% Germany If reached: 8.3% All sims: 1.2% Win rate: 26.7% Uruguay If reached: 7.1% All sims: 1.0% Win rate: 34.5% Türkiye If reached: 3.8% All sims: 0.5% Win rate: 40.8% USA If reached: 3.6% All sims: 0.5% Win rate: 39.2% Norway If reached: 3.5% All sims: 0.5% Win rate: 32.0% Austria If reached: 2.8% All sims: 0.4% Win rate: 44.6% Belgium If reached: 2.6% All sims: 0.4% Win rate: 37.4% Croatia If reached: 2.3% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 36.0% England If reached: 2.3% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 24.7% Portugal If reached: 2.0% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 18.4% Ecuador If reached: 2.0% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 40.1% Colombia If reached: 1.9% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 35.1% Paraguay If reached: 1.9% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 56.4% Egypt If reached: 1.7% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 56.1% Ivory Coast If reached: 1.5% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 47.1% Netherlands If reached: 1.4% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 36.2% Senegal If reached: 1.2% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 37.1% Japan If reached: 1.2% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 38.4% Algeria If reached: 1.2% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 49.4% Sweden If reached: 1.2% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 44.6% Morocco If reached: 0.9% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 39.3% Brazil If reached: 0.8% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 23.2% Scotland If reached: 0.5% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 44.4% Ghana If reached: 0.5% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 57.7% Australia If reached: 0.5% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 60.3% DR Congo If reached: 0.4% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 48.1% Iran If reached: 0.4% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 73.7% Cape Verde If reached: 0.2% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 68.0% Saudi Arabia If reached: 0.2% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 68.0% New Zealand If reached: 0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 82.4% Uzbekistan If reached: 0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Tunisia If reached: 0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 54.5% Czechia If reached: 0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 71.4% Panama If reached: 0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 71.4% South Korea If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 66.7% Haiti If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 66.7% Iraq If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Mexico If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Curaçao If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Jordan If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% SF
Spain If reached: 11.6% All sims: 0.5% Win rate: 20.0% England If reached: 10.2% All sims: 0.4% Win rate: 21.2% France If reached: 9.2% All sims: 0.4% Win rate: 18.8% Brazil If reached: 7.7% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 20.3% Belgium If reached: 5.3% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 33.3% Netherlands If reached: 4.8% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 29.8% Germany If reached: 4.6% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 28.5% Croatia If reached: 4.2% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 30.3% Norway If reached: 4.1% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 34.9% Portugal If reached: 3.1% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 23.4% Mexico If reached: 2.9% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 35.2% Morocco If reached: 2.7% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 36.0% Japan If reached: 2.5% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 45.2% Colombia If reached: 2.4% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 40.0% Argentina If reached: 2.3% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 24.0% Ecuador If reached: 2.1% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 42.7% USA If reached: 2.0% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 35.4% Ivory Coast If reached: 1.8% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 39.5% Türkiye If reached: 1.8% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 48.7% Senegal If reached: 1.7% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 41.7% Uruguay If reached: 1.7% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 40.8% South Korea If reached: 1.7% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 40.8% Sweden If reached: 1.5% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 34.4% 
Switzerland If reached: 1.2% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 46.9% Austria If reached: 1.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 60.9% Czechia If reached: 1.0% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 52.4% 
Bosnia-Herz. If reached: 0.7% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Paraguay If reached: 0.7% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 54.8% Scotland If reached: 0.6% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% DR Congo If reached: 0.5% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 45.5% Algeria If reached: 0.5% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 47.4% Ghana If reached: 0.4% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 53.3% Egypt If reached: 0.4% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 44.4% Saudi Arabia If reached: 0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Cape Verde If reached: 0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 66.7% South Africa If reached: 0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 80.0% Australia If reached: 0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Uzbekistan If reached: 0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Jordan If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Haiti If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Tunisia If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% 
Qatar If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Panama If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% New Zealand If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Iran If reached: <0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 0.0% Final
France If reached: 11.4% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 18.8% Argentina If reached: 10.7% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 21.5% Spain If reached: 10.3% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 16.2% England If reached: 9.0% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 14.9% Portugal If reached: 8.5% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 21.5% Brazil If reached: 7.4% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 25.5% Germany If reached: 5.4% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 17.6% Netherlands If reached: 4.6% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 31.0% Belgium If reached: 3.9% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 32.7% Norway If reached: 3.3% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 23.8% Uruguay If reached: 2.4% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 45.2% Switzerland If reached: 2.4% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 58.1% Colombia If reached: 2.2% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 28.6% USA If reached: 2.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 44.4% Croatia If reached: 2.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 38.5% Mexico If reached: 1.8% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 39.1% Morocco If reached: 1.7% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 42.9% Türkiye If reached: 1.7% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 36.4% Ecuador If reached: 1.6% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 45.0% Senegal If reached: 1.0% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 23.1% Austria If reached: 0.9% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 41.7% Japan If reached: 0.9% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 36.4% Ivory Coast If reached: 0.9% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 45.5% Czechia If reached: 0.6% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 28.6% South Korea If reached: 0.6% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Egypt If reached: 0.6% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Algeria If reached: 0.6% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 28.6% Scotland If reached: 0.5% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 83.3% Paraguay If reached: 0.4% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 20.0% Ghana If reached: 0.2% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 33.3% Sweden If reached: 0.2% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 33.3% Bosnia-Herz. If reached: 0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Saudi Arabia If reached: 0.1% All sims: <0.1% Win rate: 0.0% Finish 1st
Canada opponent pool if finishing 1st
For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.
R32
Iran If reached: 18.0% Path sims: 18.0% Win rate: 69.2% Algeria If reached: 17.9% Path sims: 17.9% Win rate: 51.3% Austria If reached: 13.7% Path sims: 13.7% Win rate: 43.3% Egypt If reached: 13.5% Path sims: 13.5% Win rate: 50.8% New Zealand If reached: 13.1% Path sims: 13.1% Win rate: 75.9% Belgium If reached: 4.7% Path sims: 4.7% Win rate: 29.9% Jordan If reached: 4.6% Path sims: 4.6% Win rate: 77.2% Argentina If reached: 3.7% Path sims: 3.7% Win rate: 21.2% Ecuador If reached: 2.5% Path sims: 2.5% Win rate: 40.2% Ivory Coast If reached: 2.4% Path sims: 2.4% Win rate: 41.2% Senegal If reached: 1.5% Path sims: 1.5% Win rate: 44.7% Germany If reached: 1.2% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 24.5% Norway If reached: 1.0% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 32.6% Curaçao If reached: 0.7% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 78.6% France If reached: 0.4% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 23.6% Japan If reached: 0.3% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 35.3% Iraq If reached: 0.3% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 78.0% Sweden If reached: 0.3% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 42.9% Netherlands If reached: 0.2% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 27.3% Tunisia If reached: 0.1% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 69.2% R16
Portugal If reached: 42.8% Path sims: 23.3% Win rate: 23.8% Colombia If reached: 16.8% Path sims: 9.2% Win rate: 35.8% Ghana If reached: 7.6% Path sims: 4.1% Win rate: 53.4% Croatia If reached: 7.1% Path sims: 3.9% Win rate: 35.1% England If reached: 4.6% Path sims: 2.5% Win rate: 24.8% Senegal If reached: 3.7% Path sims: 2.0% Win rate: 41.0% DR Congo If reached: 3.1% Path sims: 1.7% Win rate: 54.9% Norway If reached: 3.0% Path sims: 1.7% Win rate: 28.2% Panama If reached: 2.2% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 66.8% France If reached: 2.0% Path sims: 1.1% Win rate: 15.3% Ivory Coast If reached: 1.5% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 41.0% Ecuador If reached: 1.5% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 39.3% Germany If reached: 1.0% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 31.4% Uzbekistan If reached: 0.9% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 64.9% USA If reached: 0.4% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 40.0% Paraguay If reached: 0.3% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 50.9% Austria If reached: 0.3% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 37.3% Iraq If reached: 0.3% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 71.4% Türkiye If reached: 0.2% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 36.1% Algeria If reached: 0.2% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 54.1% Australia If reached: 0.2% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 66.7% Curaçao If reached: 0.1% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 64.7% Argentina If reached: 0.1% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 16.7% Jordan If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% QF
Argentina If reached: 35.5% Path sims: 6.4% Win rate: 20.2% Uruguay If reached: 15.0% Path sims: 2.7% Win rate: 34.6% Spain If reached: 11.0% Path sims: 2.0% Win rate: 20.0% Türkiye If reached: 7.6% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 38.3% USA If reached: 7.6% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 38.5% Belgium If reached: 6.6% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 36.1% Egypt If reached: 4.5% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 55.5% Austria If reached: 4.4% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 44.1% Paraguay If reached: 3.4% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 55.0% Algeria If reached: 1.7% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 54.8% Iran If reached: 1.0% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 75.5% Australia If reached: 0.9% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 58.1% Saudi Arabia If reached: 0.4% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 70.0% Cape Verde If reached: 0.3% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 56.3% New Zealand If reached: 0.3% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 76.9% SF
England If reached: 19.0% Path sims: 1.1% Win rate: 20.3% Brazil If reached: 15.6% Path sims: 0.9% Win rate: 21.5% France If reached: 9.6% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 20.6% Norway If reached: 6.6% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 32.1% Germany If reached: 5.8% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 25.8% Croatia If reached: 4.9% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 35.9% Netherlands If reached: 4.8% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 33.8% Ecuador If reached: 4.0% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 46.9% Mexico If reached: 3.9% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 38.7% Japan If reached: 3.4% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 52.7% Ivory Coast If reached: 3.4% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 42.6% Morocco If reached: 3.3% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 30.2% Senegal If reached: 2.8% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 51.1% Portugal If reached: 2.2% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 27.8% South Korea If reached: 2.1% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 47.1% Colombia If reached: 1.8% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 41.4% Sweden If reached: 1.7% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 29.6% Scotland If reached: 0.9% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 60.0% Czechia If reached: 0.8% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 46.2% Uruguay If reached: 0.8% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 38.5% DR Congo If reached: 0.8% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 38.5% Spain If reached: 0.6% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 20.0% Cape Verde If reached: 0.2% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 66.7% Uzbekistan If reached: 0.2% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Saudi Arabia If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Ghana If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Haiti If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Tunisia If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Argentina If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 0.0% Panama If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Austria If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 0.0% Algeria If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 0.0% Final
France If reached: 17.0% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 20.5% Spain If reached: 16.0% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 14.1% Netherlands If reached: 8.2% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 40.0% Germany If reached: 7.6% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 21.6% Belgium If reached: 7.4% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 27.8% England If reached: 5.1% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 12.0% Argentina If reached: 4.3% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 14.3% Brazil If reached: 3.9% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 26.3% Norway If reached: 3.1% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 40.0% Mexico If reached: 2.9% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 42.9% Morocco If reached: 2.5% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Türkiye If reached: 2.5% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 33.3% Switzerland If reached: 2.5% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% USA If reached: 2.0% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 40.0% Portugal If reached: 1.8% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 33.3% Japan If reached: 1.8% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 33.3% Colombia If reached: 1.6% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 0.0% Croatia If reached: 1.4% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 28.6% Ecuador If reached: 1.4% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 71.4% Uruguay If reached: 1.2% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 66.7% Czechia If reached: 0.8% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 25.0% South Korea If reached: 0.8% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Austria If reached: 0.8% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 75.0% Sweden If reached: 0.6% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 33.3% Ivory Coast If reached: 0.6% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 33.3% Scotland If reached: 0.4% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Ghana If reached: 0.4% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Paraguay If reached: 0.4% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 0.0% Egypt If reached: 0.4% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Algeria If reached: 0.4% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Senegal If reached: 0.2% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Finish 2nd
Canada opponent pool if finishing 2nd
For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.
R32
South Korea If reached: 30.9% Path sims: 30.9% Win rate: 44.5% Mexico If reached: 29.4% Path sims: 29.4% Win rate: 39.4% Czechia If reached: 27.3% Path sims: 27.3% Win rate: 52.0% South Africa If reached: 12.5% Path sims: 12.5% Win rate: 69.6% R16
Netherlands If reached: 30.4% Path sims: 14.6% Win rate: 28.3% Morocco If reached: 19.4% Path sims: 9.4% Win rate: 38.6% Brazil If reached: 16.3% Path sims: 7.9% Win rate: 21.9% Japan If reached: 13.1% Path sims: 6.3% Win rate: 39.7% Sweden If reached: 10.0% Path sims: 4.8% Win rate: 42.3% Scotland If reached: 8.7% Path sims: 4.2% Win rate: 52.0% Haiti If reached: 1.5% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 71.8% Tunisia If reached: 0.8% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 72.5% QF
France If reached: 34.3% Path sims: 5.8% Win rate: 18.3% Germany If reached: 20.8% Path sims: 3.5% Win rate: 26.7% Norway If reached: 8.8% Path sims: 1.5% Win rate: 32.0% Ecuador If reached: 5.0% Path sims: 0.9% Win rate: 40.1% Ivory Coast If reached: 3.8% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 47.1% Netherlands If reached: 3.6% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 35.9% Japan If reached: 3.1% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 38.4% Senegal If reached: 3.0% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 37.1% Sweden If reached: 3.0% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 44.3% Türkiye If reached: 2.7% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 47.3% Morocco If reached: 2.2% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 39.7% USA If reached: 2.1% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 41.4% Brazil If reached: 2.0% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 23.2% Paraguay If reached: 1.7% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 58.9% Scotland If reached: 1.3% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 44.4% Australia If reached: 0.5% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 63.3% Belgium If reached: 0.4% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 54.2% Uruguay If reached: 0.4% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 55.0% Egypt If reached: 0.2% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 70.0% Tunisia If reached: 0.2% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 54.5% Cape Verde If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 85.7% South Korea If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 66.7% Spain If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 16.7% Haiti If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 66.7% Czechia If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 66.7% Iran If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 62.5% Saudi Arabia If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 33.3% New Zealand If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Iraq If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Curaçao If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% SF
Spain If reached: 28.3% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 20.0% Belgium If reached: 13.1% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 33.5% England If reached: 7.1% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 22.9% Croatia If reached: 5.8% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 25.8% Argentina If reached: 5.6% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 24.5% Portugal If reached: 5.5% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 21.7% USA If reached: 4.3% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 31.0% Colombia If reached: 4.3% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 39.4% Türkiye If reached: 4.0% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 47.0% Uruguay If reached: 3.3% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 41.8% Austria If reached: 2.7% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 62.2% Mexico If reached: 2.0% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 30.3% Switzerland If reached: 1.3% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 57.1% South Korea If reached: 1.3% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 36.4% Paraguay If reached: 1.2% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Bosnia-Herz. If reached: 1.1% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 44.4% Algeria If reached: 1.1% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Egypt If reached: 1.1% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 44.4% Norway If reached: 1.0% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 35.3% Senegal If reached: 1.0% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 35.3% Ghana If reached: 0.8% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 53.8% Czechia If reached: 0.8% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 61.5% France If reached: 0.7% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 36.4% DR Congo If reached: 0.5% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 55.6% Ivory Coast If reached: 0.5% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 44.4% Germany If reached: 0.3% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 60.0% Ecuador If reached: 0.3% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 20.0% South Africa If reached: 0.3% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 80.0% Netherlands If reached: 0.2% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 66.7% Jordan If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Sweden If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 0.0% Australia If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Saudi Arabia If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% New Zealand If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Iran If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 0.0% Final
Argentina If reached: 16.3% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 21.4% Portugal If reached: 11.7% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 20.0% Brazil If reached: 9.7% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 22.0% France If reached: 9.5% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 16.3% England If reached: 9.3% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 14.6% Spain If reached: 6.6% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 14.7% Norway If reached: 4.5% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 13.0% Uruguay If reached: 3.3% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 35.3% Germany If reached: 3.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 18.8% Colombia If reached: 2.9% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 33.3% USA If reached: 2.7% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Netherlands If reached: 2.5% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 7.7% Switzerland If reached: 2.5% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 69.2% Croatia If reached: 2.3% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 33.3% Senegal If reached: 1.4% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 14.3% Ecuador If reached: 1.4% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 28.6% Mexico If reached: 1.4% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 14.3% Türkiye If reached: 1.2% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Morocco If reached: 1.0% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 40.0% Belgium If reached: 1.0% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 40.0% Ivory Coast If reached: 1.0% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 20.0% Austria If reached: 0.8% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 25.0% Czechia If reached: 0.6% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 33.3% Egypt If reached: 0.6% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 66.7% South Korea If reached: 0.6% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 33.3% Algeria If reached: 0.6% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 0.0% Paraguay If reached: 0.4% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Scotland If reached: 0.4% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Japan If reached: 0.4% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Bosnia-Herz. If reached: 0.2% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Saudi Arabia If reached: 0.2% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 0.0% Finish 3rd
Canada opponent pool if finishing 3rd
For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.
R32
USA If reached: 39.7% Path sims: 29.6% Win rate: 38.3% Türkiye If reached: 37.3% Path sims: 27.7% Win rate: 39.3% Paraguay If reached: 16.2% Path sims: 12.1% Win rate: 51.6% Australia If reached: 6.7% Path sims: 4.9% Win rate: 64.2% Germany If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 25.0% Ivory Coast If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 42.9% Ecuador If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 71.4% R16
Belgium If reached: 46.7% Path sims: 14.8% Win rate: 32.4% Egypt If reached: 10.9% Path sims: 3.4% Win rate: 52.0% Czechia If reached: 7.9% Path sims: 2.5% Win rate: 47.7% South Korea If reached: 7.4% Path sims: 2.4% Win rate: 47.0% Mexico If reached: 7.3% Path sims: 2.3% Win rate: 37.3% South Africa If reached: 3.1% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 68.1% Senegal If reached: 2.4% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 40.7% Iran If reached: 2.3% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 61.3% Norway If reached: 1.9% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 26.5% Algeria If reached: 1.9% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 50.3% Austria If reached: 1.5% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 43.9% France If reached: 1.1% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 18.3% Uruguay If reached: 0.9% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 36.7% Argentina If reached: 0.8% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 18.6% Saudi Arabia If reached: 0.8% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 69.8% New Zealand If reached: 0.7% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 77.2% Cape Verde If reached: 0.6% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 68.1% Ivory Coast If reached: 0.5% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 46.7% Ecuador If reached: 0.3% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 42.9% Germany If reached: 0.3% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 31.8% Spain If reached: 0.3% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 17.2% Jordan If reached: 0.2% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 53.3% Curaçao If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 60.0% Iraq If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 80.0% QF
Spain If reached: 39.5% Path sims: 5.0% Win rate: 17.5% England If reached: 9.7% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 24.7% Croatia If reached: 9.5% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 36.0% Portugal If reached: 8.4% Path sims: 1.1% Win rate: 18.4% Colombia If reached: 7.9% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 35.1% Argentina If reached: 6.5% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 19.4% Uruguay If reached: 6.3% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 32.5% Austria If reached: 5.2% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 45.1% Algeria If reached: 2.4% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 43.9% Ghana If reached: 2.1% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 57.7% DR Congo If reached: 1.6% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 48.1% Uzbekistan If reached: 0.4% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Panama If reached: 0.2% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 71.4% Cape Verde If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Saudi Arabia If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Sweden If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Netherlands If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Morocco If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 0.0% Czechia If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Mexico If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Jordan If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% SF
France If reached: 24.7% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 16.5% Netherlands If reached: 13.3% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 26.3% Germany If reached: 10.7% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 29.5% Brazil If reached: 7.8% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 15.9% Morocco If reached: 6.9% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 41.0% Japan If reached: 5.5% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 36.7% Norway If reached: 5.2% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 41.3% Sweden If reached: 3.6% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 40.6% Switzerland If reached: 3.2% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 39.3% Mexico If reached: 3.1% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 33.3% Ecuador If reached: 2.3% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 35.0% Czechia If reached: 1.8% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 50.0% South Korea If reached: 1.7% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 33.3% Ivory Coast If reached: 1.5% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 23.1% Bosnia-Herz. If reached: 1.4% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 58.3% Paraguay If reached: 1.2% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 63.6% Scotland If reached: 1.2% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 36.4% USA If reached: 1.2% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 63.6% Senegal If reached: 1.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 10.0% Türkiye If reached: 1.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 60.0% Spain If reached: 0.3% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 33.3% Australia If reached: 0.3% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Uruguay If reached: 0.3% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 33.3% Qatar If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% England If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Belgium If reached: 0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 0.0% Final
England If reached: 15.6% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 17.1% Portugal If reached: 14.4% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 21.1% Argentina If reached: 11.4% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 26.7% Brazil If reached: 9.5% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 32.0% Spain If reached: 6.8% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 27.8% Germany If reached: 5.7% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 6.7% France If reached: 4.6% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 16.7% Uruguay If reached: 3.0% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Belgium If reached: 3.0% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Croatia If reached: 2.7% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 57.1% Switzerland If reached: 2.3% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 50.0% Ecuador If reached: 2.3% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 33.3% Colombia If reached: 1.9% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 60.0% Netherlands If reached: 1.9% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 20.0% Senegal If reached: 1.9% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 20.0% Morocco If reached: 1.5% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 25.0% Austria If reached: 1.5% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 25.0% Türkiye If reached: 1.5% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 25.0% Norway If reached: 1.5% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 25.0% Ivory Coast If reached: 1.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% USA If reached: 1.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 33.3% Egypt If reached: 1.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 33.3% Mexico If reached: 0.8% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Scotland If reached: 0.8% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Algeria If reached: 0.8% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 0.0% Ghana If reached: 0.4% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 0.0% South Korea If reached: 0.4% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 100.0% Paraguay If reached: 0.4% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 0.0% Squad
Current squad
| Pos | Player | Age | Height | Club | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GK | Dayne St. Clair | 29 | 1,91m | Inter Miami CF | €3.5m |
| GK | Maxime Crépeau | 32 | 1,81m | Orlando City SC | €2.0m |
| GK | Owen Goodman | 22 | 1,93m | Barnsley FC | €550k |
| LB | Alphonso Davies | 26 | 1,85m | Bayern Munich | €40.0m |
| RB | Alistair Johnston | 27 | 1,80m | Celtic FC | €8.0m |
| CB | Moïse Bombito | 26 | 1,91m | OGC Nice | €8.0m |
| CB | Alfie Jones | 28 | 1,90m | Middlesbrough FC | €6.0m |
| CB | Derek Cornelius | 28 | 1,87m | Olympique Marseille | €2.5m |
| CB | Joel Waterman | 30 | 1,88m | Chicago Fire FC | €2.5m |
| RB | Richie Laryea | 31 | 1,75m | Toronto FC | €1.0m |
| CB | Luc De Fougerolles | 20 | 1,83m | FCV Dender EH | €1.0m |
| DM | Niko Sigur | 22 | 1,80m | HNK Hajduk Split | €4.0m |
| CM | Ismaël Koné | 23 | 1,88m | US Sassuolo | €25.0m |
| CM | Stephen Eustaquio | 29 | 1,78m | Los Angeles FC | €7.0m |
| CM | Nathan-Dylan Saliba | 22 | 1,73m | RSC Anderlecht | €6.0m |
| CM | Jonathan Osorio | 34 | 1,75m | Toronto FC | €1.2m |
| CM | Mathieu Choinière | 27 | 1,75m | Los Angeles FC | €800k |
| RW | Tajon Buchanan | 27 | 1,83m | Villarreal CF | €12.0m |
| LM | Ali Ahmed | 25 | 1,80m | Norwich City | €5.0m |
| CF | Jonathan David | 26 | 1,78m | Juventus FC | €30.0m |
| CF | Promise David | 24 | 1,95m | Union Saint-Gilloise | €17.0m |
| CF | Tani Oluwaseyi | 26 | 1,88m | Villarreal CF | €8.0m |
| CF | Cyle Larin | 31 | 1,88m | Southampton FC | €2.5m |
| LW | Marcelo Flores | 23 | 1,71m | Tigres UANL | €4.5m |
| LW | Liam Millar | 26 | 1,76m | Hull City | €3.0m |
| LW | Jacob Shaffelburg | 26 | 1,78m | Los Angeles FC | €3.0m |