Group C

Brazil Brazil

This profile is based on 100,000 simulations using the current WC26 simulator engine. The numbers are a model snapshot, not a guarantee. Team ratings, squads and injury updates may change over time.

Champion 8.1%
Group qualification 96.6%
Squad value €909.2m
Avg age 29.2
Avg height 1.828m
Manager Carlo Ancelotti

Group

Finish probabilities

1st 64.1%
2nd 24.9%
3rd qualified 7.6%
3rd not qualified 1.4%
4th 2.1%

Tournament

Stage reach probabilities

R32 96.6%
R16 64.5%
QF 41.5%
SF 25.3%
Final 14.7%
Champion 8.1%

Conditional path

Path by group finish

Finish Sample R32R16QFSFFinalChampion
1st 64.1% 100.0%67.8%41.5%25.7%15.1%8.2%
2nd 24.9% 100.0%64.2%48.4%27.7%16.1%9.1%
3rd 8.9% 84.8%56.0%31.8%21.1%12.0%6.2%

Overall opponent pool

Most common opponents by round

If reached shows the opponent split among this team's matches in that round. All sims shows how often the matchup happens across the full 100,000-simulation snapshot.

R32

Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 32.0% All sims: 30.9% Win rate: 57.0%
Japan Japan If reached: 28.4% All sims: 27.5% Win rate: 68.4%
Sweden Sweden If reached: 25.5% All sims: 24.7% Win rate: 72.0%
Tunisia Tunisia If reached: 6.1% All sims: 5.9% Win rate: 89.4%
Germany Germany If reached: 2.6% All sims: 2.6% Win rate: 53.9%

R16

Norway Norway If reached: 16.9% All sims: 10.9% Win rate: 61.9%
France France If reached: 15.1% All sims: 9.7% Win rate: 44.2%
Germany Germany If reached: 10.6% All sims: 6.8% Win rate: 54.8%
Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 9.7% All sims: 6.2% Win rate: 69.8%
Senegal Senegal If reached: 9.4% All sims: 6.1% Win rate: 71.3%

QF

England England If reached: 21.4% All sims: 8.9% Win rate: 49.7%
France France If reached: 11.5% All sims: 4.8% Win rate: 44.1%
Germany Germany If reached: 8.4% All sims: 3.5% Win rate: 55.4%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 6.9% All sims: 2.9% Win rate: 69.4%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 6.2% All sims: 2.6% Win rate: 62.3%

SF

Argentina Argentina If reached: 18.9% All sims: 4.8% Win rate: 48.6%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 14.4% All sims: 3.6% Win rate: 51.8%
Spain Spain If reached: 14.3% All sims: 3.6% Win rate: 43.8%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 6.8% All sims: 1.7% Win rate: 61.9%
Uruguay Uruguay If reached: 6.0% All sims: 1.5% Win rate: 65.5%

Final

Spain Spain If reached: 15.7% All sims: 2.3% Win rate: 43.4%
France France If reached: 14.5% All sims: 2.1% Win rate: 41.5%
England England If reached: 7.2% All sims: 1.1% Win rate: 48.3%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 7.0% All sims: 1.0% Win rate: 47.6%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 6.0% All sims: 0.9% Win rate: 49.3%

Finish 1st

Brazil opponent pool if finishing 1st

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Japan Japan If reached: 32.8% Path sims: 32.8% Win rate: 68.2%
Sweden Sweden If reached: 30.2% Path sims: 30.2% Win rate: 71.8%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 28.8% Path sims: 28.8% Win rate: 57.2%
Tunisia Tunisia If reached: 8.1% Path sims: 8.1% Win rate: 89.5%

R16

Norway Norway If reached: 23.7% Path sims: 16.1% Win rate: 61.8%
France France If reached: 19.0% Path sims: 12.9% Win rate: 44.0%
Germany Germany If reached: 15.6% Path sims: 10.6% Win rate: 54.9%
Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 14.3% Path sims: 9.7% Win rate: 69.8%
Senegal Senegal If reached: 13.3% Path sims: 9.0% Win rate: 71.3%

QF

England England If reached: 33.4% Path sims: 13.9% Win rate: 49.7%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 10.1% Path sims: 4.2% Win rate: 69.7%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 9.7% Path sims: 4.0% Win rate: 62.3%
South Korea South Korea If reached: 5.9% Path sims: 2.4% Win rate: 74.5%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 3.8% Path sims: 1.6% Win rate: 66.1%

SF

Argentina Argentina If reached: 25.3% Path sims: 6.5% Win rate: 48.2%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 18.3% Path sims: 4.7% Win rate: 51.6%
Spain Spain If reached: 7.6% Path sims: 2.0% Win rate: 44.6%
Uruguay Uruguay If reached: 7.0% Path sims: 1.8% Win rate: 65.4%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 5.6% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 67.5%

Final

Spain Spain If reached: 20.0% Path sims: 3.0% Win rate: 43.9%
France France If reached: 17.3% Path sims: 2.6% Win rate: 40.9%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 7.3% Path sims: 1.1% Win rate: 56.7%
Germany Germany If reached: 6.8% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 55.8%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 6.5% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 58.6%

Finish 2nd

Brazil opponent pool if finishing 2nd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 50.0% Path sims: 50.0% Win rate: 56.6%
Japan Japan If reached: 25.8% Path sims: 25.8% Win rate: 69.1%
Sweden Sweden If reached: 21.3% Path sims: 21.3% Win rate: 72.9%
Tunisia Tunisia If reached: 2.9% Path sims: 2.9% Win rate: 88.9%

R16

Mexico Mexico If reached: 18.0% Path sims: 11.6% Win rate: 68.1%
South Korea South Korea If reached: 16.9% Path sims: 10.8% Win rate: 74.2%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 16.6% Path sims: 10.7% Win rate: 68.3%
Canada Canada If reached: 16.0% Path sims: 10.3% Win rate: 78.1%
Czechia Czechia If reached: 13.9% Path sims: 8.9% Win rate: 78.5%

QF

France France If reached: 34.0% Path sims: 16.5% Win rate: 43.9%
Germany Germany If reached: 20.5% Path sims: 9.9% Win rate: 55.2%
Norway Norway If reached: 9.0% Path sims: 4.4% Win rate: 62.4%
Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 5.5% Path sims: 2.6% Win rate: 69.1%
Ivory Coast Ivory Coast If reached: 4.1% Path sims: 2.0% Win rate: 70.1%

SF

Spain Spain If reached: 28.6% Path sims: 7.9% Win rate: 43.3%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 12.4% Path sims: 3.4% Win rate: 61.4%
England England If reached: 7.0% Path sims: 1.9% Win rate: 51.2%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 5.9% Path sims: 1.6% Win rate: 54.2%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 5.4% Path sims: 1.5% Win rate: 50.5%

Final

Argentina Argentina If reached: 15.5% Path sims: 2.5% Win rate: 48.9%
England England If reached: 13.5% Path sims: 2.2% Win rate: 48.7%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 11.0% Path sims: 1.8% Win rate: 48.4%
France France If reached: 8.9% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 44.4%
Spain Spain If reached: 6.4% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 40.0%

Finish 3rd

Brazil opponent pool if finishing 3rd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Germany Germany If reached: 33.7% Path sims: 28.5% Win rate: 53.9%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 15.7% Path sims: 13.3% Win rate: 65.5%
Ecuador Ecuador If reached: 14.9% Path sims: 12.6% Win rate: 70.7%
Ivory Coast Ivory Coast If reached: 13.3% Path sims: 11.3% Win rate: 70.7%
South Korea South Korea If reached: 11.8% Path sims: 10.0% Win rate: 76.3%

R16

France France If reached: 29.5% Path sims: 16.5% Win rate: 45.5%
England England If reached: 19.2% Path sims: 10.7% Win rate: 46.7%
Norway Norway If reached: 11.7% Path sims: 6.6% Win rate: 62.3%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 6.4% Path sims: 3.6% Win rate: 62.9%
Senegal Senegal If reached: 6.0% Path sims: 3.4% Win rate: 69.9%

QF

Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 18.0% Path sims: 5.7% Win rate: 59.8%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 10.5% Path sims: 3.3% Win rate: 62.8%
Japan Japan If reached: 9.4% Path sims: 3.0% Win rate: 64.6%
Sweden Sweden If reached: 6.5% Path sims: 2.1% Win rate: 70.1%
Scotland Scotland If reached: 6.5% Path sims: 2.1% Win rate: 82.1%

SF

Spain Spain If reached: 21.1% Path sims: 4.5% Win rate: 43.2%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 12.1% Path sims: 2.6% Win rate: 52.6%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 11.5% Path sims: 2.4% Win rate: 49.8%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 8.6% Path sims: 1.8% Win rate: 59.9%
Uruguay Uruguay If reached: 5.5% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 67.3%

Final

Spain Spain If reached: 11.7% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 41.6%
France France If reached: 10.4% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 41.4%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 10.3% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 40.9%
England England If reached: 9.4% Path sims: 1.1% Win rate: 43.6%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 7.7% Path sims: 0.9% Win rate: 39.0%

Squad

Current squad

26 players
Pos Player Age Height Club Value
GK Alisson 34 1,93m Liverpool FC €17.0m
GK Ederson 32 1,88m Fenerbahce €10.0m
GK Weverton 38 1,89m Grêmio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense €700k
CB Gabriel 28 1,90m Arsenal FC €75.0m
RB Wesley 22 1,78m AS Roma €40.0m
CB Bremer 29 1,88m Juventus FC €35.0m
CB Marquinhos 32 1,83m Paris Saint-Germain €30.0m
CB Roger Ibañez 27 1,85m Al-Ahli SFC €17.0m
CB Léo Pereira 30 1,89m CR Flamengo €12.0m
LB Douglas Santos 32 1,75m Zenit St. Petersburg €7.5m
CB Danilo (DF) 34 1,84m CR Flamengo €2.0m
LB Alex Sandro 35 1,80m CR Flamengo €1.0m
DM Fabinho 32 1,88m Al-Ittihad Club €13.0m
DM Casemiro 34 1,85m Manchester United €8.0m
CM Bruno Guimarães 28 1,82m Newcastle United €75.0m
CM Danilo 25 1,76m Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas €32.0m
RW Rayan 19 1,87m AFC Bournemouth €40.0m
RW Luiz Henrique 25 1,82m Zenit St. Petersburg €24.0m
AM Lucas Paquetá 28 1,80m CR Flamengo €32.0m
AM Neymar 34 1,75m Santos FC €8.0m
CF Igor Thiago 24 1,91m Brentford FC €50.0m
CF Endrick 19 1,73m Olympique Lyon €35.0m
LW Vinicius Junior 25 1,76m Real Madrid €150.0m
LW Raphinha 29 1,76m FC Barcelona €80.0m
LW Matheus Cunha 27 1,83m Manchester United €70.0m
LW Gabriel Martinelli 24 1,78m Arsenal FC €45.0m