Group
Finish probabilities
1st 0%
2nd 100.0%
3rd place 0% Qualified from 3rd 0% Eliminated in 3rd 0%
4th 0%
Group B
Canada
The most exciting Canadian football generation in history, which is a low bar that they have cleared with room to spare. Davies provides genuine world-class pace on the wing. They press relentlessly and believe in themselves, which is new. The 2026 World Cup is their first ever, and whether that occasion lifts or overwhelms them is the real question.
This profile summarizes Canada's World Cup 2026 simulation path from the latest current-state snapshot: group outlook, finish distribution, possible knockout routes, opponent pools, squad context, and title chances.
Champion 0%
Group qualification 100%
Squad market €204.1m
Avg age 27.0
Avg height 1.827m
Manager Jesse Marsch
Saved forecast
Forecast as of Updated 2026-07-15 10:47 UTC, based on 10k current-state simulations. Tournament-wide official results included at that time stay fixed. These are saved model forecasts, not the team's actual final finish.
Tournament-wide result cutoff: France 0-2 Spain
Guide
How to read this team profile
Group finish and stage reach values are model outputs from the latest current-state team profile snapshot. Path sections show how Canada's route changes by group finish, while opponent pools summarize the teams most often appearing in each round.
Other forecast pages may show a different saved date. The interactive replay simulator is separate: changing Team Strength settings creates alternative scenarios without changing this saved forecast.
Tournament
Stage reach probabilities
R32 100%
R16 100%
QF 0%
SF 0%
Final 0%
Champion 0%
Conditional path
Path by group finish
| Finish | Sample | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | No longer possible | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2nd | 100.0% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 3rd | n/a | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Overall opponent pool
Most common opponents by round
If reached shows the opponent split among this team's matches in that round. All sims shows how often the matchup happens across the latest current-state snapshot.
R32
South Africa If reached: 100.0% All sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 100.0% R16
Morocco If reached: 100.0% All sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 0% QF
No opponent samples.
SF
No opponent samples.
Final
No opponent samples.
Finish 1st
Canada opponent pool if finishing 1st
For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.
R32
No longer possible
R16
No longer possible
QF
No longer possible
SF
No longer possible
Final
No longer possible
Finish 2nd
Canada opponent pool if finishing 2nd
For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.
R32
South Africa If reached: 100.0% Path sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 100.0% R16
Morocco If reached: 100.0% Path sims: 100.0% Matchup win rate: 0% QF
Not enough samples.
SF
Not enough samples.
Final
Not enough samples.
Finish 3rd
Canada opponent pool if finishing 3rd
For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.
R32
Not enough samples.
R16
Not enough samples.
QF
Not enough samples.
SF
Not enough samples.
Final
Not enough samples.
Squad
Current squad
| Pos | Player | Age | Height | Club | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GK | Dayne St. Clair | 29 | 1,91m | Inter Miami CF | €3.5m |
| GK | Maxime Crépeau | 32 | 1,81m | Orlando City SC | €2.0m |
| GK | Owen Goodman | 22 | 1,93m | Barnsley FC | €550k |
| LB | Alphonso Davies | 26 | 1,85m | Bayern Munich | €40.0m |
| CB | Moïse Bombito | 26 | 1,91m | OGC Nice | €8.0m |
| RB | Alistair Johnston | 27 | 1,80m | Celtic FC | €8.0m |
| CB | Alfie Jones | 28 | 1,90m | Middlesbrough FC | €6.0m |
| CB | Derek Cornelius | 28 | 1,87m | Olympique Marseille | €2.5m |
| CB | Joel Waterman | 30 | 1,88m | Chicago Fire FC | €2.5m |
| RB | Richie Laryea | 31 | 1,75m | Toronto FC | €1.0m |
| CB | Luc De Fougerolles | 20 | 1,83m | FCV Dender EH | €1.0m |
| DM | Niko Sigur | 22 | 1,80m | HNK Hajduk Split | €4.0m |
| CM | Ismaël Koné 🚑 | 23 | 1,88m | US Sassuolo | €25.0m |
| CM | Stephen Eustaquio | 29 | 1,78m | Los Angeles FC | €7.0m |
| CM | Nathan-Dylan Saliba | 22 | 1,73m | RSC Anderlecht | €6.0m |
| CM | Jonathan Osorio | 34 | 1,75m | Toronto FC | €1.2m |
| CM | Mathieu Choinière | 27 | 1,75m | Los Angeles FC | €800k |
| RW | Tajon Buchanan | 27 | 1,83m | Villarreal CF | €12.0m |
| LM | Ali Ahmed | 25 | 1,80m | Norwich City | €5.0m |
| CF | Jonathan David | 26 | 1,78m | Juventus FC | €30.0m |
| CF | Promise David | 24 | 1,95m | Union Saint-Gilloise | €17.0m |
| CF | Tani Oluwaseyi | 26 | 1,88m | Villarreal CF | €8.0m |
| CF | Cyle Larin | 31 | 1,88m | Southampton FC | €2.5m |
| LW | Marcelo Flores | 23 | 1,71m | Tigres UANL | €4.5m |
| LW | Liam Millar | 26 | 1,76m | Hull City | €3.0m |
| LW | Jacob Shaffelburg | 26 | 1,78m | Los Angeles FC | €3.0m |
Important note: This simulator and its probability outputs are for entertainment and informational purposes only. They are not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, trade, or participate in any prediction market. No real-money contest is offered or accepted on baplab.