Group B

Canada Canada

This profile is based on 100,000 simulations using the current WC26 simulator engine. The numbers are a model snapshot, not a guarantee. Team ratings, squads and injury updates may change over time.

Champion 0.3%
Group qualification 80.3%
Squad value €204.1m
Avg age 27.0
Avg height 1.827m
Manager Jesse Marsch

Group

Finish probabilities

1st 28.1%
2nd 32.7%
3rd qualified 19.5%
3rd not qualified 6.7%
4th 13.0%

Tournament

Stage reach probabilities

R32 80.3%
R16 39.4%
QF 13.9%
SF 4.2%
Final 1.3%
Champion 0.3%

Conditional path

Path by group finish

Finish Sample R32R16QFSFFinalChampion
1st 28.1% 100.0%54.6%17.9%5.7%1.7%0.5%
2nd 32.7% 100.0%48.2%17.0%5.1%1.6%0.4%
3rd 26.2% 74.4%31.7%12.8%3.4%1.0%0.3%

Overall opponent pool

Most common opponents by round

If reached shows the opponent split among this team's matches in that round. All sims shows how often the matchup happens across the full 100,000-simulation snapshot.

R32

South Korea South Korea If reached: 12.6% All sims: 10.1% Win rate: 44.5%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 11.9% All sims: 9.6% Win rate: 39.4%
Czechia Czechia If reached: 11.1% All sims: 8.9% Win rate: 52.0%
USA USA If reached: 9.7% All sims: 7.8% Win rate: 38.3%
Türkiye Türkiye If reached: 9.1% All sims: 7.3% Win rate: 39.3%

R16

Portugal Portugal If reached: 16.7% All sims: 6.6% Win rate: 23.8%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 12.1% All sims: 4.8% Win rate: 28.3%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 9.9% All sims: 3.9% Win rate: 32.4%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 7.8% All sims: 3.1% Win rate: 38.6%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 6.5% All sims: 2.6% Win rate: 35.8%

QF

Argentina Argentina If reached: 14.4% All sims: 2.0% Win rate: 20.1%
France France If reached: 13.6% All sims: 1.9% Win rate: 18.3%
Spain Spain If reached: 13.5% All sims: 1.9% Win rate: 18.3%
Germany Germany If reached: 8.3% All sims: 1.2% Win rate: 26.7%
Uruguay Uruguay If reached: 7.1% All sims: 1.0% Win rate: 34.5%

SF

Spain Spain If reached: 11.6% All sims: 0.5% Win rate: 20.0%
England England If reached: 10.2% All sims: 0.4% Win rate: 21.2%
France France If reached: 9.2% All sims: 0.4% Win rate: 18.8%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 7.7% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 20.3%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 5.3% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 33.3%

Final

France France If reached: 11.4% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 18.8%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 10.7% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 21.5%
Spain Spain If reached: 10.3% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 16.2%
England England If reached: 9.0% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 14.9%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 8.5% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 21.5%

Finish 1st

Canada opponent pool if finishing 1st

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Iran Iran If reached: 18.0% Path sims: 18.0% Win rate: 69.2%
Algeria Algeria If reached: 17.9% Path sims: 17.9% Win rate: 51.3%
Austria Austria If reached: 13.7% Path sims: 13.7% Win rate: 43.3%
Egypt Egypt If reached: 13.5% Path sims: 13.5% Win rate: 50.8%
New Zealand New Zealand If reached: 13.1% Path sims: 13.1% Win rate: 75.9%

R16

Portugal Portugal If reached: 42.8% Path sims: 23.3% Win rate: 23.8%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 16.8% Path sims: 9.2% Win rate: 35.8%
Ghana Ghana If reached: 7.6% Path sims: 4.1% Win rate: 53.4%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 7.1% Path sims: 3.9% Win rate: 35.1%
England England If reached: 4.6% Path sims: 2.5% Win rate: 24.8%

QF

Argentina Argentina If reached: 35.5% Path sims: 6.4% Win rate: 20.2%
Uruguay Uruguay If reached: 15.0% Path sims: 2.7% Win rate: 34.6%
Spain Spain If reached: 11.0% Path sims: 2.0% Win rate: 20.0%
Türkiye Türkiye If reached: 7.6% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 38.3%
USA USA If reached: 7.6% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 38.5%

SF

England England If reached: 19.0% Path sims: 1.1% Win rate: 20.3%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 15.6% Path sims: 0.9% Win rate: 21.5%
France France If reached: 9.6% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 20.6%
Norway Norway If reached: 6.6% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 32.1%
Germany Germany If reached: 5.8% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 25.8%

Final

France France If reached: 17.0% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 20.5%
Spain Spain If reached: 16.0% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 14.1%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 8.2% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 40.0%
Germany Germany If reached: 7.6% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 21.6%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 7.4% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 27.8%

Finish 2nd

Canada opponent pool if finishing 2nd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

South Korea South Korea If reached: 30.9% Path sims: 30.9% Win rate: 44.5%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 29.4% Path sims: 29.4% Win rate: 39.4%
Czechia Czechia If reached: 27.3% Path sims: 27.3% Win rate: 52.0%
South Africa South Africa If reached: 12.5% Path sims: 12.5% Win rate: 69.6%

R16

Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 30.4% Path sims: 14.6% Win rate: 28.3%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 19.4% Path sims: 9.4% Win rate: 38.6%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 16.3% Path sims: 7.9% Win rate: 21.9%
Japan Japan If reached: 13.1% Path sims: 6.3% Win rate: 39.7%
Sweden Sweden If reached: 10.0% Path sims: 4.8% Win rate: 42.3%

QF

France France If reached: 34.3% Path sims: 5.8% Win rate: 18.3%
Germany Germany If reached: 20.8% Path sims: 3.5% Win rate: 26.7%
Norway Norway If reached: 8.8% Path sims: 1.5% Win rate: 32.0%
Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 5.0% Path sims: 0.9% Win rate: 40.1%
Ivory Coast Ivory Coast If reached: 3.8% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 47.1%

SF

Spain Spain If reached: 28.3% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 20.0%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 13.1% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 33.5%
England England If reached: 7.1% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 22.9%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 5.8% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 25.8%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 5.6% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 24.5%

Final

Argentina Argentina If reached: 16.3% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 21.4%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 11.7% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 20.0%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 9.7% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 22.0%
France France If reached: 9.5% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 16.3%
England England If reached: 9.3% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 14.6%

Finish 3rd

Canada opponent pool if finishing 3rd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

USA USA If reached: 39.7% Path sims: 29.6% Win rate: 38.3%
Türkiye Türkiye If reached: 37.3% Path sims: 27.7% Win rate: 39.3%
Paraguay Paraguay If reached: 16.2% Path sims: 12.1% Win rate: 51.6%
Australia Australia If reached: 6.7% Path sims: 4.9% Win rate: 64.2%
Germany Germany If reached: <0.1% Path sims: <0.1% Win rate: 25.0%

R16

Belgium Belgium If reached: 46.7% Path sims: 14.8% Win rate: 32.4%
Egypt Egypt If reached: 10.9% Path sims: 3.4% Win rate: 52.0%
Czechia Czechia If reached: 7.9% Path sims: 2.5% Win rate: 47.7%
South Korea South Korea If reached: 7.4% Path sims: 2.4% Win rate: 47.0%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 7.3% Path sims: 2.3% Win rate: 37.3%

QF

Spain Spain If reached: 39.5% Path sims: 5.0% Win rate: 17.5%
England England If reached: 9.7% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 24.7%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 9.5% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 36.0%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 8.4% Path sims: 1.1% Win rate: 18.4%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 7.9% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 35.1%

SF

France France If reached: 24.7% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 16.5%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 13.3% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 26.3%
Germany Germany If reached: 10.7% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 29.5%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 7.8% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 15.9%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 6.9% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 41.0%

Final

England England If reached: 15.6% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 17.1%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 14.4% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 21.1%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 11.4% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 26.7%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 9.5% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 32.0%
Spain Spain If reached: 6.8% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 27.8%

Squad

Current squad

26 players
Pos Player Age Height Club Value
GK Dayne St. Clair 29 1,91m Inter Miami CF €3.5m
GK Maxime Crépeau 32 1,81m Orlando City SC €2.0m
GK Owen Goodman 22 1,93m Barnsley FC €550k
LB Alphonso Davies 26 1,85m Bayern Munich €40.0m
RB Alistair Johnston 27 1,80m Celtic FC €8.0m
CB Moïse Bombito 26 1,91m OGC Nice €8.0m
CB Alfie Jones 28 1,90m Middlesbrough FC €6.0m
CB Derek Cornelius 28 1,87m Olympique Marseille €2.5m
CB Joel Waterman 30 1,88m Chicago Fire FC €2.5m
RB Richie Laryea 31 1,75m Toronto FC €1.0m
CB Luc De Fougerolles 20 1,83m FCV Dender EH €1.0m
DM Niko Sigur 22 1,80m HNK Hajduk Split €4.0m
CM Ismaël Koné 23 1,88m US Sassuolo €25.0m
CM Stephen Eustaquio 29 1,78m Los Angeles FC €7.0m
CM Nathan-Dylan Saliba 22 1,73m RSC Anderlecht €6.0m
CM Jonathan Osorio 34 1,75m Toronto FC €1.2m
CM Mathieu Choinière 27 1,75m Los Angeles FC €800k
RW Tajon Buchanan 27 1,83m Villarreal CF €12.0m
LM Ali Ahmed 25 1,80m Norwich City €5.0m
CF Jonathan David 26 1,78m Juventus FC €30.0m
CF Promise David 24 1,95m Union Saint-Gilloise €17.0m
CF Tani Oluwaseyi 26 1,88m Villarreal CF €8.0m
CF Cyle Larin 31 1,88m Southampton FC €2.5m
LW Marcelo Flores 23 1,71m Tigres UANL €4.5m
LW Liam Millar 26 1,76m Hull City €3.0m
LW Jacob Shaffelburg 26 1,78m Los Angeles FC €3.0m